Dzmitro Lkmsky

[mon @moninvestor]

This chart is why I'm staying away from the SpaceX IPO.

Five of the most hyped IPOs of the last 15 years, and every single one collapsed after listing.

- UBER lost 70% of its IPO price.
- META crashed 77% from its peak.
- Robin Hood fell 92%.
- Coinbase fell 93%.
- Rivian fell 95%.

The hype is always priced in on day one. The people who bought the hype got crushed.

But look at where the real money was made. At the bottom, when nobody wanted these stocks. Robinhood went up 22x from its low. Meta went up 45x. Uber 7x.

Patience beat hype in every single case and Rivian reminds us that even patience doesn't save every company.

SpaceX will be the most hyped IPO of the decade. History tells me I don't need to be there on day one. If it's a great business, there will be a better price later.

There almost always is.

First they fall.
Then they fly.

[mon @moninvestor]

Someone recreated this chart, removed my name, and shared it as their own without giving credit to the original creator. Their post has gone viral on TikTok.

Thank you to everyone who has properly credited me and to those who have reported the stolen content.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX CLOSES DOWN 3.6% IN WORST SESSION SINCE MARCH.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

NETFLIX Q1 BEATS: REVENUE $12.25 BLN (EST $12.17 BLN), EPS $1.23 (VS $0.66 Y/Y), FCF $5.09 BLN (EST $2.67 BLN); Q2 OUTLOOK MISSES WITH REVENUE SEEN AT $12.57 BLN (EST $12.64 BLN), EPS $0.78 (EST $0.84); MAINTAINS FY REVENUE GUIDANCE $50.7-$51.7 BLN; CO-FOUNDER HASTINGS TO LEAVE BOARD; AD REVENUE ON TRACK FOR $3 BLN IN 2026

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

This is another factor driving the melt-up:

Deutsche Bank has been circulating a chart that they claim shows the typical market impact of "geopolitical events" since 1939.
https://t.co/TRUVPLHH2i

Basically what they are saying is that ALL geopolitical events follow the "average" market path.

Which is statistical data mining bull shit.

The event this oil shock most resembles is the 1974 oil shock caused when OPEC embargoed oil to the U.S. and other countries, for assisting Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur war.

In this chart you will see that the 1974 oil shock led to the worst bear market of the 1970s. Peak to trough the Dow lost -45% of its value:
https://t.co/PgmSm98C10

Too bad it's not 1974. People are A LOT dumber now than they were back then.

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

If I had to be MAXIMUM bullish - and I can say this because I haven't entered my patented "We're fucking doomed" drinking mode - I would say that this year could turn out like the 2022 bear market. Best case scenario. SO FAR, it's tracking 1:1 on the two upper panes.

But then we see that consumer sentiment is already lower than 2022. And it's time for a drink.

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

Think about what's happening right now.

Global markets are rallying because investors think that Trump is a big pussy. And yet at the exact same time Iran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed because THEY also think Trump is a big pussy.

So now, when everyone LEAST expects it, Trump has to prove that he is NOT TACO man.

And that's how this all ends.

Markets exploded by a draft dodger pretending he has sack.

You read it here first. And only.

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

That's the week.

To recap:
Last weekend Trump threatened to obliterate Iranian civilian infrastructure if they didn't capitulate by 8pm on Tuesday. But then ahead of that deadline an "agreement" magically appeared out of nowhere. And Jr. Vance will say with a straight face that the Iranians are playing games.

That fake "agreement" kicked off a gargantuan short covering "gamma squeeze" that lasted the remainder of the week. The only question on the table for bulls is whether or not Trump was front-running the market AGAIN in ANOTHER fake ceasefire.

And how much money did he make from their impending burial?

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

JD Vance is warning Iran "Not to play US" at the weekend negotiations:
https://t.co/59tCY4Rq2b
"If they're going to try to play us, then they're going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive"

I kind of get Trump who represents the mentally imploded geezers playing Rambo, but Vance is a Harvard man boy. He should know better than to fall for this exceptionalism bull shit.

So if he decides to put the big boy pants on now, he will crash global markets.

Because crash risk has NEVER been higher.

Let's get this party started.

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

Today we learned that U.S. consumer sentiment just hit a new all time low.

A system of exploitation only works if you assume everyone else will be exploited. Until the day you find out you are everyone else.

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

This is the biggest seven day gain for Momentum Tech, which is now mostly composed of AI stocks, in 20 years of ETF history.

Bigger than at the pandemic rocket launch lows and bigger than at last April's trade war truce lows.

Hormuz is STILL blocked.

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