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MonZa MaCro Research
@mmikeig
Cycle Based Macro Analysis | Global Liquidity and Crypto Cycles | Risk over Hype | Capital Rotation | Cycle Timing
Joined February 2024
425 Following
313 Followers
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Many expect a 2020 style crash.
But this cycle is structurally different.
Here's why 👇
@RaoulGMI Feels like we’re entering a world where productivity matters more than inflation.
If AI keeps lowering costs faster than demand rises, the old playbook may stop working.
@DfinityToday Brazil 2- Morocco 1
For almost 1 year I’ve openly been accumulating sui:native
Now, Sui is the first Layer 1 to fully eliminate gas fees for stablecoin transfers, zero cost, across seven stablecoins.
Stablecoins already move trillions a year and agents are barely a blip of that right now.
But agentic economy runs on machine-speed micropayments, and that volume is moving onto crypto rails.
So which L1 is built for that economy?
...maybe the one with $0 stablecoin fees.
The "Crypto is dead, its all going to tech stocks" narrative is alluring but overall this is the actual results from the liquidity cycle low in 2022...
@RaoulGMI Funny how every bull cycle comes with a new reason why crypto won’t work this time.
The chart keeps telling the same story
The cost of anything digital that is not scarce goes to zero in fees.
Today Sui announced that moving money is now a zero cost operation via stablecoins. sui:native
It's a big deal for zero cost....
@RaoulGMI People still think cheaper fees are just a better product.
They’re missing the bigger shift.
When moving money becomes basically free, entire business models break overnight.
That’s why this matters.
sui:native
Trump said the clock is ticking on Iran.
That was enough. BTC wiped every gain it made this month in two days.
$563 million in longs gone. ETH back at $2,100. Oil above $101 again.
This market has been doing the same thing for two months now.
Geopolitical headline drops, price dumps, longs get wrecked, shorts celebrate, then nothing actually happens and we grind back up. Rinse and repeat.
The frustrating part is the fundamentals underneath are genuinely strong.
Strategy bought $2 billion in Bitcoin last week. The CLARITY Act just passed the Senate Banking Committee.
67 million Americans now own crypto. BlackRock's ETF keeps growing.
None of it matters when a tweet from the White House moves oil $5.
This week is going to be loud.
G7 Finance Ministers today and tomorrow. Fed minutes Wednesday.
Powell's term expires.
Iran still unresolved.
I've been here before.
The setup doesn't break, it just gets messier before it gets cleaner.
Not adding.
Not panicking.
Just watching.
The people who make money in cycles like this are the ones who don't let the noise make decisions for them.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Macro
Most people look at a price chart and see numbers.
@RaoulGMI looks at a price chart and sees the entire global debt cycle.
He left Goldman Sachs at 36, retired to the Cayman Islands, and started writing macro research that nobody asked for.
Today over a million people read his every word.
Here's what he's been saying that most are still ignoring:
The S&P 500 isn't going up.
The dollar is going down.
The difference between those two sentences is everything.
Every government on earth is running the same playbook: borrow, print, debase.
Population growth is slowing. Productivity is stalling.
The only tool left is the money printer. And when the printer runs, scarce assets run harder.
His thesis is simple: $10 trillion in global debt needs refinancing in 2026.
Central banks will be forced to inject liquidity. Bitcoin has a 90% correlation with global M2.
When money supply expands, BTC moves.
He extended the crypto cycle from 4 years to 5 years because of this. The peak, in his view, is still ahead of us.
He also says something few people have the patience to hear:
Long term trends are easier to predict than short term ones.
The noise always drowns out the signal. And the people who get wealthy in crypto are not the ones who trade the news, they are the ones who understand the cycle and hold through the chaos.
BTC at $75K while macro is uncertain is not a reason to panic.
It is the setup.
Hard to find someone who explains this better.
#Bitcoin #Macro #Crypto
@RaoulGMI That’s probably the biggest shift people still don’t fully understand.
This cycle isn’t being driven by healthy economics.
It’s being driven by the political necessity of liquidity.
Most people look at a price chart and see numbers.
@RaoulGMI looks at a price chart and sees the entire global debt cycle.
He left Goldman Sachs at 36, retired to the Cayman Islands, and started writing macro research that nobody asked for.
Today over a million people read his every word.
Here's what he's been saying that most are still ignoring:
The S&P 500 isn't going up.
The dollar is going down.
The difference between those two sentences is everything.
Every government on earth is running the same playbook: borrow, print, debase.
Population growth is slowing. Productivity is stalling.
The only tool left is the money printer. And when the printer runs, scarce assets run harder.
His thesis is simple: $10 trillion in global debt needs refinancing in 2026.
Central banks will be forced to inject liquidity. Bitcoin has a 90% correlation with global M2.
When money supply expands, BTC moves.
He extended the crypto cycle from 4 years to 5 years because of this. The peak, in his view, is still ahead of us.
He also says something few people have the patience to hear:
Long term trends are easier to predict than short term ones.
The noise always drowns out the signal. And the people who get wealthy in crypto are not the ones who trade the news, they are the ones who understand the cycle and hold through the chaos.
BTC at $75K while macro is uncertain is not a reason to panic.
It is the setup.
Hard to find someone who explains this better.
#Bitcoin #Macro #Crypto
You think rates are going to blow up the economy, anon?
You under estimate the difference it is having a macro hedge fund manager running the Treasury. He knows the game, the stakes and he knows the dials.
No one is going to sacrifice the midterms if they can absolutely avoid it... and they will do EVERYTHING possible to win them.
Relax. It'll all be fine. Better than fine fine in fact. The liquidity spice is flowing, everything else will be dealt with.
Most people look at a price chart and see numbers.
@RaoulGMI looks at a price chart and sees the entire global debt cycle.
He left Goldman Sachs at 36, retired to the Cayman Islands, and started writing macro research that nobody asked for.
Today over a million people read his every word.
Here's what he's been saying that most are still ignoring:
The S&P 500 isn't going up.
The dollar is going down.
The difference between those two sentences is everything.
Every government on earth is running the same playbook: borrow, print, debase.
Population growth is slowing. Productivity is stalling.
The only tool left is the money printer. And when the printer runs, scarce assets run harder.
His thesis is simple: $10 trillion in global debt needs refinancing in 2026.
Central banks will be forced to inject liquidity. Bitcoin has a 90% correlation with global M2.
When money supply expands, BTC moves.
He extended the crypto cycle from 4 years to 5 years because of this. The peak, in his view, is still ahead of us.
He also says something few people have the patience to hear:
Long term trends are easier to predict than short term ones.
The noise always drowns out the signal. And the people who get wealthy in crypto are not the ones who trade the news, they are the ones who understand the cycle and hold through the chaos.
BTC at $75K while macro is uncertain is not a reason to panic.
It is the setup.
Hard to find someone who explains this better.
#Bitcoin #Macro #Crypto
Bitcoin dropped from $82,000 to $79,000 in one session.
Oil crossed $100.
Bond markets flipped to pricing rate hikes.
A new Fed chair took over with zero guidance.
Hormuz still closed.
This is not a trend reversal.
This is the market throwing a tantrum over uncertainty.
$76,800 is the level to watch.
Holds there, the setup is still intact.
Loses it, wait for the flush and reload.
Do not panic sell into uncertainty.
That is what the market wants you to do.
@RaoulGMI That’s probably the biggest shift people still don’t fully understand.
This cycle isn’t being driven by healthy economics.
It’s being driven by the political necessity of liquidity.
@RaoulGMI @AndreasSteno Funny thing is, the more impossible something sounds, the more attention I pay to it these days.
This cycle already broke a lot of “unlikely” assumptions.
The entire macro setup for the next 6 months comes down to two numbers
DXY stays below its 4-month high and the 10Y follows.
Bessent has one lever.
Weaken the dollar deliberately until foreign duration buyers come back to the long end
The political clock makes this non negotiable.
Republicans need the asset price rally visible before Labor Day or the midterm case collapses before it even starts
Bitcoin is the cleanest expression of this trade.
When sovereigns debase in coordination capital has nowhere to go except outside the system entirely
Watching the weekly closes on DXY and 10Y.
That is the only scorecard until September
$SUI quietly went from “retail hype” to serious infrastructure conversation faster than most expected.
Miami changed the tone.
When names tied to Wall Street, payments, stablecoins, and real capital formation start showing up around the same ecosystem, it’s no longer just another altcoin narrative.
Price moved first.
Attention followed.
Liquidity is starting to notice.
This is usually how early-stage leadership forms before the broader alt market fully wakes up.
The scary part is that none of this even sounds crazy anymore.
Debt monetization, AI capex, liquidity expansion, energy race, exponential intelligence…
all these trends are starting to reinforce each other at the same time.
Feels less like a normal cycle and more like the system entering a new phase altogether.
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