minvest

Moneyline Analyst and cash salad chef. More coming soon at

[minvest @minvest__]

World Cup is a wrap!

We'll be posting a summary of our models performance (overall +4.3% ROI) and some of the next steps soon

Great to go out with a win (picking Spain to lift the trophy) 🏆🇪🇸

[minvest @minvest__]

Scoreboard for 2026-07-19

Minvest: 1/1 🟢 | return: 1.65u | ROI: +64.5%
Gemini: 1/1 🟢 | return: 1.59u | ROI: +58.8%
Claude: 0/1 🔴 | return: 0.00u | ROI: -100.0%
ChatGPT: 0/1 🔴 | return: 0.00u | ROI: -100.0%

[minvest @minvest__]

World Cup Final is today! Our model's data-driven pick is below.

Spains defense has been amazing through the tournament, will they hold Argentina and Messi down?

Spain/Argentina — Spain to lift the 🏆 🇪🇸

#fifaworldcup

[minvest @minvest__]

AI picks 1X2 C/A/G
Spain/Argentina: +A/+A/U2.5

[minvest @minvest__]

Scoreline heat map for France/England today, model sees a ~67% probability of less than 3.5 goals with 1-1 being the most probable score (data-wise)

#fifaworldcup

[minvest @minvest__]

AI picks 1X2 C/A/G
France/England: +H/U2.5/D

[minvest @minvest__]

Battle for third in the World Cup today, the models pick is below (which, by the math, has positive EV)

Catch here is that neither team really wants to be playing, which is something the model can't factor for.

France/England - Under 3.5

#fifaworldcup

[minvest @minvest__]

In both semifinal games, we had teams (France/England) that really underperformed their xG expectations. Argentina and Spain basically performed as expected, see the table below.

France xG went from 2.22 -> 0.48
England xG went from 2.04 -> 0.46

Huge drops

[minvest @minvest__]

Scoreboard for 2026-07-15

Minvest: 0/1 🔴 | return: 0.00u | ROI: -100.0%
Gemini: 1/1 🟢 | return: 2.08u | ROI: +108.0%
Claude: 0/1 🔴 | return: 0.00u | ROI: -100.0%
ChatGPT: 1/1 🟢 | return: 2.08u | ROI: +108.0%

[minvest @minvest__]

Our England/Argentina pick is below. England is one of the best modeled teams we have, with Argentina also being well evaluated.

Note that we see positive EV on the over (2)

England/Argentina - England to advance 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

#fifaworldcup

[minvest @minvest__]

AI picks 1X2 C/A/G
England/Argentina: +A/U2.5/+A

[minvest @minvest__]

Minvest model heat map for today's England/Argentina match. Model sees another 1-1 score as the most probable with value on over 2.

These are two of the best calibrated teams in our model during the World Cup

[minvest @minvest__]

Scoreboard for 2026-07-14

Minvest: 0/1 🔴 | return: 0.00u | ROI: -100.0%
Gemini: 1/1 🟢 | return: 1.95u | ROI: +95.2%
Claude: 1/1 🟢 | return: 2.28u | ROI: +128.0%
ChatGPT: 1/1 🟢 | return: 2.28u | ROI: +128.0%

[minvest @minvest__]

World Cup semifinals start today! Great matchup between France and Spain see our model's pick below. We think the books have the odds pretty well squared on this one.

France/Spain - France (to advance) 🇫🇷

#fifaworldcup

[minvest @minvest__]

AI picks 1X2 C/A/G
France/Spain: +A/+A/U2.5

[minvest @minvest__]

@DaveMasonBOL If you need a big fella to take the draw to even things out, we're taking donations.

[minvest @minvest__]

@FIFAWorldCup This is the headline, but the Spain offense v. France defense might be what decides the match. Per our model, France's defense has been great (3.54 xGA and 2 actual allows) while Spains attack may not be up to the task (10.35 xG v. 11 actual)

[minvest @minvest__]

@OptaAnalyst Curious how your model sees Spains defense. Their performance on the pitch has been great, but outperformed at least our model by over ~4.5 goals (our model had them at 4.67 goals allowed)

[minvest @minvest__]

@Covers @KalshiSports Our data model (which has a positive ROI picking games throughout the World Cup) is picking France to advance.

[minvest @minvest__]

@ActionNetworkHQ Hard to argue, both teams are elite but France has the data backing them and Mbappe is a beast

[minvest @minvest__]

@ManagerTactical Nobody move

[minvest @minvest__]

Heat map for todays France/Spain matchup. Given how even the teams are from a data perspective, not surprising that 1-1 is the most likely score at the end of regulation (and a slight nudge on the over at 51% probability v. the ~53% implied odds from the books)

#fifaworldcup