I hear people saying they missed the rally. The $SPY has yet to even break out of its base. A new bull market has barely begun yet alone ended. Stick to the stock setups. The best buy points have yet to arrive. We added some select names. Breakouts are working on balance, but still not at the point where momentum is strongest and participation is remains relatively narrow. Short term indexes are overbought. Our long term $SPY model is on a buy.๐ Pullbacks on the $SPY should be contained to 3-5%. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
Yesterday, markets rallied strongly across the board following the lower than expected CPI data. Headline CPI inflation moderateed, led by falling gasoline prices. Core inflation also slowed, but underlying pressures are still elevated and above the Fedโs target. The report makes further rate hikes unwarranted, but still supports restrictive-for-longer Fed policy.
The small caps led as the Russell 2000 closed higher +5.44% which is the strongest single day in over a year. The Nasdaq and NYSE both had strong accumulation days closing +2.37% & +2.14% on well above average volume.
Breadth was also encouraging as advancers outpaced declining issues by better than 9:1 on the NYSE and greater than 3:1 on the Nasdaq. We also had advancing volume increase by more than 10:1 on the NYSE and nearly 4:1 on the Nasdaq. New 52 highs/lows also started to register the highest reading since the summer, and the percentage of stocks above their respective 50-day moving average surged higher.
The improvement in breadth means that there is the potential for an expansion and proliferation of buyable stocks.
During the past couple of weeks, we've been adding select names. Yesterday had a number of stocks gap through pivot points as the overall market gapped higher. The indexes are getting extended and overbought. Longer term this is a positive. In the short term, we may need to digest the run up.
This is where traders get frustrated and break discipline... when the indexes take off but there are few stocks to buy. You MUST learn to get off the indexes and stay tuned into the individual stocks. Don't let the indexes pressure into breaking discipline. Until stocks offer buy points based on your own criteria... YOU WAIT! And, even when they do, you MUST "earn the right" to play larger, starting with small "pilot" buys and only increasing overall exposure and position sizing on the heels of traction. Be patient and exercise discipline. That's how you trade like a champion. I assure you, champion output will ONLY come from champion input.
Yes, you can look back in hindsight and see all the things you could have done, but risk is managed in real time. You may get lucky and even get by for a while being undisciplined, but it's just a matter of time before it all goes down the drain if you are undisciplined and try to take the seemingly "easy" or obvious road.
If there is one thing I've learned after 40-years in this business, it's this... what takes you to the promise land easily, takes you to hell hard. Only those who manage the downside last in this business. You MUST create your own odds by cutting off the left side of the bell curve, which results in asymmetric leverage. In the short run, it can be frustrating. But in the long run, it works... and the real frustration comes to those who blow their accounts up chasing the market instead of letting the trades come to them.
This post is more valuable than most can or will likely appreciate. I built a 40-year career and a fortune on it.
@markminervini Brilliant strategy. Although free rolling?
I buy 2 shares for $25.05 each
I sell one share for $27.02 profit $1.97
I set my new stop at $25.05 Free rolling.
In your example if the stop is hit at $23.15 there is a small loss?
Math not my strong point. So help me follow please.
@hussmanjp John is seems what you say and what you do are different You are not congruent
You should be taking the big risk and go to 90% cash
I guess you can always say I told you so to your investors If any of them believe you they best head for the exit before you go down with your ship
@Haqiqatjou@GadSaad It is not justified. It is not justifiable.
The point is to stop war for the next 50 to 100 years or so any enemy must be completely destroyed. A peoples will to resist must be destroyed. Sadly the psychopaths on both sides take control in Wartime. Hellish.
@rationalaussie Its starting to look like prep for War. The West cant match the East and Middle East for shear infantry numbers.
Albo is fuking our Children over with this just in case imigration.
Failure to House your people is a critical failure.
@TracyWesterman Everyone is racist We can still get along. Make progress. Support each other. Being racist is just a human trate. All you peeps claiming not to be racist need to have a look inside yourselves Your all dishonest with yourselves Any difference at all will do Yellow shirts will do
@rationalaussie There is one elite group that owns all the rare coins. No one else can afford them. This elite group sells fractions of a coin whenever they want to buy goods from the other 99.
One day the 99 ate the 1's for breakfast.
@RayDalio There is something that trumps all that.
"Everyone acts in their own best interest."
I add to that.
"And they are entitled to"
I learnt this the hard way. Getting effed over in the Business World.
It seems to apply 100% of the time.
I expect it now.
@abcnews Just adapt Singapore's HDR policies and mythologies and tweak it to our needs. The focus is to develop no frill and low cost high density properties for the population that can't afford anything and just need a basic shelter to live in. It works perfectly there.