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🚨 Xclusive Recap & FREEBIE Action Plan For The Week Of August 26, 2024
Please like, share and comment your thoughts or tickers you'd like to see my opinions on this week for FREEBIES ✍️😉
Recapping Last Week's Predictions:
Dow Jones Industrial Average ( $DJI )
The index touched both the projected targets of 40,752.55 and 40,849.68
NASDAQ 100 ( $NDX )
The index touched all the projected targets of 19,561.24, 19,638.37, and 19,736.22
iShares Russell 2000 ETF ( $IWM )
The price touched both the projected targets of $214.93 and $217.44, with a weekly close of +3.66%
VanEck Semiconductor ETF ( $SMH )
The price touched both the projected targets of $247.68 and $251.31
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. ( $EL )
The stock touched all the projected targets of $96.25,$97.35,$98.39, and $99.47
In the United States, financial markets approached record highs, buoyed by optimism following an announcement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding impending interest rate cuts. This announcement influenced both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index positively, with small-cap stocks outshining large-caps.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI ended the week with +1.27%, the S&P 500 $SPX closed with a gain of 1.45%, while the Nasdaq 100 $NDX and Nasdaq Composite $IXIC ended the week with +1.09% and +1.4%, respectively.
The pivot in market sentiment was largely sparked by Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole economic symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed, where he indicated a policy shift favoring rate reductions in the near future. He hinted at the possibility of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points at the Fed's next meeting in September, as opposed to the standard 25 basis points.
Earlier in the week, the release of the Fed's meeting minutes had already warmed market sentiment, revealing that a significant majority of Fed officials supported a rate cut in September, and a few advocated for a cut as early as July, encouraged by signs of disinflation and a more balanced labor market.
The economic data released throughout the week generally aligned with expectations. S&P Global's preliminary report indicated ongoing expansion in the services sector despite a persistent slump in manufacturing. Additionally, existing home sales experienced a modest uptick, halting four consecutive months of declines.
A significant adjustment was made to the previous year's nonfarm payroll figures, showing 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported—the largest such revision since 2009. This revision had a pronounced effect on the bond markets, where long-term yields decreased, and Treasury bonds saw increased buying.
In Europe, the financial markets saw a positive uptick, with the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index climbing 1.31% amid speculation that both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) might reduce interest rates in the coming month.
Notable increases were also observed in major national indexes:
Germany's DAX rose by 1.70%
France's CAC 40 improved by 1.71%
Italy's FTSE MIB increased by 1.84%
UK’s FTSE 100 modestly grew by 0.20%
Eurozone's business activity experienced a revival in August, driven primarily by the services sector, which surged to a four-month high in response to the Olympic Games held in France. This boost is reflected in the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index, which escalated to 51.2 from 50.2. Despite this positive trend in services, the manufacturing sector continued to struggle, marking its 17th consecutive month of contraction.
In terms of wages, growth in negotiated wages within the Eurozone decelerated to 3.55% in the second quarter from the previous 4.74%, as reported by the ECB. Additionally, the German economy is experiencing a slower-than-anticipated recovery, hindered by diminished foreign demand, according to the Bundesbank’s August report.
On the policy front, significant figures such as Bank of Finland’s Governor Olli Rehn and Bank of Italy’s Governor Fabio Panetta supported a potential rate cut by the ECB in September. This sentiment was echoed by Latvia’s central bank governor, Martins Kazaks, who hinted at the possibility of up to two additional rate cuts before the year ends. Despite holding rates steady in July, the ECB expressed optimism that inflation would realign with their 2% target.
In the UK, business activity showed signs of robust expansion, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index for August posting a score of 53.4, up from 52.8 in July, marking the highest level since April, bolstered by stronger new orders across the private sector.
In Asia, over the past week, Japan's stock markets saw slight improvements, with the Nikkei 225 Index climbing by 0.79% and the broader TOPIX Index increasing by 0.23%. Despite the ongoing market fluctuations, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the central bank's commitment to continue with the normalization of its monetary policy. This stance comes as the BoJ aims for a stable achievement of 2% inflation, which saw support from a third consecutive monthly acceleration in core consumer price inflation, reaching 2.7% year-over-year in July.
The Japanese yen gained strength against the U.S. dollar, moving from approximately JPY 147.6 to the upper JPY 145 range. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond ticked up slightly from 0.88% to 0.90%.
Amidst these economic indicators, Governor Ueda reassured during a parliamentary hearing that the BoJ's policy direction remains unchanged. He acknowledged the stock market's recovery from significant lows but noted ongoing instability and affirmed the central bank's heightened vigilance, especially concerning sharp movements in the yen that could influence inflation forecasts.
The firm stance on monetary policy normalization by the BoJ follows its second interest rate hike this year. Although the broader Japanese economic data, such as GDP growth and consumption, appear healthy, the recent stock market sell-off in early August, triggered by renewed growth concerns in the U.S., reflects the delicate balance the BoJ maintains in its policy decisions. Further, a stronger yen is seen as a boon for domestic consumers as it potentially lowers the costs of imported food and energy, contributing to the broader economic stability.
In China, the stock markets experienced a mixed week. The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 Indexes both recorded declines of 0.87% and 0.55%, respectively, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong saw an uptick of 1.04%. The market's cautious sentiment was largely influenced by the anticipation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole and a relatively light economic calendar.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained its benchmark lending rates, with the one-year loan prime rate held at 3.35% and the five-year loan prime rate, crucial for mortgages and other long-term loans, remaining at 3.85%. This decision aligned with expectations following the PBOC's unexpected rate cuts in July. Economists believe there might be potential for further monetary easing later in the year, contingent on the Federal Reserve’s rate movements in the U.S.
In corporate news, Baidu $BIDU, often referred to as China’s equivalent of Google $GOOGL, reported a slight decline in revenue for the second quarter, down 0.4% year-over-year to RMB 33.9 billion, though its earnings exceeded analysts’ expectations. This mixed financial performance reflects the broader challenges and cautious optimism in the Chinese economic landscape.
The possibility of reduced rates had a particularly positive impact on sectors sensitive to borrowing costs. For instance, shares of Builders FirstSource surged $BLDR by 8.75% on Friday, buoyed by both the rate cut prospects and the company’s strategic financial maneuvers, including aggressive stock buybacks and acquisitions, which have strengthened its balance sheet.
Similarly, cruise line stocks like Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings $NCLH and Carnival Corporation $CCL rose by 7.76% and 7.51%, respectively, on Friday, as lower interest rates could decrease their debt servicing costs and boost consumer spending on travel.
The entertainment sector also saw gains, with Warner Bros $WBD. Discovery's shares increasing by 7.33% on Friday following news of a strategic shift in its cable network operations to focus more on drama-oriented content aimed at a male audience.
Intuit’s $INTU stock plummeted by 6.83% after the company reported an unexpected quarterly loss and disappointing profit projections.
Dow Jones Industrial Average ( $DJI )
The index gained 1.27% last week to close at 41,175.09. The weekly, daily, and hourly RSIs, at 66.5, 63.7, and 64, indicate a strong bullish trend, with support at 41,053.86. Thus, if the price sustains above it, then it could be heading towards 41,221.98 and 41,376.
NASDAQ 100 ( $NDX )
The index gained 1.09% last week to close at 19,720.87. The hourly RSI is 54, with support at 19,634.82. Thus, if the price sustains above it, then it could be heading towards 19,818.40 and 19,938.89.
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF ( $IVV )
The price gained 1.4% last week to close at $565.23. The weekly, daily, and hourly RSIs, at 68.6, 62, and 60, indicate a bullish momentum, with support at $562.56. Thus, if the price sustains above it, then it could be heading towards $568.24 and $570.62
PDD Holdings Inc. ( $PDD ) FREEBIE
Last week, the stock declined 6.31% to close at $139.87.
Support: $138.15
If the price sustains above it, then it could be heading toward
$141.27
$143.50
$145.45
$147.40
SentinelOne, Inc. ( $S ) Continued From Last Week
Last week, the stock gained 9.02% to close at $25.26.
Support at $24.96.
If the price sustains above it, then it could be heading toward
$25.53
$25.97
$26.34
$26.74
Upcoming Economic Calendar for the Week to Keep on Watch:
Monday, Aug 26: Durable-goods orders & Durable-goods minus transportation (July) and San Francisco Fed President Daly TV interview.
Tuesday, Aug 27: S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) (June) and Consumer Confidence (Aug).
Wednesday, Aug 28: Atlanta Fed President Bostic speech.
Thursday, Aug 29: Initial jobless claims (Aug 24), Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods (July), Advanced retail and wholesale inventories (July), GDP (2nd revision) (Q2), Pending home sales (July), and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speech.
Friday, Aug 30: Personal income & Personal spending (nominal), PCE Index (July & YoY), Core PCE index (July & YoY), Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (Aug), and Consumer sentiment (final) (Aug).
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@XclusiveTrading@XSpaces Thank you X, you mentioned it on spaces and asked we keep an eye on NIO, kept it on my watch bought this morning $5.00 strike @ $6 and sold $ 48 each- was 3 ODTE too. 800%..Much appreciated @XclusiveTrading
@XclusiveTrading Cool graphic, we missed @XclusiveTrading it was so awesome to hear you on Jordan spaces calling SPX and Walmart calls. Took 2 SPX, 5040 and I think was 5060 at first..made it out with 100% and was grateful. Can't wait for your series with Banana. Thank for being a blessing🙌
@Banana3Stocks@XclusiveTrading legends(say no more) you both rock! What a combo, made $$ on $CVS( Xclusive) and $CURE ( banana) - listening to both is something to always look forward to. The insights you give, the reasons for the trade, no one else does that. Cheers to 2024@
$NVDA $SPY $QQQ
NVDA - just said - Will be announcing complaint products based on the new regulations soon.
Look, let me explain; any of the chips that China can’t have will be bought up all the same, that exponent remains constant.
What the government did here and the street doesn’t realize yet but will soon, is that they just created another line or sku of products “compliant products” that will also have insane demand.
The Government just created another business that NVDA dominates and the barrier for entry to that business is high, meaning it would be almost impossible for another company to resource money to all these different regulations and products
Govt = as usual is unintended consequences just made NVDA a monopoly