Cassandra Unchained

Official X account for Michael Burry, MD, called
"Cassandra" by Warren Buffett. Now on Substack

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

$FNMA, $FMCC, @realDonaldTrump, and the Housing Crisis

Adjustable rate loans get in trouble when borrowers have to step up to a higher fixed rate and cannot refinance.
https://t.co/ifequlEP9C

Fixed-rate mortgages get in trouble because the borrower’s income falls. Increasingly, there is a economically sensitive systemic risk manifested throughout multi-family in the form of single-earner households.
That fixed-rate loans are leading the delinquency train is a foreboding sign.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Kakashii is a must-subscribe. Bull or bear, his research must-read, must-think, must-act material.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Not surprising in the least. From Bloomberg-

One-quarter of men aged 18-29 said they trade stocks daily, and almost two-thirds of them (64%) report feeling like failures, according to a study of 2,000 men published Wednesday by the Institute for Family Studies, a pro-marriage think tank. The findings were strikingly similar to outcomes among men who gamble: Of the 23% of young men who said they gambled daily, including on sports and events, 66% reported similar angst, according to survey, which asked the young men a variety of questions about their personal behaviors and outlooks. Daily fantasy sports and pornography use were similarly correlated to feelings of failure, the survey found

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Trading Post 8/6/2026 Two Shorts, 3 Earnings Reports with 1 Add & 2 Holds
https://t.co/kjhZinfmOQ
This is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Am I the last bear?

When history's contemporaneous writers can find no other target.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Correct, we have circuit breakers now, a more activist government+Fed, a President selling stock tips, lots different amidst the decline of western civilization. Nevertheless, step function risk is on the table because of the ubiquity of the narrative, over-investment, valuations, pernicious inflation and other fundamentals about which I have been writing. Importantly, a step function move in markets is the one thing vol-targeting and pod shops cannot handle. Even the ODTE market would lose its risk management center into the whorling gyre.

This should be clear from my last post. The machinery of the market would blow a gasket and capital titans would be running around like chickens with their heads cut off. Chaos would make an appearance and maybe stay awhile. The trigger, as in 1987, 2000, 2007, and 1929, need not show up, and by its absence push the boom on til the last bear is about to turn off the lights.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Permabear Michael Burry Ignores a Crucial Fact About US Stocks - Bloomberg https://t.co/ix8GY9rXO4

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

@Stocktwits you keep bringing this up but you got that wrong.

https://t.co/wXJfpRJlyY

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

To badly split an infinitive.

This is the nature of all things.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Torsten Slok at Apollo has three great charts today.

"Data-center capex adds 1.7 percentage points in just two years, from 1.4% of GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in 2027, or roughly 0.85 percentage points a year. Housing's quickest phase, from 5.1% in 2002 to 6.6% in 2005, ran at 0.5 percentage points a year, and telecom's at around 0.15. The AI cycle is building at close to twice the pace of the housing boom at its fastest.

The same arithmetic runs in reverse: housing's unwind, from 6.2% of GDP in early 2006 to 3.0% by the end of 2008, is what made that recession severe, while telecom's much smaller reversal produced the mildest one.

A cycle that builds at 0.85 percentage points a year can unwind at a similar pace, and that, rather than the buildout itself, is the macro risk if AI demand disappoints."

https://t.co/Z1JFXCf2A0

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

$FLUT is down $14-15 to rougly $90 after reporting earnings and a CEO change.
https://t.co/9uZJN5v9nu
So, here is the August 5, 2026 Trading Post - One Buy, One Sale, One Reason

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

There is no doubt that right now there are shortages, no doubt that $CAT is really doing unbelievably well, $PLTR is really filling acute CYA needs, $NVDA’s margins & prices really cause nosebleeds. There’s really gold in them thar hills. Just pointing out future ghost towns.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

When @CNBC said I was short nearly $1 trillion Palantir last year and got Alex all
In a huff, it seemed a 100x mistake.

I no longer believe it was a mistake. #CNBC has options reporters that know what is up, and CNBC has an agenda.

Of course, I wish I had been short $1 trillion Palantir.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

My full quote.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

I Helped Run Lululemon. Companies Need to Stop Kidding Themselves About A.I. https://t.co/fcOChJtGiT

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Trading Post August 4, 2026 My Options
The market, a good number of trades, and a follow up.
https://t.co/CJW8iNIajz

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Wake up!

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

[Abridged] Foundations: Market Structure, Volatility Targeting, Pod Shops & Other Gremlins https://t.co/wI8oh33sEQ
For Market Understanding & Air Superiority in Under 1500 Words

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Genius is found at the cusp of disciplines.
https://t.co/KlYxxlgh7I

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

The idea that stocks go up because of currency debasement made necessary by debt is a dual justification for both crypto and stonks HODL among the WSB crowd. This is an extrapolation from a kernel of truth, as are most strongly held beliefs.
Market Structure & Value
https://t.co/qLbDE9jXjP
Currency debasement is not new.
So I analyzed this at length and wrote about it.