Mason

Quantum $INFQ + Heavy Rare Earth $CRML . Tracking risks and high conviction, not vibes and hype. High risk tolerance. news + politics (you been warned)

[Mason @miscomputate]

$CRML

This CNBC interview with Tony Sage hits very differently now (video in post below).

I somehow saw this a few months ago, meant to come back to it, and then completely forgot about it. Really glad @zhc002 shared it with me tonight because it hits on so many levels right now.

If you’re a $CRML investor and you haven’t watched this yet, I’d watch it. Or watch it again.

And if you’re more technical, feel free to read the thread below. It gives a much better feel for where we are in the Tanbreez timeline, why the upcoming bulk sample / pilot plant feedstock updates matter, and why Greenland is becoming such a central piece of the critical minerals story.

And now today, Reuters reports Rubio says U.S.-Greenland-Denmark talks are continuing monthly and are “in a good place.” He also tied Greenland directly to collective defense and missile defense.

When asked if Greenland is part of Denmark, Rubio reportedly answered: “for now.”

That line matters.

To be clear, this is not about disrespecting Greenlanders or cheering on anyone “conquering” their land. Greenland’s self-determination matters. The point is that Greenland’s strategic importance is now being negotiated in real time by the U.S., Denmark, Greenland, and the broader Western alliance system.

Tony’s point in the CNBC interview was basically: Greenland wants independence, but it is also open to serious Western investment.

That may be the real tension here.

I don’t think this is just about “buying Greenland” in the cartoonish sense.

It feels more like the U.S. wants durable control, protection, and access around strategic assets:

Arctic routes.
Defense positioning.
Missile defense.
Heavy rare earth supply chains.
Non-China mineral security.

That puts Tanbreez in a very interesting geopolitical position.

Tony can say “50% to Europe, 50% to the U.S.” and that makes sense commercially. But from a U.S. national security perspective, I’m not sure downstream access alone is the whole goal anymore.

The U.S. wants de risked supply away from China, protected logistics, allied control, and enough influence around the asset to make sure it actually serves Western defense needs.

That’s why the next year around Greenland is going to be very interesting.

I’ve said this recently, but Tanbreez isn’t really just a mine story.

It sits right in the middle of Arctic strategy, rare earth chokepoints, U.S./EU supply chain politics, and Greenland’s own independence question.

Reuters:
https://t.co/aaIaZgHr3p

[Mark @zhc002]

@miscomputate @budf0x2 @lwix197550 https://t.co/w7giW5THM8

(about 6 min 50 sec) the DPA Act reference (from Tony).

I wouldn't say "blocked" it, more so insufficient new data; for continuity.
The PFS must have been the core materials and even @alainknokke has endless hammering the old documents.

DFS is needed.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. $BTC Bitcoin’s selloff is worsening, with the price falling below $63,000 for the first time since February 24. The move has triggered a wave of forced selling across crypto markets, with more than $1.1 billion in leveraged crypto positions liquidated over the past 24 hours.

2. $AVGO reported strong Q2’26 results, with revenue of $22.19B, slightly above estimates, up 48% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $2.44, beating expectations and rising 54% YoY. Semiconductor Solutions revenue came in at $15.0B, up 79% YoY, while AI semiconductor revenue surged 143% YoY to $10.8B, though it came in below buyside expectations. For Q3, Broadcom guided revenue to roughly $29.4B, ahead of consensus but slightly below buyside expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue expected to reach about $16B. The company also delivered $10.26B in free cash flow, equal to 46% of revenue, and said growth is being driven by accelerating AI demand, custom AI accelerators, AI networking, and strong operating leverage.

3. $META is reportedly considering charging up to $199.99/month for Hatch, its planned consumer AI agent, according to The Information. Hatch is described as a consumer version of OpenClaw that lets users create software tools and automate tasks with plain-language prompts, including scheduling events, sending emails, building simple apps, and generating travel itineraries. Meta is also considering a premium Hatch Plus tier that would offer 5–10x more daily usage capacity than the free version. During development, Hatch has used Anthropic’s Claude models, but it is expected to run on Meta’s Muse Spark model at launch.

4. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.4M contracts, $TSLA with 3.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.3M contracts, $AMZN with 1.1M contracts, $MSFT with 958K contracts, $META with 916K contracts, $NOK with 749K contracts, $INTC with 730K contracts, $GOOGL with 708K contracts, and $PLTR with 622K contracts. Nvidia and Tesla once again dominated options activity, each trading more than 3.4M contracts, while Apple and Amazon also saw elevated volume above 1M contracts.

5. $IREN signed a transmission connection agreement for an 800MW data center campus in Bundey, South Australia. The site includes four 330kV feeder exits, allowing it to support up to 800MW without requiring network upgrades, with energization expected to begin in 2028. The project marks IREN’s first announced Australian data center campus and would provide submarine fiber connectivity to key APAC markets, including Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea, and Japan.

6. $AAPL Apple's smart glasses roadmap has reportedly changed, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Apple’s display-equipped AR/XR glasses, which are expected to use optical waveguide technology, have reportedly been pushed back to 2029. Meanwhile, Apple’s display-less AI glasses, similar to Ray-Ban Meta, are still expected to ship in 2027. Kuo also says Apple is shifting resources away from the Vision Pro line and toward smart glasses that may have broader mass-market appeal.

7. $GOOGL plans to use roughly $30B of its $80B equity raise to cover tax obligations tied to employee equity awards, according to The Information. That would represent nearly 40% of the total raise, roughly double last year’s amount, and about 14% of expected operating cash flow.

8. $CRWD reported solid Q1’27 results, with revenue of $1.39B, up 26% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $1.10, both slightly ahead of expectations. ARR reached $5.51B, up 24% YoY, while net new ARR grew 32% YoY to $255.8M. CrowdStrike also announced a 4-for-1 stock split, with the record date set for June 25, 2026 and split-adjusted trading expected to begin on July 2, 2026. For the full year, the company guided revenue to $5.915B–$5.959B, ARR to roughly $6.53B–$6.56B, and adjusted EPS to $4.88–$4.96, while raising its net new ARR growth outlook to 27.7% at the midpoint. Management said CrowdStrike is becoming critical AI security infrastructure, highlighting record Q1 net new ARR, strong module adoption, and its AI-driven security products as signs of an AI inflection point.

9. SpaceX $SPCX is reportedly planning to price its IPO at $135 per share, with plans to sell 555.6 million shares and raise roughly $75 billion. At that price, the company would be valued at nearly $1.75 trillion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history.

10. US data center construction spending surged 28% YoY in April to a record annualized rate of $50.7B, surpassing public transportation construction spending of $49.9B for the first time in history. Since 2022, data center construction spending has exploded 357%, compared with just 16% growth in government transportation spending. As a result, data centers now represent 2.3% of all US construction spending, highlighting how AI infrastructure demand is reshaping the construction economy.

11. Ray Dalio says AI has the ingredients of a classic technology bubble, arguing that major technological shifts often create bubbles because it is impossible for investors and companies to perfectly predict the winners. He said companies face a difficult choice: spend aggressively to capture market share, or risk underspending and falling behind. Dalio added that bubbles eventually “prick” when investors or companies need to sell wealth/assets to raise cash, turning enthusiasm into forced selling pressure.

12. The S&P 500 closed the day red for the first time in 9 trading days. The last time the S&P $SPY closed green for 10 days in a row was 1995.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

[Mason @miscomputate]

@KantiqueTech Thx 🫡✌️

[Mason @miscomputate]

@KantiqueTech That chart is so wildly incorrect - you should correct it in the comments

[Mason @miscomputate]

$QNT this is 🔥

[The Quantum Bull @QuantumBullHQ]

Quantinuum just dropped this video, right before their IPO.
It has only 600 views.
The company is a monster. I like everything I see. Amazing presentation, compelling technology (all-to-all qubit connectivity).

The quantum market is growing stronger by the day.

$INFQ $IBM $QBTS $IONQ $QNT

https://t.co/Qq9r3s5gBG

[Mason @miscomputate]

@optionscjp Only panicons when…

[Mason @miscomputate]

@optionscjp Only panicons when…

[Mason @miscomputate]

@16kthir0GRXgNqn Thanks for sharing ✌️

$INFQ 🚀

[Mason @miscomputate]

@zhc002 @budf0x2 @lwix197550 @alainknokke But I’m also not convinced this stock will become a classic 20s pump and fade. My 2028 horizon is definitely $50+

[Mason @miscomputate]

@zhc002 @budf0x2 @lwix197550 @alainknokke unfortunately im all too familiar with SPAC mechanics 🤣🤣. And yes, I absolutely agree on all of this. $10 was the previous floor - you can kind of see the holding pattern coming back around that floor again now. $20 price ranges are indeed desirable

[Mason @miscomputate]

@zhc002 @budf0x2 @lwix197550 @alainknokke Got it. That was nice clarity. This makes me want to get an updated ownership chain so I can see everything.

[Mason @miscomputate]

$INFQ is trading around $17.41 today.

$QNT priced its IPO at $60/share ahead of its Nasdaq debut.

INFQ has higher Q1 revenue than QNT, yet QNT is coming public at a much larger valuation.

The quantum sector re-rating is happening in real time.

Comps can absolutely be discussed - the 10 day FINRA quiet period mainly restricts underwriter research, not our retail/investor analysis.

If you missed my post last week, here’s another chance to understand the valuation gap. Cool charts below contributed by @Jupiterian_Tech - follow him for more on INFQ 🤘

Correction on chart: INFQ reported $9.5M in Q1 revenue — about 1.8x QNT, 2.2x RGTI, and 3.3x QBTS.

[Mason @miscomputate]

Totally. I think this is the right framework. The old PFS isn’t really the market’s anchor anymore. Too much has changed: drilling, pricing, costs, processing assumptions, offtake structure etc… now the newer tech process improvements.

The real sequence now seems to be (bookmarking this convo so I can come back to it 🤣):

pilot plant → bulk samples → offtake/customer validation → updated CAPEX/OPEX → BFS/DFS → financing clarity

2026 matters a lot! 👀

[Mason @miscomputate]

Got it, that makes more sense. So it sounds like you’re saying larger institutional capital may want USGS level technical confirmation before stepping in size. That actually lines up with the proofing sequence: modern core scans, updated resource work, 2026 drilling, bulk sample, DFS/BFS, then larger financing/government conversations.

That also explains why the 2026 field season matters so much. Btw, when did Cantor actually exit or report no CRML position? I can verify they received/registered 1.2M shares from the Sizzle transaction, but I’m not clear on when they stopped showing as a holder

[Mason @miscomputate]

Thanks for sending. This was a great video. I had seen it circulating a few months back but forgot to come back to it. I read the relevant part a little differently. so Tony said USGS had been on site multiple times and that CRML had been consulting with them. Assumption could be yes, insufficient progress at that point, but there seems to be real engagement. He also said EXIM had been engaged and issued the $120M LOI.

On DPA, he said they applied under the old structure, then the process changed under the new administration and they reapplied under the new lane.

[Mason @miscomputate]

Interesting. Where did you hear the USGS/gatekeeper part?

I agree updated technical validation/BFS likely matters for financing, but USGS blocked it and DPA being stuck sound pretty specific. Would be helpful to know if that came from Tony, filings, or just your read on the process.