Mike Mills

Mike Mills hosts The Texas Real Estate & Finance Podcast and Sales
Branch Manager Core Community Mortgage
Equal Housing Opportunity NMLS#756263

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

@MG_MBS @MG_MBS - Love your site! It’s my daily rate bible and more accurate than anything else out there. You guys do great work! Keep it up.

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

Retail spending is up 24% since 2021.

After inflation, people are buying the same amount of stuff.

The number everybody quotes counts dollars. It doesn't count what those dollars brought home.

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

The 10-year hit 5.1% today, highest since 2007.

Inflation's the driver. Builders are pulling back. DFW prices are flat, and 53% of Dallas sales had seller concessions last month.

Rates can change. The price you pay can't.

NMLS #756263 · Not a quote.

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

I pulled all of this in 30 minutes with AI: MLS data, Texas A&M and 140,000 federal loan records.

Full breakdown:
https://t.co/RBX08eBUK2

The Skill that runs it monthly is free. DM me.

Mike Mills NMLS #756263 · GVC Core Community Mortgage NMLS #2334

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

The 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.26% today, a new 52-week high. The 10-year Treasury hit its highest level since 2007.
No war headline. No Fed meeting.

So I skipped the predictions and asked where DFW business is still happening. #DFWRealEstate

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

You can't time the 10-year. Nobody can.

You can build a business that works at 6% or 7.5%. Know which buyers rates barely touch, and which ones just need a different loan.

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

Retired. House paid off. Money in the bank. Never missed a payment in
40 years.

Declined for not enough income.

Meanwhile a W-2 with $1,100 saved sails right through.

The calculation was built around a paycheck.

https://t.co/sCr69EfzyF

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

@amandaorson Gonna get bumpy before it gets better

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

@NewsLambert

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

A drone hit a Saudi pipeline nine days ago. Brent ran to $108.75.

It's back online. Brent's near $100, down 8% on the week.

Oil is an inflation story, and inflation sets bond yields. That's how a repair crew in the desert reaches your payment.

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

Bitcoin hit $85,825 this morning. Highest since January, up 5.7% on the day.

The headline everywhere is "8-month high." The mechanism is something else.

When you bet against bitcoin, you borrow it, sell it, and plan to buy it back cheaper. If the price goes up instead you're losing, and once the loss hits your margin limit the exchange closes the position for you. Closing it means buying bitcoin at market, right now, whether you want to or not.

$648 million of those positions got force-closed. $262 million of it in the single hour the price crossed $84,000. Every one of those was a buy order nobody chose to place.

Meanwhile the spot bitcoin ETFs — actual money walking in the door — took in $6.21 million for the entire week.

Six million of new money. Six hundred and forty-eight million of forced buying.

One more thing worth saying out loud. Six days ago I posted that bitcoin and gold had become the same trade, correlation above 50%. Today bitcoin is up 5.7% and gold is down 0.8%. That link already broke, which is what the analysts I quoted said would happen.

A price can move a long way without anyone deciding to buy anything. Worth knowing before you read a chart as a signal.

Not advice — just the interesting stuff.

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

Three days this week, three different answers.

Wednesday: rates better. Thursday: better again. Today: gave it all back. The 10-year is back over 5%.

I posted the good days, so here's this one.

Waiting for a better rate isn't patience. It's a guess.

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

The Fed raised rates yesterday.

Mortgage rates are better today than they were before the hike.

Two different rates. The Fed moves one. Your mortgage follows a different market entirely.

If a client thinks they missed their window this week, they didn't.

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

@pulte They aren't hidden costs - Homes are too expensive - that is all. Yes insurance is higher, and taxes are higher (because of prices) - Rates are at historical avg. MI is cheap these days - until prices come down the avg american will struggle to afford a home. Period!

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

Fed announces at 1:00 CT. Hike odds 92.9% on CME FedWatch.

The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates. They set the overnight rate. Mortgages are priced off bonds.

Live proof: hike odds near 93%, and mortgage bonds are up 26bp today.

Don't read the 1:01 headline and assume your quote moved.

[Mike Mills @mikemillstx]

5.0 star review received on the Experience platform for Mike Mills by Julie N S - The communication was amazing. The app was conveinent and informative about the process - whic...