bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨

[Goaty @goatyishere]

The Weather Bot That Turned $240 Into $83,000 Using Pure Math

No guessing. No intuition. Just pricing errors

Profile: https://t.co/kWI5WhZNJK

The system doesn't predict weather, it measures mispricing

One formula: EV = p - price

If EV > 0 → enter. If EV ≤ 0 → skip

Example: market at 0.15, model says 0.45. EV = 0.30. That's the edge

Probability is aggregated, not guessed: p = (p₁ + p₂ + ... + pₙ) / n

Sources: GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, NWS

28 of 31 runs aligned → p ≈ 0.90. Market at 0.60 that's mispricing

Only trade when the gap is wide enough: Δ = p - price > 0.05-0.08

Markets resolve on airport data, not city averages: T_real = T_model + ε where ε = 3-8°F

Position sizing via Kelly: f* = (b·p - (1 - p)) / b

The formula doesn't find the edge. It scales it

60+ cities. Hundreds of small trades. Strict sizing. A small edge, repeated every day

$240 → $83,000

Save this

[#FreeJimmyLai @SupportJimmyLai]

Jimmy Lai knows exactly why he's being persecuted.

The rest of the world knows why he's being persecuted.

Today, he explained it to a judge in his sham trial under the CCP-backed National Security Law.

Jimmy Lai has spent the last four years in solitary confinement as a political prisoner.

He's been on the stand for 40 days.

Enough is enough. It's time to #FreeJimmyLai.

https://t.co/vsuYEyecdn

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

@phtevenstrong @GearboxProtocol is reservior also in a same situation? their reserve page shows that 50% of the reserve is in the morpho vault and most of the vault exposure is their own token

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

Does anyone know @reservoir_xyz $reUSD $rUSD is in a same situation with stream finance?
By checking their reserve,
30% is in Morpho - Smokehouse USDC
20% is in Morpho - Steakhouse RUSD
those morpho vault exposure is rUSD and srUSD which are their own stablecoin

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

@gch_enbsbxbs 跑出区间怎么办

[Bill The Investor @billtheinvestor]

Polymarket这玩意儿，看起来像赌场，其实是零和游戏里的聪明钱印钞机。别他妈的像那帮傻逼一样瞎赌事件结果，得玩概率、情绪和套利。

2024-2025年，链上数据明摆着：总交易量超20亿刀，聪明钱赚翻了4.2M+。我扒了点可验证的模式，对比下谁最稳、谁最赚。不是投资建议，亏了别哭。

先说新闻��易 (News Trading)：盯着Bloomberg或X实时新闻，事件一爆就冲进去抢先手。市场反应慢，你吃波动。
•盈利潜力：单笔20-100%，如拜登退选那天，赔率从0.7飙到0.95，抢单卖出赚50%。
•风险：假新闻坑人，时间密集（每天盯盘）。
•可验证：2024选举窗，鲸鱼用这招赚上百万，Dune Analytics数据全链上。胜率70%+若你快。适合crypto native，别碰体育。

对比套利/价差耕作 (Arbitrage/Spread Farming)：YES+NO不等于1？直接两边下注锁利。或新市场spread宽，扔臭单（stink bids）等FOMO党填。
•盈利潜力：低风险1-5% per trade，复利每周10%。一鲸2025年用bot跑10k+笔，净赚72k。
•风险：流动性干，bot抢单。但Polymarket零手续费，稳如狗。
•可验证：aesparing2钱包，链上spread farm全记录。比新闻稳，但赚得慢。���人首选。

高赔率绑定 (90-99% Odds Bonding)：事件快结了，买99c的YES，结算变1刀，吃basis。别逆势，纯时间价值。
•盈利潜力：2-10% per bet，堆积成山。一交易者两年1M+，每周小胜复利。
•风险：纠纷翻车（UMA投票），但概率<5%。
•可验证：HolyMoses7从1刀变87k，链上全透明。像美联储决议市场，0.95入，结算吃0.05。傻瓜钱，但别全仓。

复制聪明钱 (Copytrading)：盯Nansen或Wallchain，抄鲸鱼地址。像Prexpect的Elon推文策略：每周市场开，扔限单在低端范围，80%+胜率赚50k。
•盈利潜力：跟对人，月化20-50%。Kapii地缘政治内幕，1M+。
•风险：鲸鱼洗盘，你成韭菜。需工具筛。
•可验证：just.some.guy长尾misprice，平均入0.85卖1。X上profile全公开，抄前看PNL曲线。

对冲/中性策略 (Hedging/Delta Neutral)：BTC现货多头？买Polymarket “BTC跌”对冲尾险。或范围市场如”SOL 206-208”，方向中性吃波动。
•盈利潜力：减损5-20%，年化稳15%。2025 crypto boom，hedge赚了上亿刀。
•风险：黑天鹅，但不赌方向。
•可验证：shampoo_capital链上书，BTC up/down对冲全记录。比纯赌安全，适合大户。

争议狙击 (Dispute Sniping)：市场争端时，懂规则/先例，预测UMA结果反手买。Betmoar工具筛。
•盈利潜力：翻盘时100%+，如99c bonded市场争后变0。
•风险：规则坑，需深研。
•可验证：2024选举争端，disputors赚翻。胜率高但机会少。专家级。

对比总结：
•最稳：套利/对冲，风险<5%，年化10-20%。像民主党养胖子，吃小利不饿肚子。
•最高赚：新闻/复制，爆单50%+，但时间/工具成本高。2025数据：新闻鲸平均ROI 40%。
•新手友好：高赔绑定+价差，零脑子每周5%。
总的，Polymarket不是赌，是概率战。别追100x，切亏+复利=不归零。

风险提醒：黑天鹅20%，纠纷5%。仓管止损，永不过夜大仓。像crypto，牛熊都有边，但事件永不缺。比特币党首选，避开meme市场。

Polymarket=未来赌场，玩情绪不玩运气。

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

Claimed my @StandX_official ID.

Most of you didn’t make it.

I’m not most of you.

Stand.

https://t.co/w8wNEghAIU

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

@ShanghaoJin 請問為何巨額空單會把mm的 spot買盤嚇走？

[ArBitCry @BitDanceUp]

套利是个技术活，之前比特币2万刀的时候就在看这些内容，现在比特币9万刀了，还是在看这些内容。
好好地发现套利机会，用技术稳稳地赚钱。
有细水长流地收益，才能淡定地看着市场火热引发的各路神仙群魔乱舞地表演十倍百倍神话。
靠自己的认知和技术赚的钱，不比从所谓家人们身上赚的钱更香吗

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

@delucinator

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

@AndreCronjeTech @AerodromeFi

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

@delucinator Foodpanda

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

Mt.Gox transferring out BTC wtf?

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

@delucinator you can’t

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

@kamikaz_ETH you have no conviction

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

#RollieFinance asdf

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

@LinChen91162689 @DeribitExchange 那就要先買現貨再合約做空
然後再用買回來的現貨做保證金賣put
然後如果put被行權時要立即平倉合約用利潤買入eth

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

wirex rugged?

[bankrupt | STONE🐦‍⬛🪨 @miketsui3b]

@delucinator where can you get this dashboard？