Montjaro

ex-intraday low cap scalper since 1560

[Montjaro @montjaro]

Longterm Analysis on $BTC

130k is my target for Bitcoin even though a lot of people are calling 200k

2017 and 2021 we had an average increase of 300% from the last top which gives me my target for this cycle

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@CryptoJelleNL Looks to me like an abc correction…

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@SatoshiFlipper Early? We are in an uptrend since Febr. 2023

[apsk32 @apsk32]

Bitcoin bubbles have followed a four-year cycle. I believe these were initially driven by the significant impact that issuance rate step changes had on available supply.

Today, more than 19.8 million of the 21 million total Bitcoin have already been mined. Last cycle, in 2021, many of us believed the four-year pattern would end, but it didn’t. Instead, we saw a double top, with the second peak occurring late in 2021, the post-halving year.

If the four-year cycle were to repeat once more, we would expect it to occur sometime in November or December of this year.

Bitcoin doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It’s now a trillion-dollar asset, and more accessible to traditional markets than ever before.

Given the diminishing impact of Bitcoin halvings and the asset’s growing maturity, I doubt the four-year cycle will repeat without a favorable macro environment.

Fortunately, if the global money supply continues to increase (as it is now) and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rates become less restrictive, I think stocks could close out 2025 with strength.

If that happens, I’d expect Bitcoin to outperform, setting us up for a strong Q4 2025. I still believe that Bitcoin will reach $200k+ later this year.

In the plot, I compare Bitcoin's past cycle prices with 2025 using a power curve fit to scale past prices. I'll drop an animation that explains the scaling in this thread.

I’ve compared 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025 below.

2013, a year of gradual recovery:
Financial conditions were improving but fragile, with low growth, inflation, and rates, a strong stock market, and a recovering but weak labor market.

2017, a peak expansion year:
Conditions were strong, with moderate growth, manageable inflation, rising rates, a bullish stock market, and a healthy labor market—near the peak of the post-recession expansion.

2021, a stimulus-charged rebound:
Financial conditions were exceptionally loose, with high growth, rising inflation, low rates, a booming stock market, and a recovering labor market—a stimulus-driven peak.

2025, a stabilization period:
Conditions are tighter than prior years, with moderate growth, controlled inflation, elevated rates, a volatile stock market, and a stable labor market—a cautious stabilization phase.

S&P500
2013: 29.6%
2017: 19.4%
2021: 26.9%
2025: -4.4% YTD

Federal Funds Rate
2013, October: 0.09
2017, October: 1.3
2021, October: 0.08
2025, January: 4.33

U.S. M2 % Change
2013: 5.5%
2017: 4.8%
2021: 12.6%
2025: 0.06% (January)

U.S. Inflation YoY
2013, October: 1.5%
2017, October: 2.1%
2021, October: 7%
2025, January: 2.8%

U.S. Unemployment Rate
2013, October: 6.7%
2017, October: 4.1%
2021, October: 3.9%
2025, January: 4.1%

Follow @apsk32

[Montjaro @montjaro]

this also means that we could go lower and maybe see BTC at 70k again

[Montjaro @montjaro]

HTF Take : obviously we finished the 3th wave and are now forming a corrective pattern
A lot of noise on x and people calling ridiculous prices also gives me the confidence that we are in fact forming the wave 4 before making new highs and finishing the impulsive pattern
$BTC

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@PackerlFotzn Vielleicht steht die Partei hinter ihren Werten und ändern die Ziele nicht je nach Mainstream Propaganda😉

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@SmokeyHosoda I was sitting the whole time

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@Gotzeuus little hopium, we saw a similar drop in 2021

[Montjaro @montjaro]

Long time no see,
life has been good, BTC at 100k

My best performing asset was actually saulana even tho some alts ripped, have been gradually taking profit but still small % of my portfolio.

For trend continuation, I would like to see the c wave down to 205 before new highs

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@MrJoKeR604 @DonPepitoAndy You are Canadian Broski, nothing will change that, not even your pronouns

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@janoschdahmen @al_baerbock

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@NiklasWenzel_

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@IsarJesus Diese Propaganda habe ich sofort gemeldet und werde es mit jedem deiner Posts machen

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@SuhailKakar So… you’re now for crypto or against?

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@tigerente1982 Versammlungsfreiheit? Behinderung des Verkehrs ist auch eine Straftat

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@rajatsoni Send it! BTC 120k next

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@N_Heisterhagen Wo jetzt der Unterschied zwischen Elon Musk und deutschen Politikern bei den Kenntnissen über Deutschland liegt weiß ich auch nicht

[Montjaro @montjaro]

Good Morning, hope you have a wonderful sunday!🥷

[Montjaro @montjaro]

@FrankfurtZack Die dümmste Werbung Eu-West