MNData

PLEASE!! Read beyond the headline! The details are there! Here, you’ll find my opinions, use them only to inform yours!

[MNData @mn_data]

@annbauerwriter Shakespeare, Dumas, McCarthy

[MNData @mn_data]

@lendermonk @healthyskeptic_ In fact... I know of at least 5 families with feet in two states right now. One parent working or setting up outside of MN and one here in MN like you said, finishing up what is needed to get out.

[MNData @mn_data]

IRS Migration Data 2011-2021:

Net AGI Impact from Inbound vs. Outbound Minnesota population

Does 5 yrs defines a trend?

[MNData @mn_data]

@lendermonk @healthyskeptic_ And in my neck of the woods, 2023 doesn't look to be slowing down! Many just waiting for their kids to finish HS!!

[MNData @mn_data]

While the trend in both inbound and outbound household AGI is upward, the Outbound AGI has been consistently higher adding to the complexity of the Migration stats. ($11,400 higher on average over these 10 years)

[MNData @mn_data]

@ip_hansen If you dive into the details of the surplus (I'll see if I can track down the link and post it here) much of it was Covid $ from the federal govt. offsetting planned costs and the downstream effects.
Looking to find a good way to present this "flow" in a way that makes sense...

[MNData @mn_data]

Where is the net AGI flow for Minnesota going to and coming from since 2011 by US State over that same time-frame?

This is one metric of many, but certainly one that is concerning.

[MNData @mn_data]

Multiple comments/articles over the past day or so stating that it is the "retirees" that need the focus with respect to Migration in/out of Minnesota.
The 65+ group has the lowest net AND % outbound migration and is 3rd for migration of net AGI... (hint: its the $100k+ earners)

[MNData @mn_data]

IRS Migration Data 2020-2021 - Net Migration Impacts by State: AGI/Households/Individuals

Request was to show a more relative value across the states that the "map" view was lacking due to outliers (e.g. Florida)

[MNData @mn_data]

@scgravel I’ve been watching closely to the bills going through this session and nothing yet. I would guess something like that would hit the news cycle!

[MNData @mn_data]

What is missed too often in these MN to wherever migration talks is that the “news” is typically the NET change in households or individuals.

Don’t stop there!!

2000 out at 100k, and 2000 in at 75k is a ZERO net population impact BUT a loss of $50,000,000 for MN tax base!!

[MNData @mn_data]

@Loonbird1 Working on it… may be a day or two :)

[MNData @mn_data]

IRS Migration to/from Colorado/Minnesota by Colorado County - Adjusted Gross Income Totals

$85,305,000 MN to CO (993 Households)
$51,775,000 CO to MN (642 Households)

$33,530,000 net loss in AGI

[MNData @mn_data]

IRS Migration to/from Florida/Minnesota by Florida County -
Adjusted Gross Income Totals

$511,610,000 MN to FL (2,335 Households)
$73,125,000 FL to MN (642 Households)

$438,435,000 net loss in AGI to MN

[MNData @mn_data]

Another state with a material delta in the flow of AGI for MN is Colorado with a net loss of $33,530,000 in est. taxable AGI

[MNData @mn_data]

Here is the "flow" of reported household AGI from Minnesota to the destination Florida Counties (change from 2020 to 2021)

[MNData @mn_data]

Hennepin County Migration based on IRS Migration Reports 2020-2021

Where are they going?
"Who" is leaving?
Where are they coming from?
"Who" is coming?

The graphics are cool, but the data behind it is telling

[MNData @mn_data]

For Hennepin County, this results in nearly $1.4 B estimated AGI impact for taxable income for 2020 to 2021.

[MNData @mn_data]

I'm just diving into the available data from 2020-2021 IRS Migration Data
Here is the "net change in Households" by county for Minnesota (Hennepin's scale makes the color indicators useless)

[MNData @mn_data]

Net Migration % are low ranging from -2.07% to 2.92% by county.
NET MIGRATION
If 2000 households leave with a 10,000 AGI and 2000 arrive with an 9,000 AGI, it's a net 0 migration, but a -$1,000,000 impact on est. taxable income.