@jdportes is right. Here is the data @cathynewman, @vicderbyshire, and @SkyNews ought to know and to have to hand the next time a politician makes the unsubstantiated claim that welfare is "spiralling out of control" on their programmes.
@johnpringdns published a thorough piece showing that BBC and Sky News presenters consistently fail to push back on these claims. The OBR time series DNS compiled tells the story:
UK social security spending as a share of GDP (OBR, EFO March 2026):
• 2010-11: 12.0%
• 2012-13: 12.1% (post-crisis peak)
• 2019-20: 10.2%
• 2024-25: 10.7%
• 2025-26: 10.9% (forecast)
The IFS puts social security at 8.3% of national income in 1979-80. Today it is 10.7%. An increase of roughly 2.5 percentage points over 45 years. Not spiralling. A slow drift.
Where did the 2.5% come from?
• Not from working-age benefits. Non-pensioner, non-health welfare fell from 4% of GDP in 2009-10 to 2.6% in 2023-24 (Work and Pensions Committee, HC 837, July 2025). Cut, repeatedly, for over a decade.
• Pensions: state pension spending sat at 3.3 to 3.7% of GDP for two decades to 2007-08; total pensioner benefit spending then rose to 5.1% by 2023-24 (OBR). Triple lock and an ageing population. Roughly 1.5% of the increase.
• Disability and incapacity: caseloads grew from 1.2% to 2.1% of GDP between 2010 and 2024-25 (Resolution Foundation). A post-pandemic public health crisis combined with the aftereffects of austerity. Not a lifestyle choice.
• 55% of the total welfare bill goes to pensioners. The state pension alone is £146bn of the £323bn total (DWP, 2025-26).
One driver is a policy choice every major party supports. The other is a public health crisis. Neither is "scroungers".
The "spiralling welfare" line does not describe a category of spending that grew. It targets a category of spending that shrank. It is not a description of reality. It is a political project to manufacture consent for further cuts to working-age support that has already been cut to the bone.
Or, in simple English, the usual bollocks that fuck over the working class and those in need.
Sources:
@johnpringdns / DNS (2 July 2026): https://t.co/JBcYbCOOeY
OBR, EFO March 2026:
https://t.co/1PM7ZBudXX
IFS, "How have the size and shape of the UK state changed?" (May 2026):
https://t.co/3AOjc4jNTR
DWP Benefit Expenditure Tables 2026:
https://t.co/hFj0lc3WZZ
House of Commons Work and Pensions Committee, HC 837 (July 2025):
https://t.co/Da9pfaeKB8
Resolution Foundation (Nov 2025): https://t.co/2z3tujKK9X
Portes "Theres a lot of nonsense talked, including on Sky, about the spiralling welfare bill.. as a proportion of our national income.. its lower than it was 15yrs ago & its pretty much back to what it was under Thatcher.. this idea its out of control is just wrong"
Spot on!
https://t.co/0i6WF31Dku
Farage made this shocking claim on May 25th.
Then never mentioned it again
Neither has anyone from his party.
You'd think they'd all be furious.
He could even use it as the basis of his claim to need £5 mil for security.
But he hasn't. Nor have they.
Another one bites The Dust:
Reform UK Kirklees councillor, Susan Maxfield, has resigned from Reform UK just weeks after being elected saying she has had enough.
This is Ofcom's acknowledgment of my complaint about GBNews funding a Farage US trip, which is against their own rules. I never heard from them again. Do they still exist?
Over paid, never here, always over there.
Farage @Nigel_Farage, a man for all donors, loyal to a £5million bung, will fuck his country for money, patriotic to the highest bidder
So hideaway Farage is now hiding in the US it seems
What is it having to be there to pretend that he is important to the senile orange one on the 250th annuversay?
Or just safe knowing Americans won't care about £5million bungs
Why hasn't Farage been charged yet?
Section 2 of the Bribery Act 2010 creates the offence of being bribed. It covers five alternative ways in which the offence can be committed.
A person commits an offence if they:
Request, agree to receive, or accept a financial or other advantage, intending that, as a result, they will perform a relevant function or activity improperly.
Request, agree to receive, or accept an advantage where the request or acceptance itself amounts to the improper performance of a relevant function or activity.
Request, agree to receive, or accept an advantage as a reward for having already performed a relevant function or activity improperly.
In anticipation of, or in consequence of, requesting, agreeing to receive or accepting an advantage, improperly perform a relevant function or activity.
Improperly perform a relevant function or activity as a reward for requesting, agreeing to receive or accepting an advantage.
The “relevant function or activity” is defined in sections 3–5 of the Act. It includes public functions (such as those carried out by an MP or MEP), business activities, professional activities, and employment, where the person is expected to act in good faith, impartially, or from a position of trust.
Reform is now funded by 3 billionaires.
Christopher Harborne - a tax exile living tax free in Thailand under their special tax regime
Ben Delo - a tax exile living tax free in Hong Kong under their special tax regime
Sasan Ghandehari - a tax exile living tax free in Switzerland under their special tax regime
The party of the people.
You’re weekend reminder Nigel Farage wants to
- leave the ECHR
- repeal the Equality Act
- Strip back workers rights
- Lift restrictions on exploitative zero-hours contracts
- repeal the Renters’ Rights Act which abolishes “no fault evictions”
PLEASE DON’T FALL FOR IT
Raise The Colours leadership:
Ryan Bridge - wanted in Spain, fraud
Billy Allison - charged with murder
Danny Tommo - jailed, kidnapping
Ben Cullen - on trial TODAY, child images
Kevin Good - 9yrs, GBH
You don't have to be criminal to join. But it helps.
Two years ago today the people of Clacton elected me as their MP. Since then I have held no constituency surgeries, hardly visited the place and earned more than twenty times as much as my MP salary in outside grifts.
Patriot @RealDannyTommo ex wife, you expect these men to protect your women and children when they beat their own up?
He plied a telford rape gang victim with drugs and alcohol to try and have sex with her.
They’re just after your money, grifting scumbags.
RETWEET & SHARE!!!