You are correct. It just keeps the bullish case alive if it doesn’t take out low of March 23. But it won’t confirm bullish case either. First needs to take out 7950 then 8400 area.
@mmacycles Sir, even if the primary cycle bottom is confirmed this week, if next week's rebound fails to break through 79, it still won't be enough to avert the danger of the long-term 50-week and 47-month cycles turning downward, will it?
Bitcoin: in same position as Gold with half-primary cycle low due. Needs to hold support at 63-67K or else primary cycle turns bearish, probably into Aug-Nov, with target still to or below 30K
Gold and Silver: this is a critical week for metals as Gold is in the time band for a half primary cycle low snd Moon is now in Capricorn and Aquarius while Sun is in Gemini (air-air). If the bullish case is still alive for this primary cycle, a low probably needs to be completed this week. Otherwise longer-term 50-week snd 47-month cycles is in danger of turning down and taking out the lows of 2026 so far.
Although anything is possible, and any market could exhibit “blow off” rallies to new highs within a few weeks of the July 15-25 Jupiter convergence, I don’t put Bitcoin in that group presently.
Not at this time,Jason. We might consider an Asian-Pacific Rim markets letter once the current MMTA; class graduates. We have several exceptional students doing their research on these markets (including Hang Seng).
Well, for short- term, yes. Long-term still questionable. I still prefer to wait for 50-week and 47-month cycle lows in Gold due Aug-Dec with Jupiter in Leo for longer position trade. This trade might only be good for 1-3 weeks.
It means they are in a blowoff mode. Stocks are under Jupiter/Neptune “irrational exuberance” fumes of forthcoming Jupiter/Neptune trine around July 20. Most other markets followed the Sun/Uranus and Venus/Saturn (May 22-28) reversal themes. Even DJIA made a major cycle low May 20. But NAZ was all upside breakouts, also a Uranus characteristic in a Uranus market.
@mmacycles Hey Ray, based on your cycle analysis, BTC still has one more rebound left before entering the bottom zone, correct? Roughly when would that bounce be expected—shouldn't it rally around the June 10 Jupiter–Venus conjunction? Thanks!
In reply to Silver question: selling before new moon June 15 is possible as this will be an air-air new moon, and air-air can be dangerous for Silver.
Sun is in Gemini (air sign) now, and there will be three (sometimes 4) lunar air signs when Sun is in air. At least one of them usually has a very strong sell off. Aquarius moon air) come up later half of this week, so we need to be cautious even then, especially if Silver can’t get above 79.50 first.
But new moon in Gemini would be my choice to be most cautious this time.
I have no bias for stocks at the moment. Only interested in markets that make weekly lows here. Even better if multi week lows . Grains and metals fit well today.
Venus square Saturn now in effect. Our rule is to buy any market that’s dropping into this time band. That would include soy beans, wheat, gold and even BTC btw now and Monday.
BTC reply to Poplyn: maybe 1/2 PB is in if next rally exceeds 82K. If not, can still happen in next lunar stage for a low when in Cancer/Sagittarius in about 3-4 weeks. That’s still I. Time for 13-21 week time band for low.
Gold and Silver: First off, I think this will be a crazy and wild week, into early next week ad we enter the first Sun/Uranus conjunction in about 84 years.
Second, we start with the wild and crazy Moon in Gemini this week: start low, rally, then fall back again).
Third, Gold took out major cycle low of May 1 in the pre-market this morning and Silver did not, for a possible case of intermarket bullish divergence, so it could be a half- primary low already for Gold, which would be bullish. However, I still prefer to see that happen closer to Sun- Uranus, late this week early next week.
Which sets us up nicely for our analysis and creating strategies of metals at this week’s MMA Investment and Trading Retreat, starting this Thursday-Sunday, May 20-24. Going to be great!
Reply to Helen BTC question: Won’t break 82K on upside until half- primary low is in.
And even then it may not break above until full primary cycle low is in (if left translation pattern is to form) which is still projected for October +/- 1 month and could be as low as 30K if 82K resistance not taken out first and 60K is violated.
My bias is that we going to form a bearish left translation primary cycle because I think the 15-month. 24-month, and 4-year cycle lows are still ahead and there is still to come a report of a major corruption, theft, manipulation, or mismanagement scandal of a large crypto exchange or related company.
It always seems to happen at the end of a 4-year cycle.