finweeb

hustle hustle hustle hustle hustle hustle

[Cheese For Everyone! @CheeseForEvery1]

Anthropic:

[ConvexityMaven @ConvexityMaven]

New Commentary....

Today I propose that the reason UST rates are touching twenty-year highs is NOT because of Inflation, but rather the market does not trust the US Government to manage its Fiscal matrix (Revenues vs Expenses).

In what can only be called gross Fiscal mismanagement, since 2001, under equally divided Governments, we have reversed a budget surplus to a relentless 6% deficit while debt has accumulated from $5.8Tn to over $40Tn.

My prescription - While perhaps not quite a redux of Jack Nicholson standing on the wall in “A Few Good Men”, Fed Chair Warsh needs to shock the market and make investors believe he will do “whatever it takes” to maintain US Dollar’s reserve currency status.

https://t.co/cBiTJOYrh5

@profplum99 @biancoresearch @dampedspring @LukeGromen @DariusDale42 @ErikSTownsend @EconguyRosie @tracyalloway

[Chop @chop324]

Ey whoever hacked me, in case you're seeing this, you fucked up

I live on chain

Tracked all your tx and you think custom contracts can hide you? Wrong.

You eventually transferred stolen funds to @kucoincom

KYC only you retard

Pls can support from @kucoincom team reach out, got criminals laundering using your exchange

Would appreciate frens sharing the post for visibility

[Simon Ree @simon_ree]

When an official actor reveals where their pain threshold is, and then sizes the defence too small to be decisive, the market's rational move is to lean on it until they escalate or fold.

Take sterling in the ERM, 1992. The Swiss National Bank's euro peg, January 2015. The BoJ's YCC, 2022 into 2023.

Two of those folded. The BoJ instead escalated, repeatedly. Ended up owning half the JGB market. And the pressure never disappeared, it just used the yen as the release valve. The defence held, but the currency paid.

Now price what Treasury announced. $4B minimum per operation, fixed calendar, capped size. Call it $15 to $30 billion across the whole window, against a market that absorbed $742B of Treasury sales in a single week this month, and a TBAC warning about a $1.45 trillion funding gap over FY27-28.

Precious metals are already looking past the flow and pricing the escalation path. Programs like this have a habit of growing.

[ron insana @rinsana]

Yield Curve Control is in effect from September 9th through November 4th, as the Treasury is now buying long-dated treasuries pushing down rates this morning. Election day, by the way, is November 3rd.

[mike smith @OakcanofwoopAs]

Ferris Bueller’s Day off meets let the bodies hit the floor. These two shouldn’t work that’s good together.

[smolting (@wassie) @inversebrah]

intergenerational algo snippet 🤌

[ConvexityMaven @ConvexityMaven]

Why the FED "should" hike by 50bps tomorrow....

https://t.co/UI7iOCTsRa

...and yes, likely will not.

[OddStats @OddStats]

You're going to see a lot of stats today like
"When CPI falls below 4%..."
"Last time CPI estimates were this far off..."

But what you should really know is, oil is already back in the 80s after being in the 60s/low 70s for a good chunk of this month's CPI data and that, if it stays up here, CPI is likely to jump right back up soon.

Why am I telling you this?

Because the last time CPI dropped
▪ From 4.2%
▪ To under 4%
▪ But then jumped BACK to 4.2%
▪ Round trip in 6 months or less

Why, that would be 2008.

[Jesse Livermore @Jesse_Livermore]

Think about how easy it would have been for a president to not screw this term up. Take office in '25, extend the tax cuts, then get out of the way. Done.

Instead, we have a president who, at every turn, has dramatically exacerbated every problem he was elected to solve. Higher inflation (tariffs, fiscal recklessness, Iran debacle), higher rates (interference w/ the Fed), endless wars, plus some of the most disgusting corruption the office has ever seen (swamp?)

Judged against a passive benchmark, this is without question the worst performance of any president in U.S. history.

[Dissident Media @DissidentMedia]

Scott Horton puts Iran school bombing into perspective on Joe Rogan:

[Silly Little Guy @Czar_Of_Silly]

RAHHHHH WE WILL TEACH YOU WHO INVENTED SOCCER USA USA USA 🇺🇸🇺🇸

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

This AI just exposed the BIGGEST legal insider trading operation in America.

A platform called GovGreed built a seven-layer machine learning system that cross-references every stock trade disclosed by every sitting politician against the bills their committees control, the campaign donations they receive, and the companies their votes directly impact.

It scored all 540 politicians currently in Congress. And the numbers are crazy:

56% of every stock purchase made by Congress in the last 16 months was on a stock directly affected by a bill the buyer later voted on. That is 6,170 out of 11,016 total purchases.

More than HALF of all congressional stock buys are on companies whose fate that same politician is about to decide.

343 of 540 Congress members actively trade stocks while holding access to nonpublic legislative information.

That is 63.8% of the entire legislature making market bets with an informational edge that would put any hedge fund manager in prison.

The AI identified 752 active "Triple Signals" in the current Congress. A Triple Signal fires when three conditions line up at once:

The politician sits on the committee controlling a bill, they traded stock in a company affected by that bill, AND they received campaign contributions from that same industry.

Bills carrying these insider indicators pass at 5.4 TIMES the normal rate.

Now look at the individual leaderboard:

- Nancy Pelosi's estimated portfolio sits at $194 million with a Greediness score of 98.1 out of 100
- Ro Khanna made 13,231 trades across 800+ different tickers
- Michael McCaul made 32,302 trades and filed 6,670 of them late
- Thomas Suozzi filed 86.4% of his trades late with an average delay of 396 days, meaning his disclosures landed over a YEAR after he made the trade

And then there is Lisa McClain, the fourth-ranking Republican in the House. She has made 1,443 trades in three years, more than 98% of all politicians tracked.

She violated the STOCK Act twice in a single year, disclosing up to $900,000 in trades months after the legal deadline. Her husband bought up to $250,000 in Elon Musk's xAI, which quietly converted into SpaceX equity before last Friday's $2 trillion IPO.

The penalty for all of this? A $200 fine.

The number of Congress members ever prosecuted under the STOCK Act since it passed in 2012? Zero.

And the cruelest part is this:

A bill to ban congressional stock trading was introduced in January 2026. It has bipartisan support. Over 80% of American voters want it passed.

But Congress is sitting on it, because the people who would have to vote yes are the same people making millions from the system staying exactly the way it is.

They write the insider trading laws, they exempt themselves from enforcement, they trade on the information those laws generate, and when they get caught, they pay a fine that is basically nothing.

The AI didn't discover anything Congress was hiding. It just organized what was already public into a pattern so obvious that nobody can pretend it isn't there anymore.

[Hard Pass @HardPass4]

Good morning.

[smolting (@wassie) @inversebrah]

a lore

[Yogi @Houseofyogi]

Chicago lost the Bears this week. A team that's been in the city since 1921.

They didn't lose them to a bigger market or a better deal. The Bears decided they'd rather be a tenant in Indiana than deal with Illinois for one more year.

Think about how badly you have to run a place for that to be the smart move.

They lost them for two reasons.

The people running Illinois would rather villainize a builder than keep one. And they're bad at their jobs.

In 2021 the Bears spent $197M on the old Arlington Park racetrack.

Before they could break ground, Cook County valued the empty lot at $192M (Bears said $60M). They were salivating at the chance to extort a building that didn't even exist yet.

That fight dragged on for years.

The Bears were ready to put $2B into the stadium. All they wanted was a promise the county wouldn't reassess them into oblivion, plus $855M for infrastructure everyone uses. Roads, transit, utilities. A $3B project, two thirds of it private money pouring into Illinois.

Springfield had since 2021 to get this done. They dragged it to the final night of session, passed it through the Senate at 3:39AM, and the House went home without voting.

So now it's all gone.

The funniest part? This started because Cook County tried to grab the tax early. They knew a built stadium would pay $53M a year. Now they get under $4M on a vacant lot. No jobs, no buildout, no new anything.

Congrats on fighting for scraps and losing the whole prize.

Pritzker: they're "an $8.5B valued business" that doesn't need propping up.

But be smart for a second. Almost every NFL city throws in public money for a stadium. Not charity. The return is real. Tourism, hotels, restaurants, jobs, game days, property tax on a huge development. The math works.

Indiana did the math. While Illinois sat on it for years, Indiana passed a bill in months, put up $1B, and took the team.

And the Bears took a worse deal to get there. In Illinois they were going to own their stadium. In Indiana they rent it from the state. A team that wanted to build its own home gave up ownership just to escape Chicago.

Nobody won but Indiana. The Bears lost their stadium. Illinois lost the team, the $2B, and $53M a year in taxes.

Pritzker after they left: "I wasn't willing to give up billions of dollars of taxpayer money to give it to a billionaire-owned family or team."

There it is. "Billionaire-owned."

That's how Democrats talk about any business right before they run it out of town. Call them a billionaire, act like you're saving working families, take a victory lap while the tax base drives across the state line.

Meanwhile they're running the whole state into the ground. And you already know how this ends. You're living in it.

Pensions are $143B in the hole, worst in the country and not close. You pay $6,285 a year in property taxes, double the $2,969 national average, for a city that's $1.15B in the red. The mayor called its finances "the point of no return."

When you run things this badly, you sell what's left.

They leased the parking meters for 75 years to Morgan Stanley and a sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi. Took $1.15B and burned through it in two years. The investors already made it all back, with 58 years left to collect.

Sold the Skyway. Sold the downtown garages. Every asset that made money, gone for one check.

But a fixed property tax rate for a team that's been here 106 years? That's "propping up billionaires."

Companies are leaving. Boeing for Virginia. Caterpillar for Texas. Citadel for Miami. In 2023 alone Illinois lost 56,000 people and $6B in income to other states. The ones who left earned a third more than the ones who moved in.

Indiana didn't outbid anyone. AAA credit, 16 years straight. A $676M surplus. Fourth-lowest debt per person in the country. They just weren't a disaster.

Illinois could have collected $53M a year. It chose zero. Ignore all the bad management but make sure to stick it to those evil, pesky billionaires.

[Big Timi @OrevaZSN]

Can we make a reality show where boomers have to apply for jobs in 2026 using their own advice and see how quickly they have a mental breakdown?

[Bittex @BittexXBT]

we really got Re vs Tard pvping who will blow up first