My prediction is that AI models are going to plateau soon.
We haven't really created that much useful knowledge in the span of recent years. And training on AI slop leads to worse models.
In fact, due to AI, there's now even less incentive to create that knowledge. Why ask on StackOverflow or request help from a specialist if you can just ask your agent?
AI will continue to get better. Fewer mistakes. Better application for niche problems, so that relevant data is not obfuscated.
But I think it's going to be an era of finding more applications of AI rather than improving models. We already see this with Anthropic and OpenAI trying to go after B2B competitors.
Engineering is changing: FDE is ascendant while mobile and front-end roles are disappearing.
Open mobile and front-end engineers jobs have been nearly halved in the past year!
Being unemployed is difficult.
But there’s another part people rarely talk about.
Watching your friends move forward while you’re still trying to figure out your next step.
You stop asking people for help because you don’t want to become a burden.
You start avoiding certain conversations because everyone seems to have something going on financially.
And even when you smile, you’re quietly worried about tomorrow.
Unemployment affects more than your bank account. It can affect how you see yourself.
designers. claude design is not being removed, deprecated, deleted, whatever ya'll keep saying. It's just moving to the core claude experience under artifacts.
can't tell you how many misleading posts i'm seeing about this.
Starting to roll out today: Claude Whiteboards, Claude Sheets and Claude Data.
Think a plan through on a board, build a tracker in a sheet, and tell a story with your data.
As a Growth specialist, my day to day is:
- Scroll X
- Scroll Reddit
- Scroll Linkedin
- Have fun in Discord
- Watch some Youtube
The job description should have included a requirement:
you are a certified doom scroller. 👽
Love my job
STATE OF THE TECH JOB MARKET IN 2026
Twice a year, I dig into trends in hiring and job openings. This is the fifth report I've done, and the most surprising yet:
1. PMs are winning in the AI era
2. Engineering demand has stalled
3. Design openings are at a record low
4. Every role now requires AI skills
5. Tech jobs are concentrating in the Bay Area
6. Remote roles are at a record low
7. The tech job market is growing fast, but mostly outside of software (gasp!)
Full report here: https://t.co/Gly6uqwKxe
I am bullish on openai, so i am slightly biased
Anthropic COOKED with opus 5.5, such an indredible model
HOWEVER I have to say
Fable 5.2 is a disgrace to themselves
I have been using it for <24h side by side to Astra and Opus 5.5 and in nearly all vectors it's worse than both?
I don't get why they released it
They had such a great lead
Why would you do this to yourself??
if you're curious the kind of creative fraud we see, here are some examples:
1. chinese reseller that farms promo codes for trial access (typically sold in bundles) then bizarrely wraps their authenticated session and proxies it to their own app, where they resell it -- not very successfully -- as their own app. they run outlook email signups on a loop when they exhaust promo or trial limits. we have evidence they're doing this to companies like @linear@cognition@granola@spacexai and @gumloop as well. They sell these through AliPay and their dispatcher loops in a promo code and routes to their "paying" users. they auto rotate through these tools to keep spend under the trial or promo limits.
2. egyptian team building fortnite and roblox maps and slamming our most expensive models in the most inefficient way on trials held w real cards (but cancelled and restarted.) this started subtle and ramped up quickly over 3 days. should have been caught (and less expensive) but we had a prompt caching bug and the monitor had been muted temporarily because of some real business things. super painful one.
3. indonesia - banned the entire country. hundreds of people were using chatprd on trial as a temu chatgpt. luckily the token cost here was low enough but it was annoying so the entire country go the ban hammer.
i am NOT VC funded so i have to eat every single one of these learnings. me, our eng team, and the bots are doing hand to hand on a 15 minute basis to try to catch things while keeping customer privacy and prospect access high.
its a nightmare.
Vulnerable post: I spend 90% of my time on @chatprd dealing with increasingly creative international token fraud operations, and it makes me want to shut down the company. Mostly to steal Opus tokens on resold promo codes or in the time between a trial start + our fraud alerts infra.
It's cost me tens of thousands of dollars and it gets worse every day. Luckily the company is nice and profitable, but every time it happens it bums me out in extreme ways.
I love ChatPRD, I think at this point we've helped PM, engineers, and founders with millions of products + features. We are still a top 3 writing GPT (completely free!) on ChatGPT, we've kept generous trial periods, and have kept annual sub costs super reasonable, even for the enterprise. We've let people use the latest models when they come out, and have built in new features like prototyping without adding to our fees. We haven't had to limit usage, because our customers have been so great.
Building the product is incredibly fun, it's an actual footprint by which I get to test all this AI stuff, as an engineer, founder, and product builder. I have my little grok bot army that runs ops. We've been pen tested multiple times, SOC2ed, and work with some of the biggest companies out there.
It's my labor of love, and I keep it going (even though there are probably higher leverage things I could be doing with my time.)
But it's horrible to have our small team spend basically all of our time shutting down that Indonesian fraud ring, or that Egyptian code farm, or the Chinese signups that have been on an auto loop for the last 24 hours. I feel like I'm constantly making product calls that trade protecting from abuse vs giving our users an amazing experience (and keeping maintenance overhead low.)
It's basically sucked the joy out of my first little AI win, and I'm really sad about it.
And before you bucket me into dumb-little-vibecoder, trust that I know what I'm doing. I run our firewall like it's my full time job. We are stripe radar'd up to the gills. We have rate limits + so many automated triggers and controls.
But each one of these things ends up touching legitimate users and prospects. And every time I rachet up one control, I end up causing annoyance or pain to a real user. It's a trade that's hard to manage.
And honestly? It's not fun.
It just feels bad to see so many bad people.
So I have some thinking to do, but for now
- free trials are dead on chatprd, sorry kids
- i think in 2027 i might ban all non-US business
- and tbh, may retreat to the warm waters of 100% enterprise business, who are a) willing to pay more and b) have more interesting product needs
And if you're a little solo founder or startup that has dealt with this - I see you. I have some tips + tricks that might help. You're not dumb, and it's not easy.
Ok. Rant over.
Back to building the little wrapper who could 💕