Matt 📊📈📉

“Stock markets, macroeconomics, geopolitics and Science” #Investing #Economics #Macroeconomics #Geopolitics #Science #Physics #StringTheory #quantummechanics

[Barchart @Barchart]

U.S. Treasury debt buybacks might be larger than the announced $4 Billion limit 🚨 🚨

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Moderna stock, $MRNA, surges over +110% after announcing the first ever positive Phase 3 results for a personalized cancer vaccine.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Japan is fucked.

The BoJ pays most of its profits back to the government.

It earns interest on the bonds it holds, while paying interest on bank reserves.

- JP30Y yield: ~4%
- BoJ policy rate: 1%

Every rate hike increases the BoJ's interest expense -> lowers profits -> lowers government revenue -> increases the deficit.

At 2%, the BoJ estimates it could lose money.

Japan can't afford higher rates.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Global bond markets have caught on fire. The most notable spike in long-term yields is happening for the US and France, but at this point the rise in long-term yields is truly a global phenomenon. Reckless fiscal policy is catching up with governments...
https://t.co/GRXneqxjUD

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Japan’s 30-year bond yield has spiked to 4.05% - the highest level on record. A preview of what’s coming for the US if we don’t get our deficit/debt spiral under control. The chickens eventually come home to roost.

Video: https://t.co/AsceBj2Abf

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

JGBs are tanking again. The yield on the 10-year is up to 2.95%, a twenty-year high, and the 30-year is at 4.13%, an all-time record high. This rise has caused gold to reverse earlier gains, but what's happening with JGBs and Treasuries is actually extremely bullish for gold.

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Japan

Japan's 10-Year Yield hits 2.95% for the first time in 30 years 🤯 👀

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

The yield on the 30-year Treasury is above 5.3% for the first time since April 2007. At the time the U.S. national debt was still under $8.8 trillion. Now it's over $39.9 trillion, over 4.5x as large. Plus, in 2007 bond yields were still trending down. Now they are trending up.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Slowly and steadily, the 30-year US Treasury yield is heading toward 5.30%, a level the economy -- and the housing market in particular-- has not seen in decades.
(Bloomberg chart below.)
#economy #housing #markets #bonds

[Barchart @Barchart]

U.S. on track to spend $1.7 trillion annually in interest payments if rates remain stable, which would surpass social security as the largest government expenditure 🚨 🚨

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where the bond market is sending an unmistakable message: 30y Bund yields have climbed to 3.73%, the highest level since 2011. Germany is now paying borrowing costs last seen during the euro-crisis era. The age of ultra-cheap money is history.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

$TLT, the 20-year U.S. Treasury ETF, just hit a new low for the year. Trump thinks America is winning, but anyone who invested in Treasuries is losing bigly. TLT is down 6% so far in 2026 and 50% from its 2020 high. Plus, real losses are much greater when adjusted for inflation.

[Steve Hanke @steve_hanke]

Nvidia just partnered with 6 Wall Street giants to raise $500 BILLION for AI buildouts. This is yet another circular financing deal. AI customers, who will be financed in part by Nvidia, will be buying Nvidia chips.

WELCOME TO CIRCULAR FINANCE AND THE AI BUBBLE.

[Bloomberg @business]

SpaceX shares held steady on Thursday as investors digested the release of as many as 911.5 million shares worth about $100 billion from lock-up agreements that had prevented insiders from selling them. https://t.co/KA7Rqwrven

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

MUSK: MY VERY APPROXIMATE GUESS IS THAT TERAFAB AI COMPUTE OUTPUT WOULD BE ABOUT 25% FOR TESLA OPTIMUS AND ABOUT 75% FOR AI SPACECRAFT

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

Important numbers from Terafab announcement:

More than $16.8 billion — first-phase investment from SpaceX and Tesla.

3,000+ new jobs — expected to be created.

$30 million — Texas Enterprise Fund grant.

100 million square feet — planned Terafab size, around 9.3 million square meters.

10 million square feet — size listed for Tesla’s Giga Texas factory.

10× larger — Terafab compared with Giga Texas by the website’s stated floor areas.

More than 1 TW per year — targeted Terafab compute output.

1,000 GW / 1 trillion watts — equivalent to 1 TW.

0.5 TW — current annual U.S. consumption shown for comparison.

2× current U.S. consumption — Terafab’s targeted annual output.

More than 1 TW — projected combined chip demand from SpaceX and Tesla.

1 billion Optimus robots — long-term scale envisioned for robots doing the work.

10 million tons per year — targeted mass launched into orbit.

More than 1 TW of solar power — required for the orbital-compute vision.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Terafab Texas will be the largest and most valuable building on Earth by far.

And it will be stunningly beautiful.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$SPCX fastest-growing business is now AI which is already generating $2.6B while absorbing 86% of quarterly capex as cloud services drive its path toward a $100B annualized December run rate.

That spending is deliberate as SpaceX prebuilds 15–20GW of power for ~10GW of compute and secures $NVDA Vera Rubin supply giving it the infrastructure and chips to pursue $1T in revenue by 2030.

[Nic Cruz Patane @niccruzpatane]

Elon Musk said @SpaceX’s internal projections for reaching a trillion dollars in revenue had moved up from 2031 to 2030, with a non-zero chance it could happen in 2029.

That would require roughly ~78% compound annual growth. Insane. Revenue would basically 10x in ~3.5–4 years.

Bank projections:
Morgan Stanley: $330B by 2030
Goldman Sachs: $474B by 2030

SpaceX will blow those numbers out of the water.

[Tesla Owners Silicon Valley @teslaownersSV]

Markets forecast ~18% outcome of $SPCX & $TSLA merger by EOY 📈