M L Kibler

Data & Economics informed decision making
Sailor, hockey, mountain biking
Learned to cook so always have something yummy to eat
Everyone should read False Alarm

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Peter’s eternal optimism is cool

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

The real reason oil is below $100/bbl. It isn’t fundamentals. It’s capital aversion. Policy uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. Investor VaR has collapsed by c.$5B. Open interest is at the lowest level in years. Global oil stocks are still drawing 5-6mb/d; however, investors say they don't care.

Start with investor VaR - the best measure of how much capital is willing to engage with oil. It has collapsed to $1.4B (see chart). Not forced out by rising rates, sanctions or external margin calls. Investors are simply choosing not to hold. The policy noise - deal on/off, attack, not attack - has made the carry uncompensable.

VaR compression has one direct consequence: it drains open interest. Contracts are closed. Market depth disappears. 2026 YTD open interest decline is the worst on record. Unlike 2022, there’s no rates shock or sanctions forcing the exit. This is capital aversion.

Managed Money VaR and YTD OI Change

[M L Kibler @mlkibler]

@DavidGebala ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️

[David Gebala @DavidGebala]

Maya was a little excited to head out for a walk in the sun ❤️ #mayastrong

[YouSceneThis? @YouSceneThis]

Lynda Carter as Wonder Woman (1975–1979).

[Great Canadian Moose @Great_Cdn_Moose]

Mark Carney PANICS As Canada's $21 Billion dollar Waste Giant GFL OFFICIALLY Abandons Ontario For Miami Beach!

Why so silent Mark?
You are Canadas biggest problem!

[The Food Professor @FoodProfessor]

The Prime Minister is expected to unveil new measures tomorrow to strengthen Canada's food system and improve affordability. I recently discussed this idea with the Minister of Agriculture (Picture).

If I were Prime Minister, my priorities would be straightforward:

• Make food affordability a national priority and require all new policies and regulations to be assessed through a food affordability lens.
• Increase competition across the food supply chain.
• Modernize supply management to improve competitiveness and trade flexibility.
• Mandate Farm Credit Canada to play a much larger role in supporting agri-food startups, scale-ups, and accelerator programs.
• Accelerate AI and automation adoption to boost productivity.
• Invest in trade infrastructure and logistics.
• Cut regulatory duplication that raises costs.
• Expand domestic food processing capacity.
• Focus on food security through innovation, investment, and competitiveness.

Canada doesn't have a food shortage problem. It has a productivity and competitiveness problem.

[Jimmie Johnson @JimmieJohnson]

Ned Jarrett was one of the kindest people I've had the privilege to know in our sport.
I'll never forget hearing him call Dale's Daytona 500 victory, one of the most memorable moments in NASCAR history. Over the years, I've been fortunate to get to know Dale and work alongside him, which makes this loss feel even more personal.
My thoughts are with the entire Jarrett family. Ned's impact on our sport will never be forgotten.

[Rod D. Martin @RodDMartin]

🧵The USS Nimitz — America’s oldest aircraft carrier, laid down in 1968 and scheduled for decommissioning this month — just showed up off Cuba’s coast instead.

Raul Castro better watch out. There's a cell beside Maduro's!

Trump isn’t letting old ships rust. He’s using them to project power. 🧵

[Gad Saad @GadSaad]

About to board Air Force One at @RonaldReagan.

[RMC86 @RMC19861987]

"The 🇨🇦 economy is notoriously weak, productivity is low, investment has been drying up... even amid a trade war, there is still an astonishing amount of stuff flowing across this border."
If we're going to double our non-US exports, why did 🇨🇦 spend $6.4 billion on a new bridge to the 🇺🇸?
Because we're not. It was all Carney chest puffing. Millions of gullible Canadians fell for it.

[Dr. Sheila Nazarian @sheilanazarian]

The Islamist regime will never give up. They will keep coming for America because it is their mission on earth to destroy us. Please don’t apply American values on these monsters. You expect the devil to keep its word?

[Yukon Strong 🫎 @YukonStrong]

Have you ever heard a Somalian ask for Canadian Somali month? Me either.

It's not about recognition, acceptance or compassion.

This is purely and singularly about erasing Canadian culture, forever.

[Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 @ezralevant]

The U.S. denied him entry because they say he has links to the Islamic terrorist group, Al-Shabaab.

So it's perfectly on-brand for Canada to welcome him in, no questions asked.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

The President a classic. 👇

President Trump announcement on oil.

[Pierre Poilievre @PierrePoilievre]

Saddened to hear of the death of OPP Constable Tarun Bali, who lost his life in the line of duty today.

It’s easy to forget that every day, thousands of officers across our country put on their uniform and put their lives on the line to protect our communities.

We mourn with the family, loved ones, and colleagues of Const. Bali, and the entire policing community.

[Keith Wilson @ikwilson]

Cenovus Warns Oil Sands Growth Is Drying Up as Policy Uncertainty Mounts https://t.co/8rDfEmB9mR #oilprice

[The Food Professor @FoodProfessor]

Coming back from a 3-day trip to Philadelphia and Delaware. One topic kept coming up: Data centres and AI.

The U.S. is in the middle of the largest data-centre buildout in its history, driven by AI. Roughly 800 new AI-focused data centre projects are currently planned or under construction across the country.

Depending on how these projects evolve, between 250,000 and 630,000 acres of land could eventually be dedicated to AI infrastructure—an area ranging from larger than New York City to nearly the size of Rhode Island.

Nationally, that's a tiny fraction of America's 880 million acres of farmland. But locally, it's a different story. Many of these projects are being built on or near productive agricultural land because that's where large parcels, water access, and power infrastructure exist.

The real question isn't whether AI will consume all our farmland. It won't. The question is whether AI can outbid agriculture for land, water, and electricity in some of North America's most productive farming regions.

The AI revolution isn't just about chips and algorithms. It's increasingly about land use.

#AI #Agriculture #FoodSecurity #DataCenters

[Martin Pelletier @MPelletierCIO]

I will say it one last time. BI-LATERAL AGREEMENTS.

[Larry Brock @LarryBrockMP]

Congratulations to Sophie Jovanovic on becoming the first female player in history to be selected in the Ontario Hockey League’s Under-18 Priority Selection by our very own Brantford Bulldogs!

Brantford is proud to welcome such an amazing player to the Bulldogs. Best of luck, Sophie, we'll be cheering you on every step of the way!
https://t.co/waC4itFq8s