Depnep

[Robin Nakamoto @RobinNakamoto]

$58k by Thanksgiving Day https://t.co/go3WDYiM8H

[BuyTheDiplo @BuyTheDiplo]

So here are my thoughts. Yes, $ETH is red today alongside most crypto, but seeing $SBET down ~15% while $BMNR is off ~9% is brutal. When $BMNR outperforms on green days because it runs a tighter float and carries higher $ETH concentration per share, that makes sense. But the inverse, $SBET underperforming even more on red days, feels like a confidence tax. You’re not crazy to be upset.

$SBET holders (me included) are pissed because the story is right (build an ETH treasury), but the execution and communication keep creating fear of surprise dilution. We all think this can recover next week as the dust settles, but shareholder confidence needs a real plan, not just tweets or a lack luster conference call like they had this morning. If they want a premium to mNAV, they have to earn trust day in and day out.

Here’s where $BMNR is currently winning: tighter perceived float, clearer cadence, and fewer mixed signals about when stock is being sold versus when ETH is being bought. $BMNR projects discipline; $SBET often feels like “buy ETH, sell stock, repeat” with investors guessing about the timing. Add $SBET’s complex accounting noise (LsETH impairments) and you get extra volatility on both green and red days.

What’s stopping frustrated $SBET holders from rotating into $BMNR or just $ETH itself? Honestly, not much. If $SBET trades at a fat discount to a credible mNAV and then proves it can reduce share growth while still growing ETH-per-share, that discount can close fast, that’s the bull case to stay. But without transparency and issuance discipline, rotating to $BMNR (cleaner signals) or straight ETH (no issuance risk) is a rational reaction for many.

The deals $SBET strikes must include real lock-ups and leak-out schedules so “big investors” can’t flip paper into every green day. Spell out those restrictions in plain English. Pair that with buyback authority that only triggers when the stock trades at a steep discount to verified mNAV. That tells holders, “we won’t just sell you out, we’ll buy alongside you when the market misprices us.”

Pause the ATM on days like today. If the stock is down double digits and ETH is already weak, don’t add supply. Publish a capital-formation calendar and a 10b5-1 style ATM plan so investors know when issuance can happen, and when it won’t. Commit to a weekly “wallet + mNAV” sheet: total ETH, staked vs liquid, ETH-per-basic-share, live mNAV per share, and any share count changes. Keep it boring, mechanical, and auditable.

Clean up the message around accounting. One slide, every time: why the LsETH impairment is non-cash, how it reverses, what price paths matter. Then reiterate the real drivers, ETH held, ETH-per-share, staking yield run-rate, share-count trajectory…and de-emphasize the legacy media business unless it’s material.

Red screens hurt. But this is fixable. $SBET can be the most efficient public wrapper for ETH if it adopts BMNR-level discipline, enforces lock-ups, slows issuance on weak tapes, and gives us transparent, per-share math every Tuesday. Do that, and the market will stop charging a “confidence penalty.” We will recover, but they have to meet us halfway.

[Depnep @michealpeat]

@Debussy100 Tbh this is what we want

[Cryptic Trades @CrypticTrades_]

I’ve just identified the Final Confluence for a MAJOR market shift!

This upcoming shift will have a significant impact on $BTC, $SPX, $GOLD, #Miners, and #Altcoins.

Let’s get 1,000 Likes ❤️ and 250 Retweets 🔁 on this post, and I’ll share a detailed thread breaking down everything I’m currently looking at, as well as the key factors driving this pivotal moment!

[Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈 @cantonmeow]

Just finished another episode of The Cat & The Matt, with thoughts on a possible bear market developing, rotation, #Bitcoin, #Altcoins, global liquidity, $TSLA, $PLTR, Wilt Chamberlain, TA of Chinese stocks in Chinese, that we're sorry... @matthughes13
https://t.co/ADbuL3sbrI

[Dennis Porter @Dennis_Porter_]

THE STATES WILL LEAD 🇺🇸

[Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈 @cantonmeow]

Sentiments are at extremes, and things are looking very interesting here with #Bitcoin #Altcoins $MSTR $COIN and the #Bitcoin miners. I still don't think the cycle is over, and here are my thoughts.

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

#BTC

I have been very open about my BEAR lean since $102k and even made a 2-hour video last week explaining how we haven't seen any Bull signs yet & that seeing these current levels made a lot of sense.

With that said, nothing would be more comical than for #Bitcoin to recover by the week's end for a dramatic weekly scale SHAKEOUT

A trader must plan for every scenario and be prepared to change that plan if the market dictates. The market is going to do what the market is going to do. Your job is to react appropriately, not predict perfectly.

So, always have a plan. Execute the plan. But, always expect the plan to go off the rails. Then, be ready to adapt.

“No plan survives first contact with the enemy.”

[Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈 @cantonmeow]

Fun times here with @matthughes13 tonight on The Cat and The Matt!
#Macro #Market #GlobalLiquidity #China #Bitcoin $XRP $ADA $SOL $COIN $MSTR $MARA $CLSK $TSLA
https://t.co/VHeumpUcQ4

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

MicroStrategy’s unorthodox capital strategy now includes preferred equity: $STRK. It’s a bold play for the holy grail: to harness $MSTR volatility w/o dilution. Whether it succeeds depends on time horizon.

Here’s my theory—and why I’m bullish on STRK (hint: it’s less about BTC):

[Bluntz @Bluntz_Capital]

$sol pullback has also unfolded in a clear abc with the b wave as a triangle, should be enroute to ath from here imo.

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

💥 Trump to designate cryptocurrency as a "national priority," - Bloomberg

[Mark He @RealMarkHe]

How much do I think @CleanSpark_Inc will be worth?

TL;DR: $32, $51, $84, $168 & $336, depending on BTC price.

I see too many $BTC mining bulls only use technical analysis to project $CLSK's stock price, and they give numbers like $120 or $150 etc..

Yes, everything is possible, but I just don't think simply looking at past stock performance and drawing some support/resistance lines can predict the future.

Anyways, let's look at some numbers. Based on $CLSK's latest December mining update release:

- $BTC mined in Dec 2024: 668
- Month-end operating hashrate: 39.1 EH/s
- Monthly average hashrate: 35.52 EH/s

This means the average BTC mined per EH/s is 18.806.

@Cleanspark has guided for 50HS/s in 1H25.

If we take an average between 39.1HS/s and 50HS/s, the expected average hashrate for the 1H will be 44.55 HS/s.

This means they will likely mine 837 BTC per month (18.806 (HS/s/BTC) x 44.55 HS/s = 837 BTC/month).

If $BTC stays at $94,500:

- Future revenue: 837 BTC x 12 months x $94,500/BTC = $949,158,000, or $949M

- If the Net Profit margin (NPM) is 50%, then the net income (NI) will be $474.5M.

- When P/E is 20, then the market cap (Mcap) will be $9.49B, or
- $32 per share.

If $BTC goes to $150K:

- Future revenue: $1.5B
- NI when NPM is 50%: $750M
- When P/E is 20, Mcap will be $15B, or
- $51 per share

If $BTC goes to $250K:
- Future revenue: 2.5B
- NI when NPM is 50%: 1.25B
- When P/E is 20, Mcap will be $25B, or
- $84 per share

If $BTC goes to $500K, then $168 per share.
If $BTC goes to $1M, then $336 per share.

I understand the numbers do not include all of the costs and you may argue the stock price forecast is too high; however, you also need to consider the following:
- $BTC existing HODL appreciation
- $BTC future sales - less or no dilution will be required
- A lot of the costs are fixed (some of the existing costs were one-time cost only)
- Growth for 2025 has been fully funded, hence no dilution is needed.

They may still dilute for further growth, but they can also use converts to delay dilution, which will be insignificant after conversion.

Of course I want $CLSK will go to $120 or $150, as I have a shitload of $CLSK myself. In my opinion, they are on track of becoming the #1 mining company. From some perspectives, they are already the #1.

I just don't like providing price targets without any basis.

I trust @Cleanspark's management team will continue to execute, beat their targets, and generate shareholders' value.

@Micro2Macr0 @smatthewschultz @ZachKBradford @GaryVec @theBTCMiningGuy @sebastian_ski

[Depnep @michealpeat]

@Debussy100 Totally agreee! Inflation is a fu*ked up!

[Depnep @michealpeat]

@cantonmeow @CyclesWithBach @ewtracker @matthughes13 @dannycheng2022 @Micro2Macr0 @theBTCMiningGuy @AtradeZ_ How many days is the halt?

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

BREAKING‼️ Cantor Fitzgerald Chairman says #Bitcoin will be regulated by the CFTC and will treat it as a financial asset.

This will pave the way for ALL trad-fi companies going "head first" into Bitcoin.🤔

[Depnep @michealpeat]

@TheTradingChamp What do you mean by this?

[Depnep @michealpeat]

@TheTradingChamp Listened to you man🙏 sold with 70% profit. Let the haters hate👍

[BITCOINLFG® @bitcoinlfgo]

BIG BREAKING 🚨

THE SPOT #BITCOIN & #ETHEREUM ETF IN HONG KONG ARE EXPECTED TO ATTRACT MORE THAN $5B IN THE FIRST 3 MONTHS. 👀🔥