MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter

Modeling expected outcomes to simulate MLB games, inspired by @MoneyPuckdotcom.

Code: @DerekGrifka

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

Hi! Launched a Streamlit app for the Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter. You can now easily search any game from the 2025 season (soon 2026). Note I added spray angle to the model, which accounts for where balls are hit on the field, not just how hard.

https://t.co/EucX7OFum4

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

Playoff Probabilities — June 04, 2026

Biggest movers:
↑ #RingTheBell +7.5%
↑ #Athletics +6.9%
↑ #WhiteSox +6.7%

Rooting guides: who does your team need today?

#MLB

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Dodgers @ D-backs
06/03/2026

Final: Dodgers 7, D-backs 0
Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 100% / D-backs 0% (Tie 0%)
https://t.co/XtzZh396p0

#MLB #Dodgers #Dbacks

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Rockies @ Angels
06/03/2026

Final: Rockies 4, Angels 11
Deserve-to-Win: Rockies 10% / Angels 84% (Tie 7%)
https://t.co/qs6hdIuA0N

#MLB #Rockies #RepTheHalo

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

🚨 Astros are luck merchants! 🚨

⚾ Pirates @ Astros
06/03/2026

Final: Pirates 9, Astros 11
Deserve-to-Win: Pirates 72% / Astros 19% (Tie 9%)
https://t.co/zfcNgKk4Wk

#MLB #LetsGoBucs #ChaseTheFight

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Athletics @ Cubs
06/03/2026

Final: Athletics 5, Cubs 4
Deserve-to-Win: Athletics 75% / Cubs 15% (Tie 10%)
https://t.co/HEPZadjdJD

#MLB #Athletics #Cubs

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Rangers @ Cardinals
06/03/2026

Final: Rangers 3, Cardinals 5
Deserve-to-Win: Rangers 32% / Cardinals 52% (Tie 15%)
https://t.co/DfK44cSISF

#MLB #AllForTX #STLCards

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Giants @ Brewers
06/03/2026

Final: Giants 1, Brewers 0
Deserve-to-Win: Giants 69% / Brewers 15% (Tie 15%)
https://t.co/85YHi6x1Kq

#MLB #SFGiants #ThisIsMyCrew

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Royals @ Reds
06/03/2026

Final: Royals 5, Reds 2
Deserve-to-Win: Royals 45% / Reds 38% (Tie 17%)
https://t.co/W5LHpTRvpw

#MLB #FountainsUp #ATOBTTR

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Blue Jays @ Braves
06/03/2026

Final: Blue Jays 3, Braves 7
Deserve-to-Win: Blue Jays 35% / Braves 53% (Tie 13%)
https://t.co/p2evimyuWp

#MLB #BlueJays50 #BravesCountry

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Guardians @ Yankees
06/03/2026

Final: Guardians 5, Yankees 4
Deserve-to-Win: Guardians 38% / Yankees 45% (Tie 17%)
https://t.co/PSIl9z47bt

#MLB #GuardsBall #RepBX

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Orioles @ Red Sox
06/03/2026

Final: Orioles 1, Red Sox 8
Deserve-to-Win: Orioles 16% / Red Sox 74% (Tie 10%)
https://t.co/VzlcdvEwZe

#MLB #Birdland #DirtyWater

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Padres @ Phillies
06/03/2026

Final: Padres 2, Phillies 3
Deserve-to-Win: Padres 6% / Phillies 87% (Tie 7%)
https://t.co/gLUjNmdgUO

#MLB #ForTheFaithful #RingTheBell

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Mets @ Mariners
06/03/2026

Final: Mets 7, Mariners 1
Deserve-to-Win: Mets 58% / Mariners 26% (Tie 16%)
https://t.co/IY8Ookt6cC

#MLB #LGM #TridentsUp

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ White Sox @ Twins
06/03/2026

Final: White Sox 8, Twins 0
Deserve-to-Win: White Sox 97% / Twins 1% (Tie 2%)
https://t.co/ML1Y1NOosZ

#MLB #WhiteSox #NoPlaceLikeHERE

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Marlins @ Nationals
06/03/2026

Final: Marlins 4, Nationals 1
Deserve-to-Win: Marlins 99% / Nationals 0% (Tie 1%)
https://t.co/J3OL4ZiZ0S

#MLB #FightinFish #Natitude

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Tigers @ Rays
06/03/2026

Final: Tigers 7, Rays 2
Deserve-to-Win: Tigers 94% / Rays 2% (Tie 3%)
https://t.co/SRBP0DffiN

#MLB #DNMW #RaysUp

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

Luckiest Hits of the Week
May 27 - Jun 02

1. T. Walls (#RaysUp) — Single (xBA: 0.016)
2. B. Rice (#RepBX) — Double (xBA: 0.020)
3. W. Adames (#SFGiants) — Double (xBA: 0.022)
4. T. Callihan (#LetsGoBucs) — Double (xBA: 0.023)

Video/Data: MLB
#Statcast

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

Playoff Probabilities — June 03, 2026

Biggest movers:
↑ #LetsGoBucs +7.2%
↓ #WhiteSox -6.7%
↑ #RingTheBell +6.4%

Rooting guides: who does your team need today?

#MLB

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

🚨 Dodgers are luck merchants! 🚨

⚾ Dodgers @ D-backs
06/02/2026

Final: Dodgers 6, D-backs 5
Deserve-to-Win: Dodgers 32% / D-backs 57% (Tie 11%)
https://t.co/gezaZanS7v

#MLB #Dodgers #Dbacks

[MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter @mlb_simulator]

⚾ Rockies @ Angels
06/02/2026

Final: Rockies 8, Angels 2
Deserve-to-Win: Rockies 66% / Angels 22% (Tie 12%)
https://t.co/bsxfD71Kn2

#MLB #Rockies #RepTheHalo