Mirage

Expert in everything, master of absolutely nothing. AI, markets, humour, life hacks and occasional chaos. Personal views only. Reposts ≠ endorsements.

[Mirage @miragecipher]

@REDBOXINDIA This affects employment based green card sponsorship, NOT H-1B visas.

The restrictions apply to companies sponsoring permanent residency, while the real impact falls on employees waiting for green cards.

[Mirage @miragecipher]

🚨 BIG NEWS: US suspends green card sponsorship programs for major IT companies, including TCS, Infosys, Cognizant and Wipro.

Companies face sponsorship restrictions, while affected employees face delays in obtaining permanent residency.

NOTE: This is NOT a blanket H-1B ban.

A major setback for Indian IT professionals pursuing the American dream.

How will these companies adapt?

#IndianIT #H1B #TCS #Infosys #Cognizant #GreenCard

[Mirage @miragecipher]

In the last 20 years, NIFTY has tested or slipped below the 200 EMA on the weekly chart only during major stress periods.

We saw deeper breaks around the 2008–09 crisis and 2020 COVID crash, while in periods like 2011–12 and 2016, NIFTY found support around this zone and bounced.

Now NIFTY is only around 200–300 points away from the weekly 200 EMA.

And this is not just about one moving average.

There is a major support cluster between roughly 21,800 and 22,600 based on previous weekly swing lows and reaction zones:

• ~22,580
• Weekly 200 EMA around ~22,380
• ~22,190
• ~21,815
So price is now entering a zone where multiple long term supports are stacked very close together.

What puzzles me this time is the market structure.

Usually, smallcaps and midcaps start weakening first and large caps follow. But this time, many quality small and midcaps are still near ATHs and their indices are also relatively strong.

A large part of this correction appears to be coming from large caps.

For me, this is one of the best areas to start gradually building positions in fundamentally strong small and midcap companies for the next 4–5 years.

The fall is intense, so these levels can still break. But if this entire support cluster fails decisively, I would start asking whether something much bigger is developing globally.

US and Indian 10Y bond yields are already worth watching closely.

For traders, this is still a weak structure.

For long-term investors, this is becoming a very interesting accumulation zone.

#NIFTY #Investing #SmallCap #MidCap #StockMarketIndia

[Mirage @miragecipher]

NIFTY has now breached the day’s low.

Hope my alert near the top helped some of you avoid getting trapped on the long side or manage your positions better.

NIFTY 22800 PE: ₹120 → ₹215

Personally, I exited around ₹158 near the VWAP level. Didn’t catch the full move, but that’s fine.

This is exactly why I stayed cautious even while price was moving up.

#NIFTY #Trading

[Mirage @miragecipher]

I agree, the market is up today. But the data underneath is still negative and getting more negative even as price keeps climbing.

So if you’re long, stay alert.

From here, I see two possibilities: either we get another sharp blast higher from short covering, or they dump the move from these elevated levels.

I know price is moving up, but based on the data I’m seeing, I’m more inclined toward the short side. I may try a small short trade with tight risk.

My bias is not fixed. It will change immediately if the data changes.

#NIFTY #Trading

[Mirage @miragecipher]

Hope my alert helped some of you.

I’ve exited my position now. Not because the data suddenly turned positive, but simply because I got what I needed from the market today.

No need to overtrade once your job for the day is done.

#NIFTY #Trading

[Mirage @miragecipher]

Yesterday, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar warned of a potential major food crisis in the coming months.

The combination is worrying:

• Grain supply disruptions from ongoing wars
• Fertilizer shortages
• Rising energy costs
• Super El Nino threatening agricultural output
• Increasing financial pressure on developing economies

For India, this is something worth watching closely. Even if domestic food availability remains comfortable, global shortages in food, fertilizer and energy can still create inflationary pressure across the economy.

Food inflation could become one of the major macro risks to watch in the coming months.

#India #Inflation #FoodInflation #Economy

[Mirage @miragecipher]

I’d suggest not taking any more trades today. The market has already blasted to the upside and reached the day’s high.

Many times, when the overall structure is weak, the market can hit the day’s high and then give back the move. NIFTY’s structure still looks weak to me.

I’m not saying it can’t go higher, but since it’s expiry day, better to stay light and avoid chasing.

Take the rest of the day off from trading, man.

[Mirage @miragecipher]

Looks like a massive whale BUY order just hit NIFTY. 👀

That kind of size usually deserves attention, especially if you're on the short side.

Something big may be brewing here. #NIFTY #StockMarketIndia #Trading

[Mirage @miragecipher]

What I’m wondering is how the drawdown reached almost ₹70K in the first place.

You mentioned you entered the 23550 CE today. But NIFTY was continuously falling in the morning, so what was the setup that made you take a CE entry at that point?

One missed trade can hurt, but chasing it usually hurts more.
Slowly and steadily is the right mindset. You’ll get plenty of opportunities again.

[Mirage @miragecipher]

What a wonderful day! 🔥

Both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY blasted to the upside, and my alert came at exactly the right time.

Hope it helped some of you stay on the right side of the move.

Again, stay light today. It’s monthly expiry, and we can easily see candles swinging hundreds of points up and down with very little reason.

Please keep the position size small and manage the risk.

#NIFTY #BANKNIFTY #Trading

[Mirage @miragecipher]

Losses are part of options trading. No strategy can keep us profitable all the time. What really keeps us positive over the long run is risk management.

A bad week doesn’t make anyone a bad trader. But if the last 20 days have been consistently difficult, I’d seriously suggest taking a few days off, clearing your head, and coming back fresh.

[Mirage @miragecipher]

7/ Hero Motors may eventually justify a premium valuation if:

✅ EV revenue continues scaling rapidly
✅ Capacity utilisation improves
✅ Margins expand significantly
✅ ROE moves materially higher
✅ Customer concentration declines
But at ₹98+, there is much less margin for execution disappointment.

Hero Motors should be valued on its own earnings, cash flows, returns, customer concentration and future growth execution.

At the current valuation, expectations are already very high.

Good company ≠ good stock at every price.

#HeroMotors #IPO #StockMarketIndia #Investing #EV #Nifty #Stocks

[Mirage @miragecipher]

HERO MOTORS VALUATION: BEWARE!

Hero Motors hit around ₹98.5 on listing day after the stock surged to the upper circuit.

But before chasing the “Hero + EV” narrative, investors should understand what they are actually paying for.

#HeroMotors #IPO #StockMarketIndia #Investing #EV #Nifty #Stocks

[Mirage @miragecipher]

6/ Another risk that shouldn't be ignored:

Hero Motors remains highly dependent on a relatively small number of customers.

FY26 revenue concentration:

• Largest customer: 35.6%
• Top 5 customers: 61.4%
• Top 10 customers: 72.9%
Losing or seeing lower volumes from one major programme can materially affect revenue and capacity utilisation.

Some newer/international facilities are operating far below full utilisation.

If volumes ramp up strongly, operating leverage can improve margins.

But that's exactly the point:

At ~100x+ earnings, the market is already paying today for a lot of that future improvement.