#1 all day. It also explains the failed peace plan that was floated a couple of weeks ago and then tracked back.
It may also be (I am speculating) that Trump blames Netanyahu for all the senators that came out forcefully against the plan. That was the famous plan that he's been talking about for so long.
"A year ago, Israel demonstrated extraordinary military power against Iran and Hezbollah. It had major successes, but it missed the window to turn those achievements into something that would last."
I'm not sure I fully agree with this. Netanyahu may have had an opportunity to achieve victory against Hamas, which he forego as a result prioritizing the hostages. But he never really had an opportunity to fully invade Lebanon like in 1982 and destroy Hezbollah. Hence any lasting achievements in Lebanon are incremental. The creation of a security zone up to the Litani is an incremental achievement and it appears it might be (somewhat) lasting.
The real issue with Lebanon is that Turkey has asserted its red lines and it appears to have substantial influence in the Trump administration.
@JasonMBrodsky He's playacting for the benefit of English audiences, trying to convince them he truly opposes Hezbollah as a tool of Iranian power. The reality is different. He drags his feet and accomplishes nothing of value knowing full well that Hezbollah is his true master.
What we need and what is are two different matters. Trump is an American politician and the price of oil and his electability in the midterms drive his actions. He will not in any circumstances resume the war and he knows the blockade is ineffective for its stated purposes. So his sole concern now is to minimize the political fallout.
@angelo_roberto9@AynReagan Based on shared history the only suitable candidate is India. But India is not currently ready to become and act like a superpower.
This is my take on the current state of the Iran war. The deal we've all been waiting for is already negotiated. Trump sent it out a couple of weeks ago but had to walk it back given how bad it is. However that deal will not change and he will put it forward again when he feels he has a little more credit with the senators that matter. The truth is that Trump has lost the will to fight the war. He will not reengage in kinetic action no matter the circumstances and the blockade is not even close to enough pressure to subjugate the Iranians. The mere idea that the government of Iran, made up entirely of religious fanatics, would suddenly quit based on an oil blockade is ludicrous. This picture also explains this week's anti-israel leaks. What better way to push for a bad deal with Iran than to blame Israel?
I think you should reevaluate your analysis and look at it from another point of view. The deal is already negotiated, Trump sent out feelers a couple of weeks ago but had to withdraw it given the opposition. However that deal will not change and he will put it forward again when he feels he has a little more credit. Trump has lost the war. He will not reengage in kinetic action no matter the circumstances and the blockade is not even close to enough pressure to subjugate the Iranians.
Your buddy Trump, who you really know to be a complete moron, has managed to lose the Iran war. Right now he's managing the defeat and hoping it doesn't hurt him too much in the mid terms. He tried to sell us a disastrous deal a couple of weeks ago but had to walk back given the opposition. He will try again in a couple more weeks.
@DrNeilStone You know what he's doing? He's managing defeat. He knows he lost the Iran war and he's preparing the electorate hoping it doesn't hurt him too much in the mid terms.
@AynReagan The world is changing. Who knows what it will look like in 10 years. Maybe a new superpower will arise that is more comfortable with Israel.
@AynReagan I don't think it will happen. The next decade will be mostly about managing an uncomfortable decline in the relationship. Especially now that Trumpo has snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory with Iran.