If this is right purr’s a ~20x, long tails are maybe 50-100x. And this all likely starts and ends in the early innings of next cycle since its downstream of HYPE so a rotation into BTC should be a liquid, hands-off 2x minimum on top of your basket ~30x.
I think very good odds that at some point in the next 6 months you get a (brief) PVE environment on HL spot coins.
None have ever really gone on a run because R/R to hold them vs <$10 HYPE didn’t make sense post-TGE, HYPE at $100 and it’s a different story
The new shitcoin “meta” is gone never to return because new coins are so extractive but the shitcoin concept is evergreen.
They just have to trade sideways at 0 for a year first to have the fairness element that made them work in the first place.
@tulipking Think they’re both in relatively early stages of adoption/ awareness despite ZEC being around a long time and hype being new. So maybe ZEC = 2017 BTC, HYPE ~2020 ETH
[LONG FORM] I really think people are underestimating how much of a role Bitcoin/crypto is playing in this China v US relationship.
Rather than try to align with the USA's crypto push, China chose the reverse path - obvious now given the strained relationship, but it actually started in the days just before Trump’s inauguration.
1) "China" in the weeks leading up to Trump getting into office, sold $20B of BTC from the PlusToken scam.
Weirdly, the CCP said it was ‘transferred to the national treasury’ without clarifying if it was sold. These BTC were seized almost 6 years prior - bizarre enough timing for the "sale".
2) Everyone is talking about Gold. PBOC resumed buying gold in November 2024 and has bought Gold for 11 consecutive months, one of their largest runs, ever. A mix of trying to de-dollarize but also to take the physical gold over the "digital gold" narrative which the Trump Admin are pushing
Listen to this talk from the Digital Asset Summit that just ended, from @fejau_inc
A little more crypto...:
3) When the NYT are putting out multi-week investigations into how the US are using crypto (+ World Liberty) and an negotiating tool for deals in the UAE on top of Forbes citing multiple articles of how almost 60% of Trumps wealth is in crypto: of course Xi will go after that.
We all know Trump and his clan are doing crazy things on the blockchain (Crime wise), but Im very much of the opinion the expose of the Trumps soon/at end of term will be detrimental to the space.
4.1) This actually didnt get much public notice but there was a desk in China that sold $1b - $1.5b quite frantically in the week starting 29th September.
4.2) There has been *numerous* Chinese related wallets, that have sold a massive chunk of BTC the last few weeks, some from a Chinese mining farm from 2012-2014. There is still a wallet, which @mlmabc was very vocal on, that still holds 43k BTC.
4.3) The "insider" wallet, that was outed by @eyeonchains as Garrett Jin, Garrett is Chinese and also traded at China Construction Bank and also set up Da Yo Trading...
4.4) Remember in early August that Chinese brokers were asked to stop endorsement of *ALL* stablecoins? China clearly feel threatened, heavily.
This is *extremely* surface level and im also aware how "obvious" most of this is, and most of you know this already, but the point of this was:
- to just make things a little clearer
- provide a little clarity on how much a role crypto and BTC playing in this "trade war" and strained relationship
Im aware it sounds quite conspiracy like but it definitely a little bit of merit - especially with every single point above can be backed by credibile on chain data + reputable publication reports.
Again, im just someone who an idiot who trades markets, mainly crypto and I like to put thoughts into words sometimes.
As teenagers we were beat over the head with this idea that low class white guys just couldn’t possibly control themselves if a woman were jogging in shorts and a tank top.
Then we got cameras.