Institutional MLB Intelligence. Modeling Major League Baseball as a Stochastic Service System. Statistics-only research with radical transparency. #MLBall
⚾ Early Baseline · Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves
Game: 2026-06-04 · 6:15 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 10:29 AM CT
Blue Jays: 40.9% · 3.8 runs
Braves: 59.1% · 5.2 runs
Projected Total: 9.0 runs
Confirmed forecast posts 30 minutes before first pitch.
https://t.co/Bj2GgfIIWX
#BlueJays #Braves
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
⚡ Win Probability
San Francisco Giants 95.3%
Milwaukee Brewers 4.7%
Coming Up — Top 10th
5. Jung Hoo Lee 4-5
6. Bryce Eldridge 3-5
7. Matt Chapman 3-5
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
Game: 2026-06-04 · 01:10 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 4:29 PM CT
Win Probability — SF leading
Morning SF 41.7% · MIL 58.3%
Pre-Game SF 41.7% · MIL 58.3%
After 1st SF 56.5% ↑ · MIL 43.5%
After 2nd SF 54.4% ↓ · MIL 45.6%
After 3rd SF 51.2% ↓ · MIL 48.8%
After 4th SF 40.0% ↓ · MIL 60.0%
After 5th SF 34.9% ↓ · MIL 65.1%
After 6th SF 30.8% ↓ · MIL 69.2%
After 7th SF 25.3% ↓ · MIL 74.7%
After 8th SF 10.0% ↓ · MIL 90.0%
After 9th SF 6.2% ↓ · MIL 93.8%
Now SF 95.3% ↑ · MIL 4.7% ←
Score: SF 12 · MIL 7
#SFGiants #MLBall
Live Telemetry · ⚡ FORECAST EXCEEDED · Rafael Devers (San Francisco Giants)
Game: 2026-06-04 · 1:10 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 4:14 PM CT
Live: 2 TB · 0 HR · 1 H · 0 RBI · 0 R · 0 K · SI 4.8
https://t.co/Bj2GgfIIWX
Full Game Thread: https://t.co/wOrFazCbsa
#Giants#MLBall
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
⚡ Win Probability
Milwaukee Brewers 6.2%
San Francisco Giants 93.8%
Coming Up — Bot 9th
2. Jackson Chourio 2-4
3. Brice Turang 2-3
4. William Contreras 0-3
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
Game: 2026-06-04 · 01:10 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 4:11 PM CT
Win Probability — MIL trailing
Morning MIL 58.3% · SF 41.7%
Pre-Game MIL 58.3% · SF 41.7%
After 1st MIL 43.5% ↓ · SF 56.5%
After 2nd MIL 45.6% ↑ · SF 54.4%
After 3rd MIL 48.8% ↑ · SF 51.2%
After 4th MIL 60.0% ↑ · SF 40.0%
After 5th MIL 65.1% ↑ · SF 34.9%
After 6th MIL 69.2% ↑ · SF 30.8%
After 7th MIL 74.7% ↑ · SF 25.3%
After 8th MIL 90.0% ↑ · SF 10.0%
After 9th MIL 93.8% ↑ · SF 6.2%
Now MIL 6.2% ↓ · SF 93.8% ←
Score: SF 12 · MIL 6
#ThisIsMyCrew #MLBall
⚡ Win Probability
San Francisco Giants 93.8%
Milwaukee Brewers 6.2%
Coming Up — Top 9th
1. Casey Schmitt 2-5
2. Rafael Devers 0-5
3. Luis Arraez 2-5
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
Game: 2026-06-04 · 01:10 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 4:02 PM CT
Win Probability — SF leading
Morning SF 41.7% · MIL 58.3%
Pre-Game SF 41.7% · MIL 58.3%
After 1st SF 56.5% ↑ · MIL 43.5%
After 2nd SF 54.4% ↓ · MIL 45.6%
After 3rd SF 51.2% ↓ · MIL 48.8%
After 4th SF 40.0% ↓ · MIL 60.0%
After 5th SF 34.9% ↓ · MIL 65.1%
After 6th SF 30.8% ↓ · MIL 69.2%
After 7th SF 25.3% ↓ · MIL 74.7%
After 8th SF 10.0% ↓ · MIL 90.0%
Now SF 93.8% ↑ · MIL 6.2% ←
Score: SF 12 · MIL 5
#SFGiants #MLBall
⚡ Win Probability
Milwaukee Brewers 10.0%
San Francisco Giants 90.0%
Coming Up — Bot 8th
1. Christian Yelich 2-5
2. Jackson Chourio 2-4
3. Brice Turang 2-3
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
Game: 2026-06-04 · 01:10 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 3:57 PM CT
Win Probability — MIL trailing
Morning MIL 58.3% · SF 41.7%
Pre-Game MIL 58.3% · SF 41.7%
After 1st MIL 43.5% ↓ · SF 56.5%
After 2nd MIL 45.6% ↑ · SF 54.4%
After 3rd MIL 48.8% ↑ · SF 51.2%
After 4th MIL 60.0% ↑ · SF 40.0%
After 5th MIL 65.1% ↑ · SF 34.9%
After 6th MIL 69.2% ↑ · SF 30.8%
After 7th MIL 74.7% ↑ · SF 25.3%
After 8th MIL 90.0% ↑ · SF 10.0%
Now MIL 10.0% ↓ · SF 90.0% ←
Score: SF 12 · MIL 5
#ThisIsMyCrew #MLBall
⚡ Win Probability
San Francisco Giants 90.0%
Milwaukee Brewers 10.0%
Coming Up — Top 8th
7. Matt Chapman 3-4
8. Eric Haase 1-4
9. Drew Gilbert 2-4
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
Game: 2026-06-04 · 01:10 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 3:49 PM CT
Win Probability — SF leading
Morning SF 41.7% · MIL 58.3%
Pre-Game SF 41.7% · MIL 58.3%
After 1st SF 56.5% ↑ · MIL 43.5%
After 2nd SF 54.4% ↓ · MIL 45.6%
After 3rd SF 51.2% ↓ · MIL 48.8%
After 4th SF 40.0% ↓ · MIL 60.0%
After 5th SF 34.9% ↓ · MIL 65.1%
After 6th SF 30.8% ↓ · MIL 69.2%
After 7th SF 25.3% ↓ · MIL 74.7%
Now SF 90.0% ↑ · MIL 10.0% ←
Score: SF 12 · MIL 5
#SFGiants #MLBall
⚾ Early Baseline · Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Game: 2026-06-04 · 12:35 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 10:29 AM CT
Orioles: 50.6% · 4.9 runs
Red Sox: 49.4% · 4.6 runs
Projected Total: 9.5 runs
Confirmed forecast posts 30 minutes before first pitch.
https://t.co/Bj2GgfIIWX
#Orioles #RedSox
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
⚾ Early Baseline · San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
Game: 2026-06-04 · 12:05 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 10:29 AM CT
Padres: 47.7% · 3.9 runs
Phillies: 52.3% · 4.2 runs
Projected Total: 8.1 runs
Confirmed forecast posts 30 minutes before first pitch.
https://t.co/Bj2GgfIIWX
#Padres #Phillies
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
Live Telemetry · ⚡ MULTI-HIT GAME · Willy Adames (San Francisco Giants)
Game: 2026-06-04 · 1:10 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 3:39 PM CT
Live: 3 TB · 0 HR · 2 H · 0 RBI · 0 R · 0 K · SI 4.4
https://t.co/Bj2GgfIIWX
Full Game Thread: https://t.co/wOrFazCbsa
#Giants#MLBall
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
⚡ Win Probability
Milwaukee Brewers 18.4%
San Francisco Giants 81.6%
Coming Up — Bot 7th
2. Jackson Chourio 1-3
3. Brice Turang 2-3
4. William Contreras 0-3
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
Game: 2026-06-04 · 01:10 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 3:36 PM CT
Win Probability — MIL trailing
Morning MIL 58.3% · SF 41.7%
Pre-Game MIL 58.3% · SF 41.7%
After 1st MIL 43.5% ↓ · SF 56.5%
After 2nd MIL 45.6% ↑ · SF 54.4%
After 3rd MIL 48.8% ↑ · SF 51.2%
After 4th MIL 60.0% ↑ · SF 40.0%
After 5th MIL 65.1% ↑ · SF 34.9%
After 6th MIL 69.2% ↑ · SF 30.8%
After 7th MIL 74.7% ↑ · SF 25.3%
Now MIL 18.4% ↓ · SF 81.6% ←
Score: SF 11 · MIL 3
#ThisIsMyCrew #MLBall
⚡ Win Probability
Baltimore Orioles 96.0%
Boston Red Sox 4.0%
Coming Up — Top 10th
9. Jackson Holliday 0-4
1. Taylor Ward 3-5
2. Gunnar Henderson 0-5
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
Game: 2026-06-04 · 12:35 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 3:18 PM CT
Win Probability — BAL leading
Morning BAL 50.6% · BOS 49.4%
Pre-Game BAL 50.6% · BOS 49.4%
After 1st BAL 50.1% ↓ · BOS 49.9%
After 2nd BAL 43.4% ↓ · BOS 56.6%
After 3rd BAL 41.4% ↓ · BOS 58.6%
After 4th BAL 34.4% ↓ · BOS 65.6%
After 5th BAL 30.4% ↓ · BOS 69.6%
After 6th BAL 23.4% ↓ · BOS 76.6%
After 7th BAL 16.1% ↓ · BOS 83.9%
After 8th BAL 8.8% ↓ · BOS 91.2%
After 9th BAL 5.5% ↓ · BOS 94.5%
Now BAL 96.0% ↑ · BOS 3.9% ←
Score: BAL 8 · BOS 2
#Birdland #MLBall
Live Telemetry · ⚡ MULTI-HIT GAME · Pete Alonso (Baltimore Orioles)
Game: 2026-06-04 · 12:35 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 3:14 PM CT
Live: 2 TB · 0 HR · 2 H · 0 RBI · 0 R · 0 K · SI 4.0
https://t.co/Bj2GgfIIWX
Full Game Thread: https://t.co/VFgAdOWmFb
#Orioles#MLBall
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e
⚾ Early Baseline · Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Game: 2026-06-04 · 12:35 PM CT
Posted: 2026-06-04 · 10:29 AM CT
Orioles: 50.6% · 4.9 runs
Red Sox: 49.4% · 4.6 runs
Projected Total: 9.5 runs
Confirmed forecast posts 30 minutes before first pitch.
https://t.co/Bj2GgfIIWX
#Orioles #RedSox
🔴 LIVE win probability after every play → https://t.co/LRPGwXUb6e