MinorMiracle

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate yup was scratching my head as well, thought I missed something

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate What happened to the long end today?

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate I think we just need to be patient sometime.

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate Could be a classic sell-the-news event, but if oil keeps falling, could we see the 10-year move back toward 4% relatively quickly?

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate How should we think about the direction of the long end post-iran conflict for the next 6 months?

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

BREAKING: The United States government just took equity in nine quantum computing companies. Two billion dollars allocated under a law the President called a horrible horrible thing in March 2025. The companies are IBM, GlobalFoundries, D-Wave, Rigetti, Infleqtion, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, Quantinuum, and Diraq.

IBM receives one billion and will match it with its own capital to build a dedicated quantum chip foundry in upstate New York called Anderon. The stated strategic objective is parity with China in the technology projected to break the world’s current public-key cryptography within the next decade. The federal government has already begun migrating off the encryption these machines will break.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signed letters of intent today following extended company proposals. The grants convert to minority equity stakes, replicating the structure of the August 2025 Intel deal that took 9.9 percent of the chipmaker for $8.9 billion at $20.47 per share.

GlobalFoundries gets $375 million for a domestic quantum components factory with the government taking approximately one percent equity. D-Wave, Rigetti, and Infleqtion each receive approximately $100 million. Diraq receives $38 million. The exact equity percentages for eight of the nine firms remain undisclosed pending final agreements.

The portfolio is the second irony. The government is funding superconducting qubits at IBM and Rigetti, neutral atom modalities at Atom Computing and Infleqtion, photonic computing at PsiQuantum, trapped ion at Quantinuum, quantum annealing at D-Wave, and silicon spin qubits at Diraq. There is no commitment to a single architecture.

The state has placed venture-style bets across the entire modality landscape. PsiQuantum had previously raised one billion in private capital from investors reportedly including a fund linked to Donald Trump Jr. That fund is now in the same cap table as the federal government.

Quantum stocks reacted immediately. Infleqtion surged as much as thirty-four percent on volume five times normal. D-Wave and Rigetti rallied twenty-one to twenty-four percent on the day. The combined market capitalization of pure-play quantum companies added several billion dollars within hours. The market priced the government check before any milestones, disbursals, or engineering had been verified.

The same week, NVIDIA printed the largest beat-and-raise of the cycle and the stock barely moved. The same week, the Pentagon formally categorized artificial intelligence as combat power and excluded Anthropic from classified AI contracts for refusing autonomous lethal weapons restrictions.

The same week, Andrej Karpathy joined the excluded lab to build recursive self-improvement. The same week, the substrate of the AI buildout was being auctioned on a dark web forum after the GitHub supply-chain attack. The same week, the thirty-year Treasury cleared five percent for the first time since 2007. The state is now financing equity bets on the next computing paradigm at the highest real yields since before the financial crisis.

The line between private and public capital in frontier technology has been erased. The US government is the largest customer of NVIDIA through the Pentagon, the largest shareholder of Intel through the CHIPS Act, the largest disqualifier of Anthropic through the Department of War, and now the largest single-day investor in quantum computing through the Commerce Department.

The same administration that called industrial policy crony capitalism in March 2025 has just executed the largest single coordinated industrial-policy move in American history outside wartime mobilization.

The taxpayer is now a venture capitalist in nine quantum companies. The taxpayer did not vote on it.

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate @DSDataPrivate awesome, thanks for sharing Andy! Looking forward the video.

Curious, are there any preconditions you have in your mind on meeting or not meeting these targets? eg: Iran situation developing in a certain way. I'm still anchored to the scenrio analysis you outlined prior.

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate @DSDataPrivate No crystal ball but, any gut feelings on how far should we expect the long end to push up to?

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@Etiam_Aliquam @DsrPrivate Feel like escalating on both side is not something in the interest of gulf folks, China, and Trump. So there almost *must* be a non escalatory path forward?

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate Any specific trigger for the bond sell off?

[Startup Archive @StartupArchive_]

Patrick Collison on the importance of waiting a really long time to hire people

Everybody tells you “work really hard to hire the best people.” But as Patrick explains, that’s not helpful because everyone knows they should do that. As he puts it:

“The question is to what length should you go and what does that actually mean in practice? And in practice, it means being okay waiting a really long time to hire people.”

It took Stripe six months to hire their first two people, and six more months to hire another 3-4 people. He can think of five people at Stripe who took 3+ years to hire.

“If you think about the smartest people you know, if you want to get them to work on your thing, chances are they already have pretty good paths ahead of them… You have to be way more persistent and be okay with it taking way longer than any sane or reasonable person would think it should take.”

There’s an important compounding effect here — hiring just one great person will make it marginally easier to get the next great person. Patrick argues you should also view every person you hire as bringing along another 50 people just like them if your company is successful:

“Even if they don’t literally hire 50 people, they will be so influential in determining the selection of those 50 people.”

Source: @GreylockVC (Nov 2015)

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

lol nice

[Deedy @deedydas]

Billionaire Michael Milken joked “if a US company replaces the US-born CEO with a CEO born in India, I buy the stock”

But he reveals he hasn’t backtested the idea.
So we did.

In the last 15yrs, that would’ve 50x’d your money: 7.5x more $$ and >2x IRR vs S&P500: 30% vs 14%!

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

When your working life rewards you, it’s easy to ratchet up the complexity: homes, cars, travel, possessions etc.

I have found that all that complexity comes at the sake of your most fleeting asset: your time. Instead of building things, all of a sudden you’re dealing with minutiae and logistics. Instead of talking mostly to engineers, you’re talking mostly to non-engineers. The building stops…the business of managing self inflicted complexity begins.

It’s worth noting that the best players in the game (Buffett, Elon) have kept their life extremely basic, almost monastic/nomadic, as success ratcheted them ever higher.

I think it’s the biggest secret hiding in plain sight:

When the world upgrades your status, downgrade your complexity.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Chamath on why organizational charts tend to reward the wrong types of employees

Rings very true from my experience as well. The more layers you have in a company, the more it accelerates the careers of individuals who are good at playing the corporate game

Over time you create a loop where actual technical talent leaves due to lack of career mobility, until you are left with people who sound smart but can accomplish nothing

[Bill Gurley @bgurley]

https://t.co/X3MLBWJNMo

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate How bad if we are talking if he hits the power plants and bridge and Iran hits the the plants and desalination? Sounds like we could go through 6300?

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate Thoughts on how market prices in the Pakistan mediation that happened today?

[What happened today? @MFactsplosion]

Most of the U.S. energy output comes from the private sector. So despite all the talk of energy independence, oil and gas producers will sell their product on the international market—not the domestic one. If global demand is high, they will sell to the highest bidder. That is exactly why gas prices are rising in the U.S. too. The majority of our gas comes from private companies. Why would an oil company sell to you at a discount when they can sell an entire tanker at double the price to Japan? Understood?

So the longer this war goes on, the higher gas prices will climb at home. And you already know what happens the moment they touch $5 a gallon.

[Karoline Leavitt @PressSec]

Since Day One of Operation Epic Fury, President Trump clearly outlined the U.S. Military’s objectives to end the threat of the Iranian terrorist regime.

The President and the Pentagon predicted it would take approximately 4-6 weeks to achieve this mission.

Tomorrow marks week 3 - and the U.S. Armed Forces are doing an exceptional job. Day by day, the Iranian Regime is being crippled, and their ability to threaten the United States and our allies is being significantly weakened.

As always, President Trump is laser focused on one thing: total and complete VICTORY.

[MinorMiracle @MinorMiracle]

@DsrPrivate Why has the market moved so much off of this?