Aaron Disnher

Teaching. Trading. TBO. Crypto courses at The Better Traders. Official links below👇

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC is down over 3.5% on Wednesday's daily candle close. Eight green candles in a row was manipulation. We had our pivot high on March 17th - the bear flag has resolved. Next pivot low is likely $65K-$67K. After that, the support break, retest as resistance, and we go lower.

Based on previous drawdowns of 84% and 77%, a 70% drop from $126K lands around $37K-$38,555 - lining up with our artificial supports. Bear markets have lasted 52-54 weeks. We're still a couple of months out.

RSI confirmed the reversal with a lower high at 76.83 versus January's 82.07. BTC wicked into the fast line and risks closing back below the cloud - that flips us from bullish consolidation back to strong bearish.

ETH took a 5% close with RSI reset from 84 Monday to 57 Wednesday. ETHBTC is overbought at resistance - underperformance trade stays on. Stablecoin dominance RSI reset below 23.33 on Monday. Check please.

DXY hit 100.314 and RSI flipped - dollar may be weakening, which should help stocks. The yen is the real danger: second TBO breakout on Wednesday, confirmed bearish divergence. If it keeps weakening, it tanks everything.

VIX back in the rejection zone. S&P, Dow, Nasdaq all still strong bearish. Gold dumped 3% and printed a TBO close long in bearish consolidation - choppy May 2025 replay. Silver has two 4H TBO breakdowns. Copper confirmed a TBO open short.

HYPE, Kaspa, QNT, Fartcoin, River all have TBO breakouts - Kaspa the cleanest setup, up 25%.

BNB, PEPE, Bonk, and Fluid pulled back to the fast line after TBO close shorts Sunday - that's the entry window.

TAO is overbought for day nine with two TBT bearish divergences. Fetch short still open.

Pippin down 75% on the week. Merlin down 12% with a TBO breakdown cluster.

XRP, Solana, Doge, Render, Trump, Syrup, and Zero all have 4H TBO close longs.

Siren up 94% off the springboard bounce. Monero working on a second weekly TBO close long - very bearish.

SoFi showing bullish divergence on the daily. Circle pushed above the 0.5 fib - next target $150.88. Western Digital TBO resistance jumped from $294 to $319 - strong bullish.

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC has now wicked above the same resistance three times in five days, and that keeps weakening the level. I still think the most likely short-term move is a push toward the CME gap at $81,145, but I do not like the risk to reward for longs up here. If my bigger bearish thesis is right, this rally is setting up a much better short later, not a chase long now.

That bigger picture still matters more to me. April has already done the heavy lifting, while the historical setup for May and June still points to deeper downside and much bigger volatility. If that pattern keeps tracking, BTC could still be setting up for a much harder drop over the next two months.

ETH still looks weaker than BTC, BTC dominance keeps pressing higher, and TOTALES is holding up better than the smaller alt indexes. But TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 are both flashing more bearish reversal pressure underneath, so I still think altcoins are vulnerable even if some charts are bouncing for now.

In TradFi, DXY and USDJPY both still look capable of pushing higher, ES finally cooled off after a strong streak, the VIX is trying to turn, and the Nikkei still looks strong but not invincible. On the watchlist, I am paying closest attention to XMR, XLM, CHZ, STRK, H, HYPE, TAO, XRP, RENDER, and SOL.

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC had a green weekend and is now back above TBO resistance around $78.6K and above the daily cloud. That makes the chart technically strong bullish, but I still think this move looks a lot like the 2022 fakeout after a 52% drawdown. The level I am watching next is the CME gap near $81K. If we tag that area and start rolling over, that fits the May and June weakness I have been warning about.

ETH is also back above TBO resistance, but I am still cautious. The daily chart is improving, yet it has not cleared the bigger overhead resistance zone, and volume is not convincing. A small CME gap below current price gives ETH a short-term pullback target, while OBV remains the bigger thing to watch if one red volume candle flips momentum.

BTC dominance remains extremely strong near 60.7%, which means most crypto capital is still flowing into BTC instead of alts. Stablecoin dominance is the other half of the equation. If BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance both rise, that is usually brutal for alts. The best alt environment comes when both BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance fall together, and we are not there yet.

TradFi still looks strange. DXY may have a reporting glitch, but I am watching the 99.516 gap. USDJPY is still too strong, S&P futures confirmed a TBO breakout, and VIX is lower but not low enough to make me comfortable. Oil still has a major upper gap, while gold and silver remain mixed after their recent volatility.

Picks were full of weekend pumps, breakout clusters, and volume warnings. XMR, SKY, AERO, SYRUP, ZBCN, H, PI, ATOM, CHZ, NEAR, POL, TAO, ASTER, ALGO, MORPHO, RENDER, JUP, LDO, and INJ all had something worth watching, but a lot of the strongest moves looked stretched or pump-driven. My main message today is simple: do not chase euphoria. If a chart is extended, take profits into strength and wait for pullbacks to the fast line before adding.

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC just confirmed the bearish divergence I have been waiting for, and for me that changes the whole map. With BTC now joining the TOTALES warning, I am no longer looking at this as a normal pullback. I think the market is setting up for a much deeper move over the next two months, and that is why I am treating any short term bounce as noise unless price can reclaim key levels with real strength.

ETH is starting to crack in the same way. It has not printed the same daily divergence as BTC yet, but the structure is weakening, RSI broke support, and price is losing the fast line. Stablecoin dominance keeps pressing higher, TOTALES has already rolled over, and that combination still points to broad market weakness instead of a healthy reset.

TradFi is not helping the bulls either. DXY looks ready for another push higher, USDJPY is back in the danger zone, and if Japan is forced into another intervention cycle the Nikkei, U.S. equities, and crypto could all get hit together again. At the same time, WTI looks overextended after filling its gap, while gold and silver are still chopping without giving me a strong risk-on signal.

For today’s picks, I am still leaning toward bearish setups over heroic longs. XRP, QNT, ICP, NEAR, TRUMP, DCR, RENDER, ATOM, CHZ, and MORPHO all still look vulnerable if this broader risk-off move keeps building. A few names like DOGE, SKY, and some smaller caps can still bounce, but for me the bigger message today is simple: the warning signs are stacking up, and I would rather stay patient and defensive than fight the trend.

00:00 BTC confirms the bearish divergence
03:03 ETH weakness and stablecoin dominance
05:25 TOTALES breakdown and market-wide risk
06:54 DXY, USDJPY, and Japan intervention risk
13:41 WTI, gold, and silver check-in
20:12 Altcoin picks and short-side setups

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

I think May and June could be brutal for crypto, and in this video I walk through exactly why I still believe BTC could push all the way down to $38,555 before this bear market leg is done. The core of the argument comes from the crypto calendar and how the last real bottom years behaved, especially when you compare monthly closes with the full wick-to-wick volatility inside those candles.

I break down what those historical averages imply for BTC first, then apply the same lens to ETH and the broader market. The important point is not just that monthly closes could be red. It is that the intramonth volatility can get much uglier than the close alone suggests, which is why a move that looks manageable on paper can still feel like a bloodbath in real time.

I also zoom out to TOTALES and the smaller-cap market to show how deep the damage could go if the same kind of bear-market behavior repeats. That is where the opportunity comes in too. If this forecast is even directionally right, the next two months could create some of the best accumulation windows of the cycle, but only for people who stay patient, think probabilistically, and avoid pretending projections are guarantees.

The biggest takeaway is that this is a forecast, not a certainty. July has historically looked stronger, but I do not treat that as proof the full bottom is in. Right now I am using the best historical data we have to map the downside, prepare for volatility, and think ahead instead of reacting after the damage is already done.

Crypto Calendar:
https://t.co/iQ6IXKoKZ0

Chapters:
00:00 Bitcoin to $38,555 by June?
01:48 BTC May and June historical forecast
03:19 Bitcoin volatility and lower wick projections
06:40 June could be even worse for BTC
10:47 Why this data comes from The Better Traders Club
12:34 Ethereum May and June forecast
15:30 ETH volatility and the $1,000 target
20:02 What TOTALES shows about the whole crypto market
23:29 TOTALES May and June downside projections
27:04 TOTALES vs TOTALLY50 vs TOTALLY100 explained
31:39 TOTALLY50 forecast and mid-cap risk
34:51 TOTALLY100 forecast and smaller-cap risk
36:21 Why July could bring a bounce
37:40 These are projections, not guarantees
40:02 How traders should prepare
41:48 Trading volatility and final thoughts

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[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC finally took out the February 6 low at 60K and wicked to 59,130, which was the support target I have been waiting on. The short-term supports are done, the daily chart confirmed another TBO breakdown, and the next levels I care about are TBO support near 53K, then the artificial support target around 49K, with 38,555 still lower if the final liquidation dump gets spicy. ETH dropped 10.58%, printed an extremely low daily RSI, and still has 1,385 and 1,073 as the major downside targets I am watching.

TOTALES confirmed another TBO breakdown and the market still needs more fear, even though the fear is finally getting interesting. Stablecoin dominance is right at the 13% accumulation trigger, but that does not mean ape into everything - it means start thinking in scale-in zones and keep dry powder in case stablecoin dominance rips toward 17%-18%. BTC dominance rising while BTC dumps is constructive for long-term confidence, but OTHERS, OTHERS/BTC, TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 all still look like they want lower. TradFi finally joined the risk-off party too: DXY pushed back toward 100, USDJPY is in trouble, S&P futures dropped 2.9%, the Dow and Nasdaq printed bearish divergence signals, NVDA and TSLA dumped, VIX ripped almost 40%, gold fell 3.29%, silver dropped 8.3%, and uranium gave back the fast-line move.

My picks were mostly a mix of relative strength and caution. HYPE is still technically bullish but risky in this BTC environment, with 39.55 the real support area I care about, DEXE and VVV are still holding up better than most, XRP likely wants the fair value gap near 0.60, SOL is still tracking toward the bigger downside targets, and DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI, SHIB, MNT, DOT, PEPE, AAVE, ETC, WLD, APT, BONK and others are showing breakdown pressure. Viewer picks: FET is one AI chart I still want to watch for future accumulation, TAO lost support, HOME is too hot to trust after the pump, NBIS and OKTA have bearish risk, AAPL is still holding up, PATH had a clean bounce into rejection, and ADBE still looks weak.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 BTC loses 60K and targets 49K
08:55 ETH breakdown, RSI panic and downside targets
13:12 Total market cap, stablecoin dominance and alt dominance
18:24 TradFi risk-off, DXY, USDJPY and indices
23:17 Gold, silver, copper and uranium
25:30 TBO, club, journal and trading mindset
28:21 My picks: HYPE, DEXE and VVV
31:22 Major alt breakdowns: DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI and more
37:25 Viewer picks: FET, TAO, HOME, NBIS, OKTA, AAPL, PATH and ADBE
41:31 HYPE deep dive preview and wrap-up

[Aaron Disnher @monninpapa]

Bitcoin is the lead market signal I'm watching while
BTC tests its current structure, nearby support, and the levels that would confirm either continuation or a deeper reset. I'm focused on price, momentum, and confirmation instead of reacting to one isolated move.

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin is the lead market signal I’m watching while BTC tests its current structure, nearby support, and the levels that would confirm either continuation or a deeper reset. I’m focused on price, momentum, and confirmation instead of reacting to one isolated move.

I’m using Ethereum and the broader altcoin market for context through ETH support, dominance, rotation, and watchlist momentum. I’m treating each setup as a conditional scenario rather than a complete trade plan.

I’m also tracking DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD, S&P Futures, Gold, BNB across the macro, crypto, Club, and YouTube watchlists. I’m keeping every idea tied to the support, resistance, momentum, and confirmation evidence in the charts.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
04:21 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk
11:24 USDJPY Momentum Tests Yen Support
14:46 VIX Signals a Buy-the-Dip Zone Is Approaching
16:49 Gold Tests Historical Resistance as Metals Strengthen
23:50 TBO Breakouts Signal Bullish Continuation
28:52 BNB Pullback to the Fast Line Signals an Entry
31:11 ADA Cardano Fast-Line Bounce Targets Resistance
33:39 FET DCA Dip Levels Lower Break-Even Risk
38:20 Club Picks: Palantir Bearish Consolidation
42:10 Aerodrome and Altcoin Pullback Signals Bounce Risk

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin is the lead market signal I’m watching while BTC tests its current structure, nearby support, and the levels that would confirm either continuation or a deeper reset. I’m focused on price, momentum, and confirmation instead of reacting to one isolated move.

I’m using Ethereum and the broader altcoin market for context through ETH support, dominance, rotation, and watchlist momentum. I’m treating each setup as a conditional scenario rather than a complete trade plan.

I’m also tracking DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD, S&P Futures, Gold, BNB across the macro, crypto, Club, and YouTube watchlists. I’m keeping every idea tied to the support, resistance, momentum, and confirmation evidence in the charts.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
04:21 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk
11:24 USDJPY Momentum Tests Yen Support
14:46 VIX Signals a Buy-the-Dip Zone Is Approaching
16:49 Gold Tests Historical Resistance as Metals Strengthen
23:50 TBO Breakouts Signal Bullish Continuation
28:52 BNB Pullback to the Fast Line Signals an Entry
31:11 ADA Cardano Fast-Line Bounce Targets Resistance
33:39 FET DCA Dip Levels Lower Break-Even Risk
38:20 Club Picks: Palantir Bearish Consolidation
42:10 Aerodrome and Altcoin Pullback Signals Bounce Risk

[Aaron Disnher @monninpapa]

1/BTC has three closes below its first support fan, so that level is broken
I'm watching the 0.786 Fib near $76k as the real test. OBV is falling, but its MA line still looks decent

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

1/ BTC has three closes below its first support fan, so that level is broken

I’m watching the 0.786 Fib near $76k as the real test. OBV is falling, but its MA line still looks decent

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Please never share how big or small your portfolio is online. Ever. I say this too many times, but too many people don't take it seriously enough.

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin dropped 1.5% and cracked the first support fan line, so I’m watching the 0.786 Fib and the new 80,443 TBO resistance pivot. A reclaim would support continuation, but weak pullback volume, lower RSI structure, and four-hour close longs still warn of short-term profit taking while the daily trend remains strong bullish.

Ethereum remains strong bullish despite an on-balance-volume bearish cross. I’m also watching BTC dominance near the cloud bottom, a bearish reversal signal on Solana dominance, and continued alt strength. DXY opened below 98.898 and USDJPY closed below 155.025, which could ease global financial stress if those breaks hold.

My picks are moving, but I’m taking profits into strength. XMR has an RSI divergence and its first on-balance-volume bearish cross in 48 days; INJ jumped 16%, DOT is up 42% since August 18, AERO broke out while overbought, and ICP rallied 9%. In the Club picks, AIOZ closed above short-term resistance, FET has an 0.88 target, and XRP’s 70% move looks mostly like a short squeeze. In the YouTube picks, RENDER confirmed an open long, VELO and ZEN remain strong bullish, ZEC still targets 1,588, and EPIC near 0.75 would be a gift.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Cracks Its First Support Fan Line
04:48 Four-Hour Bitcoin Signals Warn of Profit Taking
07:20 Bitcoin Dominance Nears a Familiar Cloud Bounce Zone
11:40 USDJPY Break Confirms Global Stress Relief
14:56 KOSPI Cloud Reclaim Confirms Bullish Stock Momentum
23:36 Monero RSI Divergence Signals Watchlist Weakness
28:57 AERO Breaks Out While Overbought
33:21 ICP Rally Signals Profit-Taking Risk
42:29 CORN Weakens Toward 1996 Support
49:55 XRP Short Squeeze Exposes Watchlist Risk
57:03 Zcash Bullish Target Defines YouTube Watchlist Upside

[Aaron Disnher @monninpapa]

BC's quiet weekend is helping the crypto rally broaden into alts. Bitcoin remains strong bullish above the fast line, but lower RSI highs and nearby support keep pullback risk alive.

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC’s quiet weekend is helping the crypto rally broaden into alts. Bitcoin remains strong bullish above the fast line, but lower RSI highs and nearby support keep pullback risk alive. ETH held the 0.5 fib, Bitcoin dominance fell, SOL.D and OTHERS.D rose, OTHERS printed a TBO breakout cluster, and TOTALE100 closed above the cloud. I’m taking profits on the way up rather than ignoring the warning signs.

DXY remains strong bearish ahead of the Fed decision, while USDJPY, EURUSD, S&P Futures, NVDA, oil, gold, silver, and PAXGBTC all sit at important levels or conditions. ZEC surged into overbought territory, LINK and several other picks printed breakouts, ASTER escaped a long chop zone, and JUP and ARB extended sharply. I’m avoiding RAY’s wick-to-wick move and staying selective where price is already stretched.

Club and YouTube picks remain mixed. FET confirmed our open long, several stock and crypto charts improved, and KAS, STRK, TAO, HBAR, MU, SEI, NOKIA, and AAVE showed constructive developments. Others, including INJ, BTR, HYPE, ONDO, PEPE, SOUN, USAR, and SUI, still carry meaningful weakness or limited upside. I still think September could close red, so protect profits and take profits before screenshots.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Volume Tests the Momentum Case
03:30 ALTs Gain Momentum Outside the Top 10
07:01 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk
12:07 USDJPY Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
14:58 Gold Price Structure Awaits Confirmation
20:17 Zcash Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk
23:44 OTHERS Market Breadth
31:26 Community Picks Divergence Builds Against Price Momentum
37:42 PEPE Remains Strong Bearish
40:44 YouTube Picks and Market Risk Signals

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin just wrapped a wild August, closing up twenty six percent and wicking to nearly thirty one, a move that echoes what we saw back in January and October twenty twenty three. That said, I want to be straight with you about September. My Better Crypto Calendar nailed June and July but completely missed on August, and while that stings a little, the seasonality data still leans red for September, historically the worst average month for Bitcoin going back to twenty eleven. We're closing in on the end of this bottom year, and once we're through it the calendar points to a much friendlier end of year and a strong start to the next twelve months.

The real opportunity I'm watching right now isn't just Bitcoin, it's Ethereum, Totally50, and Totally100. Bitcoin's fib extension already cleared the 1.272 level and I don't think we're getting anywhere near the twenty thousand percent runs of past cycles since the asset is simply too mature now. Ethereum's story is similar, even a ten thousand dollar target is only a three hundred percent move from here, nothing close to the eighty dollar to four thousand run that staking and NFT euphoria produced. That's why I'm leaning into the low and mid cap side of the market through TOTALE50 and TOTALE100, where alts have historically overcompensated hard once Bitcoin turns, especially heading into a recovery year.

Ninety seven percent of coins never reclaim their all time highs, which is exactly why picking the right names matters more than ever right now. I've been telling club members to buy the dip for weeks, not recklessly, but with the discipline to hold long term positions that can eventually multiply, knowing full well this takes years, not weeks. Yes, we could still see pullbacks and shorts remain valid on extreme pumps, but remember your downside on a short is capped at ninety nine percent while a well chosen long can run into the thousands, so it's time to start pulling your mindset out of bear market mode.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin August Surge Signals September Risk
02:28 Bitcoin Seasonality Signals September Downside Risk
05:57 Altcoin Market Cap Signals Bull-Market Potential
08:41 Crypto Market Cap Excluding Stablecoins Signals Altcoin Breadth
10:52 Altcoins Outpace Bitcoin as Recovery Momentum Builds
13:28 Club Access Signals Market-Tool Support
15:39 Altcoin Bottom-Year Data Signals September Risk
17:50 Altcoin Selection Signals Recovery Potential
20:06 Bear-Market Mindset Threatens Altcoin Recovery
23:37 Long-Term Crypto Positions Shift Bear-Market Mindset

Check out the Better Crypto Calendar here: https://t.co/3NlKcLZyQT

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[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin pulled back about 2% while momentum continued showing bearish divergence against higher price highs. BTC is approaching its short-term support fan, and Ethereum’s resistance moved to 2546, reinforcing that pivot while I continue to expect a pullback. Volume and on-balance volume remain constructive, so I’m watching confirmation rather than treating one red day as a complete trend change.

The bullish signal for ALTs is coming from rotation. Bitcoin dominance declined while OTHERS dominance confirmed overbought, OTHERS printed a TBO breakout, and OTHERS/BTC confirmed a TBO Close Short after earlier bullish divergences. TOTAL50 and TOTAL100 also showed improving momentum, although broader-market bearish RSI resets mean this remains a conditional setup rather than a guarantee.

I also cover DXY, USDJPY, S&P Futures, oil, gold, silver, and today’s crypto and stock picks. Dash, SPX6900, Pendle, Render, EDU, SanDisk, BNB, USELESS, Helium, NEAR, and the rest of the watchlist each have different momentum and risk conditions, so I’m separating strong moves from confirmed setups and waiting for price to validate the next move.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
02:20 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk
04:37 ALTs Gain Momentum Outside the Top 10
07:04 OTHERS Market Breadth
10:03 USDJPY Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
12:27 Gold Price Structure Awaits Confirmation
16:41 SPX Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line
19:00 NEAR Recovery Signals Support a Bounce
21:02 Render and Altcoin Watchlist Risk
25:29 Sandisk Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line
27:38 Sandisk and BNB Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC pumped 5% into TBO resistance at 81,788 and made a new local high at 82,300, but it did not close above resistance or produce a higher high. RSI reached 74.13, so this may be a last push before a pullback. ETH gained 4.83%, while the stablecoin-dominance breakdown and breakouts across TOTALES, TOTALE50, and OTHERS support further alt strength.

DXY dropped about 0.6% and moved below the cloud, helping stocks and BTC. USDJPY fell 1.82%, but I still need a close below 155.025 before treating it as a meaningful breakdown. S&P Futures rose 1%, SPCX made a higher local high, silver is targeting just below 74, and I continue to view stocks as a buy-the-dip market.

ZECUSDT pushed 16% above major fib resistance, while several crypto picks confirmed breakouts, open longs, or springboard bounces. AAPL closed its upper gap, HYPEUSDT broke out on falling volume, and MSTR jumped 17% with BTC. Among the YouTube picks, CLSK still needs to clear resistance, HNTUSDT requires caution after a 300% run, and MAMOUSD looks one-and-done after its 900% day.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 BTC Pumps 5% Into TBO Resistance Without Higher High
03:15 Stablecoin Dominance Breaks Down As Alt Charts Pump
08:04 DXY Weakness Drives Bullish Stocks And BTC
11:02 USDJPY Weekly Close Long Still Needs 155.025 Break
15:24 Silver Bounce Meets Resistance Just Below 74
25:54 Zcash Crypto Push Must Hold Above Fib For 1,588 Upside
31:11 Apple Closes Upper Gap But Still Faces Resistance
35:02 Hyperliquid Crypto Breakout Faces Falling Volume Risk
41:11 MicroStrategy Bitcoin Bounce Signals Bullish Momentum
47:40 YouTube Picks Need Resistance Breaks Before Targets

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin is holding above TBO resistance after dipping to 76,264. I am watching the 786 Fibonacci at 76,706: a daily close below it opens a fast-line test just under 75,000 and a possible short-term oversold bounce. A reclaim could mean more chop toward 80K, but 72,000 at the golden 618 remains the larger downside level. On-balance volume still favors buying the dip, although a confirmed 786 break should bring volatility back.

Ethereum is nearing its 0.5 fib with an early TBT bearish divergence and a fair-value gap near 1,906. Stablecoin dominance is still above TBO support, but its slow line has turned down, supporting a buy-the-dip bias while the macro trend points lower. Others dominance printed a second daily orange diamond. DXY is consolidating in the cloud with a four-hour bearish divergence, USDJPY has returned to strong bearish mode, S&P Futures bounced, and Oil Futures look vulnerable after three overbought days.

Uniswap’s late third TBO breakout has RSI at 86, Arbitrum has a bullish-divergence cluster, and Walrus is deeply oversold with a weekly bullish RSI reset. Lighter is nearing an all-time high on weaker RSI, Zcash may revisit its fast line, and Circle lost spaghetti support while Nvidia and Tesla remain buy-the-dip candidates. In the YouTube picks, TUT is down 18% after a 1,700% run and Pawns is on its twelfth overbought day with RSI near 98.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Tests 786 Fib as 75K Bounce Risk Builds
02:52 Ethereum Nears 0.5 Fib With Bearish Divergence
05:21 Stablecoin Dominance Signals Dip-Buy Risk
07:40 DXY Bearish Divergence Signals USDJPY Pressure
10:19 S&P Futures Bounce Faces Oil-Rollover Risk
15:23 Uniswap TBO Breakout Faces Overbought Risk
23:21 Lighter Nears All-Time High as RSI Weakens
27:44 Circle Support Breaks While Nvidia Holds Dip Support
36:40 Oracle Weekly Cloud Tests 155.76 Resistance
45:47 Aerodrome Squeeze Faces TUT Exhaustion Risk
49:45 Pawns Tests Day 12 Overbought RSI

[Aaron Disnher @monninpapa]

1/ I only upgrade the possible ALT rally if OTHERS closes above TBO Resistance at 200.54B
X
The signs are early, and I'm deliberately not calling this ALT season before that daily close confirms

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

1/ I only upgrade the possible ALT rally if OTHERS closes above TBO Resistance at 200.54B

The signs are early, and I’m deliberately not calling this ALT season before that daily close confirms

[Aaron Disnher @monninpapa]

Bitcoin is the lead market signal I'm watching while
BTC tests its current structure, nearby support, and the levels that would confirm either continuation or a deeper reset. I'm focused on price, momentum, and confirmation instead of reacting to one isolated move.

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin is the lead market signal I’m watching while BTC tests its current structure, nearby support, and the levels that would confirm either continuation or a deeper reset. I’m focused on price, momentum, and confirmation instead of reacting to one isolated move.

I’m using Ethereum and the broader altcoin market for context through ETH support, dominance, rotation, and watchlist momentum. I’m treating each setup as a conditional scenario rather than a complete trade plan.

I’m also tracking DXY, currency pairs, S&P Futures, volatility, and commodities across the later watchlists. I’m keeping every idea tied to the support, resistance, momentum, and confirmation evidence in the charts.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
05:15 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk
07:27 Solana Dominance and Market Rotation
09:55 Tesla Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
13:48 Gold Recovery Signals Support a Bounce
18:46 Zcash and XMR Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
22:34 UNI Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line
25:46 Curve Recovery Signals Support a Bounce
29:14 Amazon Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk
33:05 FET Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk
40:01 PUMP and SOFI Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

BTC chopped sideways all weekend and Friday's pullback never broke the 786 Fibonacci level at 76,706, which is the level I'm watching to hold today. TBO resistance up at 81,788 still hasn't dropped, meaning bulls haven't lost control yet, and the weekly RSI staying overbought after tagging the top of the cloud tells me we're more likely to push higher before we see a real reset. I'm also keeping an eye on the short term support fan on the daily and the coil alert that fired in the Better Traders Club, since both are warning that BTC has to make a decision soon, and any Middle East headlines this weekend could still spook the broader market even if I don't think it knocks Bitcoin off course.

On the macro side, DXY's Friday pump off the Jackson Hole comments printed a bullish divergence, and I'm fine with that as long as it respects resistance near 100.108. USDJPY is sitting right on my short term support around 159.5, and losing that should get yen strength rolling, which is honestly what everyone should want here. S&P Futures stayed boring on the news but the trend based indicators are still exceptionally bullish, and I think 8,000 is an easy multi week target. Gold already closed above its old TBO resistance and pulled back into what I've been calling a buy the dip zone, with silver, platinum and copper all lining up to follow.

Across my picks, XRP, Avalanche and Pump are all setting up springboard bounces off the fast line while Link and Jito are still showing cracks I want to see clear first. In the club and YouTube picks, Helium's 384 percent run and the Fartcoin and Arweave closes are the standout strength, while Circle needs a close above 93.96 to confirm its next leg and Hyperliquid needs to hold 272 before I get excited about a run at 114. I'm still calling this range a dip buying opportunity overall, even with PAXG sitting oversold for eleven straight days, and I'll keep flagging these reentries as they show up.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 BTC Holds Key Fibonacci Support
03:25 Bitcoin Weekly RSI Overbought Keeps Bulls Alive
06:47 Ethereum Bearish Reset Nears Fast Line Support
09:13 Bitcoin Dominance Signals Quiet Dip Accumulation
13:56 S&P Futures Bullish Trend Supports 8000 Target
16:18 Gold Pullback Signals a Commodity Bounce
20:33 XRP Resistance Break Opens Upside
23:57 PUMP and Jupiter Springboard Bounces Test Support
26:52 Altcoin Springboard Bounces Signal Reentry Opportunity
32:05 RSI at 97 Signals Profit Taking Risk
34:53 Altcoin Bottom Signals Raise Reentry Opportunity
37:34 Circle Resistance Break Signals Bullish Upside
41:00 Hyperliquid Resistance Holds Before the Next Target

[Aaron Disnher @monninpapa]

Bitcoin's 26% rebound from roughly $63,000 to above $81,000 is impressive, but I think the more important signal is the collapse in Combined Stablecoin Dominance. Its daily break below support, deeply oversold RSI, and 17.5% weekly decline resemble January 2023 closely enough to

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin's 26% rebound from roughly $63,000 to above $81,000 is impressive, but I think the more important signal is the collapse in Combined Stablecoin Dominance. Its daily break below support, deeply oversold RSI, and 17.5% weekly decline resemble January 2023 closely enough to suggest the market may have found a bottom six to eight weeks earlier than I expected.

I am not treating that as permission to ignore downside risk. BTC is pressing into former support around $82,000 to $82,850, and a rejection there would keep the bear-flag scenario alive. Realized price remains below $53,000, a $50,000 pullback still fits the structure, and $72,000 is the next line I would watch if the market retreats.

I am starting to pivot from reflexively shorting strength toward scaling into high-quality setups, but I still want confirmation and patience. The market is showing real bottoming signals, yet the shallow structure, the risk of a pullback, and the way a small Ethereum move briefly punished alts all argue against reckless dumpster diving.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Bottom Signals Shift The Thesis
03:09 Stablecoin Dominance Confirms 2023 Parallels
06:17 Oversold Signals Strengthen The Bottom Case
09:55 Bitcoin's 26% Rebound Signals Momentum
13:03 Realized Price Still Defines Downside Risk
16:16 Bitcoin Breaks $82,850 To Shift Structure
19:23 Shallow Bottoming Signals Need Confirmation
22:34 Bitcoin Scaling Awaits The Pullback
25:38 Dumpster Diving Still Carries Extreme Risk
28:38 Ethereum Volatility Exposes Altcoin Fragility

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