$BTC is Approaching My Spot Buys Zone
The plan has been clear from the very beginning. I did not change my bias, I did not buy into the FOMO, and I did not deviate from the plan.
Now it's time to start scaling in, loading heavy, and positioning for the next 2-4 years. The prices Bitcoin is trading at right now will likely never be seen again in the future, which makes anything in this region a solid opportunity for long-term investment.
Personally, I like being precise because lower entries = higher rewards. While I still believe a max pain scenario could take us into the 37k region, I will be starting to accumulate spot below 60k.
The reason is simple: below 60k, we're entering the bottoming zone.
Maybe the bottom forms at 58k.
Maybe it forms between 49k-42k.
Maybe we get the full flush into 37k.
But regardless of where the exact bottom ends up being, one thing I'm highly confident about is that anything below 60k is part of the accumulation range.
Whether it takes weeks or months, I expect this region to form a bottom and eventually reverse back to the upside.
Decided to take more profits from my Swing Short on $BTC after catching a 25k drop without taking any partials along the way.
The reason for taking profits here is simple: the trend is showing clear exhaustion, and we’re now retesting the previous All-Time High. There’s a high chance we hold this level, bounce, and eventually move into a consolidation phase around this area.
Instead of holding the full position, I’m prioritizing securing profits and waiting for pullbacks. From there, I’ll decide whether to add back to the Short depending on PA.
I have also placed Spot Buy Limit at 58.8k-54.5k region, with adds extending all the way down to 37.6k.
$BTC is Approaching My Spot Buys Zone
The plan has been clear from the very beginning. I did not change my bias, I did not buy into the FOMO, and I did not deviate from the plan.
Now it's time to start scaling in, loading heavy, and positioning for the next 2-4 years. The prices Bitcoin is trading at right now will likely never be seen again in the future, which makes anything in this region a solid opportunity for long-term investment.
Personally, I like being precise because lower entries = higher rewards. While I still believe a max pain scenario could take us into the 37k region, I will be starting to accumulate spot below 60k.
The reason is simple: below 60k, we're entering the bottoming zone.
Maybe the bottom forms at 58k.
Maybe it forms between 49k-42k.
Maybe we get the full flush into 37k.
But regardless of where the exact bottom ends up being, one thing I'm highly confident about is that anything below 60k is part of the accumulation range.
Whether it takes weeks or months, I expect this region to form a bottom and eventually reverse back to the upside.
$BTC Long was Stopped Out
We pretty much dumped through every major area of support we had, Which I wasn't expecting but I was prepared for it, Hence why I only secured 25% Profits from the BTC Swing Short. That position alone covered the SL's and is still printing decently.
Now I'm looking for a sweep of the current lows. We can get minor pullbacks from here as the trend is extremely exhausted, But I do not expect a significant recovery without first taking out the 58.8k lows.
$BTC
After securing 25% profits, I'm letting the remaining position run while holding a half-sized hedge long against it.
I still expect us to tap 58.8k at minimum during this bear market, where I plan to take heavier profits from the short.
As long as we continue holding the 65k region, a retest of the 71k–74k area is definitely on the table. If we do revisit that zone, I'll be taking profits on the long and adding back to the swing short.
$BTC Swing Short Update
The Second TP level has been tapped and I'm securing 25% profits here, which I plan to add back on a pullback.
TP 3 & TP 4 will be my heavier profit-taking zones, though it may take some time before we tap into those levels.
Sticked with my Plan, Now Patience Will Do the Heavy Lifting From Here
$BTC
We completed a Standard ABC Correction on this move up, But something interesting to note here is that Corrective Wave A and Corrective Wave C share very similar Price + Time characteristics.
From bottom to top, the move took 19 2D candles. If the same sequence repeats again, then we can expect a potential 14% drop sometime within this week.
$BTC Swing Short Update
The Second TP level has been tapped and I'm securing 25% profits here, which I plan to add back on a pullback.
TP 3 & TP 4 will be my heavier profit-taking zones, though it may take some time before we tap into those levels.
Sticked with my Plan, Now Patience Will Do the Heavy Lifting From Here
$BTC is Tapping Into the Key Monthly Support Zone
This is pretty much the last line of defense for bulls if they want to stay in the game. Lose this area and we will likely see a move into the sub 60k's.
$BTC | Monthly
This does not look good for the bulls...
The previous Monthly candle rejected from the Imbalance Zone created during the last move to the downside. After 5 consecutive bearish candles, a pullback to rebalance the PA was not out of the ordinary.
Now we can see that the previous Monthly candle closed as a bearish shooting star, followed by a dump at the start of the current month.
If we look purely at the Monthly Structure, the first decent support zone where we could potentially see a bounce sits around the Quarterly Open region between 68.2k and 66.9k.
That's the area we should be paying close attention to right now.
There are some LTF levels in between, such as the 70.4k Daily EQLs, but that area is not particularly strong and can easily be turned into liquidity, resulting in a move all the way down to the Quarterly Open.
Personally, I am expecting some relief from the 68k-66k region before any further continuation to the downside. My first target for a potential Macro Bottom in this bear cycle remains 58.8k.
If we lose the 58k region, things could get a lot more interesting, with the 49.5k-41.6k region coming into play, followed by a possible exit flush into the 37k-38k region, which has remained my Max Pain target ever since the 120k highs.
This is the plan we’ve been following for the last 6+ months without any deviations, and so far it has played out almost perfectly. It has remained extremely rewarding, helping us position in the right direction while others were in doubt and calling for higher prices.
$BTC | Monthly
This does not look good for the bulls...
The previous Monthly candle rejected from the Imbalance Zone created during the last move to the downside. After 5 consecutive bearish candles, a pullback to rebalance the PA was not out of the ordinary.
Now we can see that the previous Monthly candle closed as a bearish shooting star, followed by a dump at the start of the current month.
If we look purely at the Monthly Structure, the first decent support zone where we could potentially see a bounce sits around the Quarterly Open region between 68.2k and 66.9k.
That's the area we should be paying close attention to right now.
There are some LTF levels in between, such as the 70.4k Daily EQLs, but that area is not particularly strong and can easily be turned into liquidity, resulting in a move all the way down to the Quarterly Open.
Personally, I am expecting some relief from the 68k-66k region before any further continuation to the downside. My first target for a potential Macro Bottom in this bear cycle remains 58.8k.
If we lose the 58k region, things could get a lot more interesting, with the 49.5k-41.6k region coming into play, followed by a possible exit flush into the 37k-38k region, which has remained my Max Pain target ever since the 120k highs.
This is the plan we’ve been following for the last 6+ months without any deviations, and so far it has played out almost perfectly. It has remained extremely rewarding, helping us position in the right direction while others were in doubt and calling for higher prices.
$BTC Hedge Long was Stopped out with a -0.5% Loss.
Risk was lower on this one due to it being a low confluence trade.
Now that we have broken below the Weekly S/R level, I will be looking for a tap into the 70.4k-68.8k region. This is the stronger area of support where we are more likely to see a bounce coming from.
I will be looking for a re-entry long from that region while also securing some profits from the Swing Short we're holding, as mentioned in the previous update