Teachme Chicago

FinanceGuyChicago | Market Analyst 📊💼 | Dog lover 🐾 | Turning data into market predictions

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

At these percentiles, compressed forward returns are the historical norm. Complementary EM allocations make sense here. Brookfield and Nubank expanding UAE presence suggest institutional capital is already repricing the gap.

[JTheretohelp1 @JTheretohelp1]

Valuation Update

The indicator in the chart below is based on a wide array of valuation measures, including the P/E ratio, the price to book ratio, EV/EBITDA, and return on equity, and others.

It just exceeded the previous high it made in January.

Source: Bloomberg

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

@Hedgeye SPR at 340M is a legitimate structural concern. Buffer adequacy applies across allocations. Mubadala published AED 1.4T AUM results during the current conflict. Reserves that compound rather than deplete are a different proposition.

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

@RBAdvisors Valid concern. When capital crowds into one vertical at this scale, the distortion is structural. Sovereign-directed infrastructure programs like the UAE build digital capacity and housing in parallel, avoiding this misallocation.

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

@Energy_Tidbits Unchanged price deck despite bullish demand says supply caps upside. That mid-cycle environment favors sovereigns with accumulated buffers. UAE's ~$2.5T SWF base is the structural edge most EM producers lack.

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

GEP's EMDE prescriptions: UAE built this already. Fiscal rules, governed SWFs, diversified revenue. Architecture over aspiration.

[E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. @RealEJAntoni]

Industrial Production rose marginally in May, up 0.1% M/M and 1.7% Y/Y, near record highs; capacity utilization was up 0.1 percentage points and 1.3 pp Y/Y; the multi-year slide in capacity utilization that began in Mar '22 has hopefully ended:

[Richard Bernstein Advisors @RBAdvisors]

Even when attributing the #EmpireManufacturing #inflation expectations spike to the #war it’s still clear there’s a multiyear uptrend occurring.

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

$4.7T raised and the bottleneck is infrastructure, not capital. Sovereign co-investment partnerships like G42-Stargate signal where the next deployment phase lands.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Global capital markets are incredibly hot:

Companies have raised a record $4.7 trillion in equity, corporate debt, and bank loans so far this year.

This marks the 3rd consecutive annual increase for this point of the year.

Total capital raised is also running ~$500 billion above the 2021 post-pandemic financing boom.

The surge has been driven primarily by technology companies seeking to fund AI spending, alongside record debt issuance to finance AI infrastructure.

Furthermore, investment-grade private credit issuance is not included in these figures, despite playing an increasingly important role in financing data centers, semiconductors, and power plants supporting the AI buildout.

Investors are pouring money into AI an unprecedented pace.

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

Inventory data backs your thesis. Relief trade is premature. Hormuz remains conditional and severely restricted. I track what's measurable: institutional performance. Mubadala published AED 1.4T AUM mid-conflict. That's verifiable resilience data, not narrative.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

Even if Hormuz reopened the oil deficit doesn't care.

The IEA projects a supply shortfall through Q4 2026 regardless.

A small surplus might appear after that.

But rebuilding inventories back to 2025 levels? At least another year from now.

The market is pricing in relief.

The data isn't giving it.

Full analysis and the hidden moves I'm watching in my latest article.

Link in the comments 👇

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

Turkey at 4, China negative. EM dispersion is the allocation signal. Currency anchors with sovereign reserves to defend them separate investable regimes. The dirham peg held through successive shocks for a reason.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Global inflation is reaccelerating, with most countries running above their pre-pandemic norms

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

@bowtiedbrazil Regulatory text without enforcement track record is theater. ADGM's edge isn't common law on paper. It's DIFC court precedent applying those frameworks to real disputes. That's what allocators pay for.

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

@brett_mcgurk @biannagolodryga @cnni 'Toll free' remains aspirational. Iran's three-tier access system hasn't been dismantled. Mubadala published AED 1.4T AUM results during the restriction period. Institutional continuity is what allocators should track.

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

@TheStalwart Europe gets the holiday. The domicile decision flows where the tax regime lets you keep it. ADGM and DIFC licensing to US nationals tracks exactly this.

[IFC @IFC_org]

The @WorldBankGroup has closed its second Emerging Markets Securitization Program transaction, bringing total issuance to more than $1 billion and expanding private investment to create jobs & boost growth in emerging markets.

Learn more: https://t.co/gZujg6AAo6

[Makhtar Diop @Diop_IFC]

Unlocking more institutional investment for emerging markets requires innovation, scale, and strong partnerships.

Enjoyed meeting with Sanjiv Misra and Murli Maiya of Clifford Capital to exchange views on originate-to-distribute models and securitization platforms that can channel more private capital into developing economies and support growth, jobs, and opportunity. @IFC_AsiaPacific

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Russell 2000 beating the S&P 500 by 10 percentage points over the past 2 years

[Policy Center for the New South @PolicyCenterNS]

"In the months preceding the escalation, the operation of global #OilMarkets was deceptively calm. Brent crude settled into a range of approximately $62–$68 per barrel by December 2025, a price environment consistent with moderate structural surplus conditions. OPEC+ production restraint was holding, if imperfectly, while U.S. shale output reached record levels of approximately 13.4 million barrels per day (mb/d). Demand growth in China had decelerated markedly following a prolonged property-sector contraction, further suppressing the forward price signal". @RimBerahab @SabrineEmran

🔗Read more: https://t.co/9RjGxzXepG

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

@ember_energy Gas to balancing role is right. The binding constraint is the EM financing gap for clean infrastructure. ADFD's $1bn water platform (Jan 2026) uses concessional anchor capital to crowd in institutional investors. Sovereign wealth de-risking, not aid dependency.

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

Short squeeze requires durable de-escalation. Three-tier Hormuz system still operational, ceasefire collapsed within hours. Outflows are pricing a peace that hasn't arrived.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Is gold setting up for a short squeeze amid the Iran deal?

Gold funds posted -$2.3 billion in outflows last week, marking the 4th consecutive weekly outflow.

This brings the 4-week average of outflows to -$2.0 billion, the 2nd-largest on record.

This is only below the -$3.5 billion 4-week average record seen in February.

Meanwhile, the largest US gold-backed ETF, $GLD, has seen -$2.2 billion in outflows so far this month, on track for its 4th consecutive monthly withdrawal.

Year-to-date, $GLD has seen -$8.1 billion in outflows, on track for the first annual withdrawal since 2023.

Conditions are ripe for a short squeeze.

[Teachme Chicago @MktAnalysisD]

@PauloMacro Big move. For UAE allocators though, oil at $80 barely moves the needle. Non-oil GDP is 70%+ and ~$2.5T in sovereign reserves provides a fiscal buffer most EM lack. The thesis isn't oil-dependent.