moneyball

live in-game predictive alerts. $8/mo all you can alert. come for the data and learn to invest along the way. stop gambling. start trading.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

most people bet on a feeling. a team they like, a hunch, some guy on youtube. we built moneyba11 to show you the price instead. what the sportsbooks say and what kalshi says, side by side, every game. no hype. just the numbers. free account: https://t.co/VMZk7GXE9M

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

✅ Happened — Rays did not score in the 8th.
The card said 1.1x MORE LIKELY THAN NORMAL: 93% (normally 82%).
It has now happened 92% of the time on 191 graded live calls.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

⚾ Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays · Bot 8
2 out, bases empty

1.1x MORE LIKELY THAN NORMAL
This half-inning ends without a run: 93%
Normally: 82% (same inning, score & runners)

Fired live 10:40pm ET. We grade every one.
https://t.co/Vk1t613BFM

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

❌ Didn't happen — Western Kentucky Hilltoppers did not score again before the quarter ended.
The card said 2x MORE LIKELY THAN NORMAL: 74% (normally 37%).
It has now happened 74% of the time on 169 graded live calls.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

🏈 Delaware Blue Hens @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers · Q4 14:54
1st & 10 at own 33

2x MORE LIKELY THAN NORMAL
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to score 3+ this quarter: 74%
Normally: 37% (same quarter, score & field zone)

Fired live 9:28pm ET.
https://t.co/zk2d6TfMrT

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

our board isn't only games. beyond box scores shows kalshi markets on interest rates, inflation and fed decisions. same math, no scoreboard. it's built to be your first step from sports into markets.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

@bcherny I submitted this feedback it’s crucial for me if I am to adopt duet. Thank you

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

economists don't know what the fed will do. they price it. if a 'rates hold' contract sits at 80 cents, the market sees about an 80% chance. your job in sports or rates is the same: decide if that number is too high or too low.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

a good price and a good result are different things. take a 60% shot at a price that treats it like 50% and it's a good decision. it will still lose 4 times out of 10. judge the decision, not the score.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

a rule for any market: same size every time. not bigger when you're hot, not bigger to get back to even. the people who last aren't the best readers. they're the ones who never put too much on one read.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

know your worst case in dollars before you get into anything. a bet, a trade, a fantasy trade. 'what's the most this can cost me?' is the first question serious traders ask. it's also the most skipped.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

a bond pays you back unless the borrower defaults, and its price shows how worried the market is about that. a kalshi contract works the same way: the price is the chance. different asset, same question underneath.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

what's the game situation where you trust your gut most? down 3 with the ball? up big at the half? tell us. we track a lot of them.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

✅ Didn't happen — Indianapolis Colts never got in front.
The card said 1.5x LESS LIKELY THAN NORMAL: 38% (normally 56%).
It has now happened 33% of the time on 21 graded live calls.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

🏈 Colts @ Vikings · Q4 14:01
Vikings lead 13–10 · Colts ball

1.5x LESS LIKELY THAN NORMAL
Colts to take the lead later in this game: 38%
Normally: 56% (same quarter, score & field zone)

Early card: 20 live calls so far.
Fired live 3:12pm ET.
https://t.co/GNUcqumkpf

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

implied chance from a plus price: 100 divided by the price plus 100. +200 is 100 over 300, about 33%. from a minus price: the price divided by the price plus 100. -150 is 150 over 250, so 60%. two lines of math and you can read any board.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

the closing price is the last number before kickoff. it's the market's best guess, with the most information in it. if your numbers keep coming in better than the close, your read is probably real, even in a losing week.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

college saturday. most fans watch the score. try watching the price. when something big happens, the books and kalshi both move, but not always together or by the same amount. that gap is two crowds reacting at different speeds.

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

🏈 No. 2 BYU Cougars @ UCF Knights · Q4 3:25
2nd & Goal at the 1

2.5x MORE LIKELY THAN NORMAL
L. Chambers scores the next touchdown in this game: 30%
Normally: 12% (same quarter, score & field zone)

Fired live 6:44pm ET. We grade every one.
https://t.co/oVSgyWYHML

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

🏈 Boise State Broncos @ Washington State Cougars · Q1 4:18
Boise State Broncos lead 7–0

2x LESS LIKELY THAN NORMAL
Washington State Cougars to take the lead: 27%
Normally: 55% (same quarter, score & field zone)

Fired live 6:33pm ET.
https://t.co/CUe1rdLaNr

[moneyball @moneyballedge]

one of our old signals won 20 and lost 10. it still lost money. the wins paid too little and the losses cost too much. we retired it and left the record up. a win rate without the payout is noise.