1/10 The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276M/day in lost exports and disrupt $159M/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13B/month.
Over 90% of Iran's $109.7B in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Oil/gas accounts for 80% of government export earnings and 23.7% of GDP. Kharg Island alone generates ~$53B/year, or as I noted to @TIME, "$78 billion a year in energy revenue.
🛑ماذا يريد الرئيس ترمب؟ (أدناه بناء على تصريحاته)
🔰يريد أن يعيد صناعة الرقائق الإلكترونية وأشباه الموصلات للولايات المتحدة بدلا من إنتاجها في آسيا
🔰 يريد أن يبيع منتجات زراعية أميركية للهند، وهم أمر رفضه الهنود تمام.
🔰 يريد أن تقوم الشركات الآسيوية بتوقيع عقود غاز مسال طويلة المدة مع الشركات الأميركية وشراء المزيد من الغاز المسال الأميركي.
🔰يريد أن تقوم الدول الآسيوية بشراء المزيد من النفط الأميركي.
(أدناه بناء على استراتيجة الأمن القومي التي نشرت في شهر نوفمبر الماضي)
🔰الهيمنة على العالم تتم عبر الذكاء الاصطناعي ووفرة إمدادات الطاقة، (ولكن لاذكاء صناعي بدون طاقة)
🔰الهيمنة على العالم تتطلب أن تكون الطاقة رخيصة لشركات الذكاء الاصطناعي الأميركية ومرتفعة على الدول المنافسة.
🔸ماسبق يتطلب السيطرة على كل المضائق المائية. تمت السيطرة على قناة بنما، والبحر الأحمر بطرفيه، والآن مضيق هرمز للتحكم بتدفق وتكاليف مصادر الطاقة للدول المنافسة. والمتبقي الممر الشمالي القريب من القطب، وهذا يتطلب السيطرة على جرينلاند.
هل حقق ترمب الأهداف أعلاه؟ حققها كلها:
🪶وقف تصدير "الهليوم" من الخليج ضرب صناعة الشرائح الإلكترونية وأشباه الموصلات الآسيوية. الولايات المتحدة هي أكبر منتج للهليوم في العالم!
🪶وقف تصدير "الأسمدة" للهند، يضرب القطاع الزارعي في الهند. ولكن الأمر أكبر: صناعة الأسمدة داخل الهند تعتمد على الغاز والغازات السائلة من الخليج. هذه ضربت أيضا. هذا سيعطي ترمب فرصة لتحقيق هدف إجبار الهند على شراء المنتجات الزراعية الأميركية.
🪶وقف صادرات "الميثانول" من الخليج ضرب عددا من الصناعات في الصين وكوريا الجنوبية واليا��ان.
🪶اتضح الآن لكل الشركات الآسيوية ان المخاطرة على الاعتماد على "النفط والغاز المسال" من الخليج عالية، ومن ثم فإن التنويع يتطلب زيادة الاعتماد على النفط والغاز المسال الأميركيين. الولايات المتحدة هي أكبر منتج للنفط والغاز المسال في العالم.
🪶الآن اتضح أن ماحصل في فنزويلا وتكديس النفط الفنزويلي في المواني الأميركية كان للتعويض عن النفط العراقي الذي لن يأتي للولايات المتحدة بسبب إغلاق مضيق هرمز! كنت غبيا عندما اعتقدت أن ترمب وبيوت التجارة العالمية التي باعها النفط الفنزويلي يجدون صعوبة في تسويقه. إضافة إلى ذلك، هذه الشركات تبيعه الآن بضعف سعر الشراء!
🪶من خلال تقديم التأمين للسفن ومرافقة البحرية الأميركية لها في المضيق، هذا يعني أن ترمب أحتل المضيق بشكل غير مباشر وأصبح يتحكم بتدفق الطاقة للصين وغيرها، وتكاليف التأمين والحماية سترفع تكاليف النفط والغاز المسال المصدرين من الخليج. بعبارة أخرى، الهدف هو رفع التكلفة.
باختصار، ترمب حقق كل أهدافه باستخدام إيران كحجة، لهذا فإنه يتوقع أن تنتهي الحرب مع بقاء النظام الإيراني!
Witkoff:
In the first meeting with the Iranians, they told us directly, without shame, that they control 460 kilograms of 60% enriched material and are aware that it could produce 11 nuclear bombs.
Homes in my neighborhood that sold for $750,000 exactly one year ago now have Zillow estimates of $675,000 and comparable homes for sale all around them support that Zillow estimate
When buying in a down market you don’t realize how quickly equity can evaporate
Activist: "Cattle farming is incredibly wasteful."
Farmer: "Is it? List the inputs."
Activist: "What?"
Farmer: "For my farm. What goes in?"
Activist: "Feed, water, land..."
Farmer: "Rain, grass that grows for free, and land that won't grow anything else. Where's the waste?"
Activist: "But the resources..."
Farmer: "Are solar energy and rainfall. Both happen whether there's a cow here or not."
Activist: "You're oversimplifying."
Farmer: "I'm being accurate. Sunlight hits grass. Grass grows. Cow eats grass. Cow becomes beef. Which step wastes resources?"
Activist: "The land could grow crops."
Farmer: "This land? 30-degree slope, clay soil, 45 inches of rain? Show me the crop."
🔥 BREAKING: The White House just said Marco Rubio's blockbuster speech in Munich is getting MASSIVE PRAISE worldwide, posting all 22 minutes of it
Rubio dropped some absolutely incredible quotes in front of Europe.
KEEP DEFENDING THE WEST, MARCO! 🇺🇸
Joe Rogan just dropped a MOAB on the Democrat immigration narrative — playing a clip of Hillary Clinton from 2008 that OBLITERATES their current talking points.
As @joerogan pointed out, the policies Democrats now call President Trump a “Nazi” for enforcing were standard party lines nearly twenty years ago.
ROGAN: “I know it’s on YouTube, but it’s this amazing campaign speech.”
“Listen to this…I love this one!”
[Plays clip of Clinton speech]
CLINTON: “I think we’ve got to have tough conditions. Tell people to come out of the shadows. If they’ve committed a crime, deport them! No questions asked, they’re gone!”
ROGAN: “Cheers! Cheers from the Democrats.”
CLINTON: “If they’ve been working and are law-abiding, we should say here are the conditions for you staying; you have to pay a stiff fine because you came here illegally, you have back taxes and you have to try to learn English and you have to wait in line!”
[Rogan cracks up in laughter]
ROGAN: “You’re gonna learn English, everybody’s cheering!”
“Now, you’re a Nazi.”
“That is more right wing than Marjorie Taylor Greene.”
Sentiments of Venezuelans
I’m going to say this once, and I don’t care if it makes people uncomfortable.
If you have never lived in Venezuela
If you did not grow up there
If you did not watch your country collapse in real time
If you did not stand in food lines
If you did not watch your parents lose everything they built
If you did not have to leave your home with nothing
Then shut the fuck up.
You do not have an opinion.
Your opinion does not matter.
And you don’t get to lecture anyone about what’s happening there.
I’m Venezuelan.
I lived there most of my life until my early twenties.
I watched my country go from a functioning democracy to full blown socialism right in front of my eyes.
This is not politics to me.
This is trauma.
Before socialism, Venezuela was not perfect, but it worked.
There was trade.
There was money coming in.
There was investment from the US.
There were jobs.
There was food.
There was medicine.
My family had five businesses.
We had our home
We had investments.
We had a future.
Then the government started nationalizing everything.
Private companies were taken.
Foreign investors were pushed out.
Imports were blocked.
Price controls destroyed production.
Corruption exploded.
And everything died.
Not slowly.
Violently.
People didn’t suddenly become poor because of “capitalism” or “the US” or whatever bullshit slogan people like to repeat online.
They became poor because socialism destroyed incentives, destroyed production, destroyed trust, and destroyed hope.
People today in Venezuela are not debating ideology.
They are trying to survive.
They are trying to find food.
Trying to find medication.
Trying to keep their families alive.
So when I see people in the West posting from comfortable homes, full fridges, stable currencies, and safe streets talking about “imperialism” or “US bad” or “Trump this or that”
No.
It’s not complicated.
You’re just ignorant.
China is not rebuilding Venezuela.
Russia is not rebuilding Venezuela.
Cartels are not rebuilding Venezuela.
They are stealing.
They are extracting.
They are draining what’s left.
If the US comes in and reinvests
If refineries get rebuilt
If infrastructure gets restored
If imports open back up
If food, water, and medicine become accessible again
If people can work and earn with dignity
Then yes.
Let them take all the oil they want.
Because at least something gets built instead of destroyed.
This is something to celebrate.
Not because it’s perfect.
But because for the first time in a long time, there is hope.
Hope that families can eat.
Hope that people don’t have to flee their country.
Hope that Venezuela can function again.
If you’ve never lived through a country collapsing
If you’ve never watched socialism destroy everything around you
If you’ve never had to leave your home because staying meant starvation
Then again
Shut the fuck up.
This isn’t theory.
This isn’t politics.
This is lived experience.
By Stephen Subero
Lovers of big government trash capitalism.
But @conceptualjames points out that capitalism CREATES wealth.
So why don’t they like it?
"It requires people to be free,” explains Lindsay, “you can't control people who are free.”
More in our full interview:
I show my ID to fly.
I show my ID to drink.
I show my ID to drive.
I show my ID to marry.
I show my ID to buy weed.
I show my ID to gamble.
I show my ID to get Benadryl.
I show my ID to work.
Why in the hell wouldn’t I need an ID to vote?
This is such a good point. If you actually watch Charlie’s events—as opposed to the fake summaries—they are one of the few places with open and honest dialogue between left and right. He would answer any question and talk to everyone.
Of all possible targets, they chose Charlie Kirk, a man who, despite holding strong views, was among the few political influencers who always made the effort to engage civilly and in good faith with people who disagreed with him. Perhaps this is why he was feared.