Note: As a side warning, today is OPEX day. While not always the case, these days can be notoriously trappy with poor follow through. Do not overtrade today. Core structure today is the overnight failed breakdown and that will drive all todays price action
Yesterday, #ES_F lost multi-day support at 5630, triggering shorts for Day 2 of Sell The Bounce to 5560s. Overnight, we saw a solid failed breakdown of yesterdays low, recovered.
Plan today: 5585=support. As long as above, relief bounce 5608, 5616, 5630. 85 fails, dip to 5566-68
OPEX Friday underway in #ES_F and as posted, expect a mess today. 5585 was first support down today as posted, and we just tagged it and bounced. Key level and will likely be trap zone today. Must hold to keep 5608, 5616, 5630 live
It fails, we dip further down to 5566-68 again
Precise action in #ES_F and 5585 long played out nicely for ~20 points. This will be a trap pivot today as posted, but remember its OPEX. This means tons of chop. Lock in gains aggressively. *Dont overtrade*
No change. 5608, 5616, 5630 live if ES wants to trend. 5568 under 5585
OPEX day continues in full swing in #ES_F around the 5585 trap pivot. First back-test held nicely for a 20+ point long, then flushed, now back. As posted, today will be mess, *don't overtrade*. I have posted this hourly and will continue.
5585 must reclaim to pop to 5598, 5608+.
After a 20 point bounce off 5585 support in #ES_F, we resume with Day #3 of sell the bounce. 5568 was under 5585 as posted and we dipped there, based a little, then pushed down.
Same drill as last 3 days, we don't rally *until a res reclaims* (5568 now). 5542 next support
Its been 3 days now "sell the bounce" in #ES_F after weeks of dip buying. Remember that sell the bounce begins when major support fails (this week, it was 5668, then 5630 which triggered shorts yesterday). It does not end, until a major, heavily tested res reclaims like 5630
The grind lower continues in #ES_F on this OPEX Friday as we continue Day #3 of "sell the bounce". 5542 was next level down as 11:33AM, and we are arriving here now. Next support level here, with 5568 being resistance now and having to clear to see any recovery.
5519 below here
Very precise technicals in #ES_F. 5542 was next big support down as posted and the target after we lost 5568. We dipped to 5542 to the exact tick, and bounced 18 points
5568 remains resistance now, and bulls need to get over that to avoid another sold bounce/see follow through
Closing update #ES_F: Precise technicals continue. 5542 was support/sell target. We held to the tick & bounced. 5568 was resistance, we sold right there. Sell bounces continues until 68 reclaims. Then, we rally. Newsletter out soon talking Monday triggers https://t.co/PTgRMv3KLQ
Have a great weekend! Largest red week in 3 months. The cause? #ES_F broke down a 2 week base at 5630. Bears control, but relief bounce likely incoming
Next Week: 5542, 5528=supports. As long as 28 lowest holds, we rally 5604, 5630, sell. If 5528 fails, we sell direct 5500, 5474
Lots of headline vol past few weeks; good time to remember that markets trap and hunt for liquidity by design. They flush supports, trap shorts, recover. They break resistances, trap longs, dip. Be patient and trade after the traps, instead of FOMO chasing headfirst into them
Great follow through in #ES_F. Last week, we saw 3 days of sell bounces. This took us to 5542 support, where I was looking for bounce. We held it to the tick, and rallied 40+ points to 5568, 5585 trgt
Plan today: 5568=support. As long as above, 5598, 5604, 5630 next. Dip< 5568
Today (as written in newsletter yesterday/here on Friday), I was looking for a bounce from 5542 to 5585, 5604 in #ES_F. We held 5542 Friday, hit 5585. This is largest relief bounce since selling began last Wed
5604 next if ES wants, good res. 5617, 5630 above. 5566-68 must hold
Ultra precise action in #ES_F. Today's targets as written here/in newsletter were 5585, then 5604 which I said was good res. We spiked to ~5604, then dipped. Level to level profit takes are essential
5581-85 (weak), 5568=supports. Must hold to keep upside targets live. Dip<68
Very clean action today in #ES_F and +62 points from the 5542 Friday long. Plan today was simple; that we run to 5604. We dipped ~there. Protect gains now. If we can accept 5604, a local low may be in
No change. 5581, 5566-68=supports. They keep 5604,5617, 5630 live. Dip<66
Pro traders aren't any better at "predicting" where the market will go than a hobby trader, and its not the job. The difference is all in execution: Finding lvls, protecting profits once available, stopping out & adjusting when wrong, and consistant loss size control. Focus there