mkt.eth 🎰

trader 📊 l wall st. vagabond | global macro 🏛️ | crypto derivatives OG | volatility bug 🪲 ➡️ I breathe convexity and asymmetry, grounded by a pinch of fear

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

The winning trade of 2022:

Long physical.
Short virtual.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

orange man next?

[amit @amitisinvesting]

Guys.

Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, is going to jail.

This guy used X to move share prices and make $20M. He also tried shorting Palantir and posting on X to get people to short with him. Well…that didn’t work.

When people ask me why I don’t post about these sub $500M market caps or low float stocks…this is why.

PLEASE BE CAREFUL.

I cannot believe some people here with big followings post about these names as if they don’t realize they absolutely can move the stock. Worst is when they post about the stock going up as if they weren’t the ones that moved it…are you begging for the SEC to come visit you?

You don’t mess around with the SEC. If you don’t have Elon-lawyer type of money, you really don’t mess around with the SEC.

I don’t care how good your thesis is, if the float is small enough to be moved because of your content then YOU HAVE TO take it seriously. I’ve literally seen people ask me to talk about a $30M market cap company as if that would be a smart thing to do. It’s not worth it.

It’s never worth it.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

@CryptoNobler these are the exchange's unhedged delta repackaged to look like a whale account. They have hundreds of these and some are bound to look invincible at some point.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

@CryptoHayes @hidden_whale @Icecoldhodl @mikealfred Without visibility into the actual recycling flows on the back of the issuance you can't really capture the complete gamma dynamics across strikes.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

@CryptoHayes @hidden_whale @Icecoldhodl @mikealfred That's why I'm leaning twds fast money flow picking off the surface on front end dowside which dealers are usually happy to cross hedge against their long far vega. q4 last yr when vol compression drove complacent pricing on downside and put skews became ridiculously cheap.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

@CryptoHayes @hidden_whale @Icecoldhodl @mikealfred Dealer is long berms from the autocall and long downside digi from the barrier at inception. Yes this means they need to buy back spot to hedge once the downside barrier is (close to being) hit . But I'm not sure if there's a gamma flip in the payoff itself as spot goes down.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

@hidden_whale @CryptoHayes @Icecoldhodl @mikealfred Without visibility into the actual recycling flows on the back of the issuance you can't really capture the complete gamma dynamics across strikes.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

@hidden_whale @CryptoHayes @Icecoldhodl @mikealfred Aren't majority of the issuances structural long vol/long gamma supply for the dealer books? Why would they panick sell delta when spot collapses? Unless they got carried away recycling the inventory and sold some shark hedgie way too much downside strikes.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

@hidden_whale @CryptoHayes @Icecoldhodl @mikealfred That's why I'm leaning twds fast money flow picking off the surface on front end dowside which dealers are usually happy to cross hedge against their long far vega. q4 last yr when vol compression drove complacent pricing on downside and put skews became ridiculously cheap.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

@hidden_whale @CryptoHayes @Icecoldhodl @mikealfred Dealer is long berms from the autocall and long downside digi from the barrier at inception. Yes this means they need to buy back spot to hedge once the downside barrier is (close to being) hit . But I'm not sure if there's a gamma flip in the payoff itself as spot goes down.

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

Hey $NG bears, don't forget to pick up the phone when your broker calls with that margin request.

Can't even remember the last time HDDs ripped this hard over a weekend.

US facing a brutal 15-day freeze. Expecting a string of cities near the Great Lakes to tank to -30ºC, with the Northeast hitting -20ºC.

Latest runs show the cold bleeding even further south—Texas is officially in the crosshairs.

#oott #natgas

[Andrea Paltry, Ph.D. @andrepaltry]

Get ready for the monster gap up #natgas

[Pedro Domingos @pmddomingos]

RIP Stack Overflow.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

The Trump playbook has changed - he needs an economy he can control and manipulate, that means more centralization and less individual financial sovereignty, at least until the midterms. It's time to stop cheering on the old headlines. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trump #Midterms2026

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

Trump is clearly doubling down on old-school financial populism:
✅ $200B GSE MBS buy to juice housing affordability
✅ 10% cap on credit-card rates

Classic midterm voter bait for young families drowning in leverage.

Most crypto folks have NOT woken up to what this means.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

NEW: Trump says he's instructing unnamed representatives to buy $200 billion in MBS in a bid to narrow mortgage spreads and bring down rates.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

Without new policy catalysts - be it ETF approvals, stablecoin clarity, DeFi frameworks, crypto could face a much more drawn-out period of bottom-finding. Trump’s pivot is the early tell: populist economics > crypto adoption.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

💥Plausible that US Govt may hv used backdoor access to iPhone's geotagging. How? I'm guessing through facial recognition in this exact video footage. While China did institute a ban on iPhones among officials, some younger clerks may still carry them privately as a 2nd device 🤯

[Mila Joy @Milajoy]

China went to meet with Maduro today to discuss joining forces, then Trump captures Maduro the same day.

Savage.

In fact, the Chinese delegation is still in Venezuela.

Trump captures Maduro and sends a powerful message to Xi and China at the same time.

Savage.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

If crypto throws a holiday tantrum, it could take another hit in its institutional appeal. This market is already plagued by extreme volatility and thin liquidity - add a meltdown during the festive lull, it'll make investors run, esp. at a time when big boys are in the game.

[mkt.eth 🎰 @mkt_eth]

Commodities are clearly soaking up bulk of the global liquidity since megatech concentration became stretched in late Q2. Risk assets and retail favorites are just along for the ride.