Gustavo Viebrantz

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

@maahbtc Acho que o mercado ta com uma expectativa muito alta de cortes pro futuro de uma forma geral, muito difícil o powell com as palavras atender a todas essas expectativas, acredito que se o cpi vir bom, possivelmente uma alta até dia 17, dia 17 realização e depois tem que ver dai 🤣

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

1. 🐰

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

Também tivemos esse caso não tão claro, mas que foram várias barras sucessivas de +10%, com uma de +20%, considerando a compra na máxima da de 10% ainda teríamos uma alta de 79% com um drawdown de 8%

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

O que aconteceu com $Pendle logo após barras de 20%?

Separei 3 casos onde isso ocorreu, se tivéssemos comprado na máxima da barra teríamos ainda conseguido surfar altas de 36.15%/34.92% e 17.07% com drawdowns de 16.23%/9.3% e 5.4%.

Falo mais sobre nos comentários.

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

Embora pareça um clímax, normalmente ainda se sucedem altas a partir dessa barra de 20% como a de hoje. Considerando as % parece que ainda os compradores se saem melhor, mesmo comprando uma barra dessas, obviamente temos uma amostragem de apenas 3 eventos então é apenas um estudo

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

Nessa gráfico de ENA temos alguns suportes fortes, mas considerando a força do ativo não acredito em correções muito longas, a zona de 0.48/0.49 parece ser uma boa zona de compra pra spot/futuros, enquanto uma boa zona de realização seria por volta dos 0.893

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

O fato das alts/ETH estarem mais forte que o btc corrobora com o Russel (small caps americanas) estar mais forte que o SP500 no dia de hoje, com o aumento recente das probabilidades dos cortes de juros ocorrerem o mercado parece estar querendo tomar risco para uma última pernada.

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

BTC.D parece ter feito um topo duplo em uma região forte de troca de polaridade, acredito na queda dessa dominância pras alts.

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

@ocarteironft possivelmente já tenha começado 👀

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

A famosa? 👀

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

@augustogranai Pétroleo caindo forte

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

@lep139 Qual foi a ideia por trás desse segundo mapa da NS?

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

@ericat_lol 🤠

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

👇

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Our thoughts on the market's current situation:

1. Inflation data is moving in the right direction, but is this "good" for the stock market?

2. Both CPI and PPI inflation data, headline and core, fell more than expect in February 2025

3. This was the first major piece of economic data under President Trump's trade war

4. Immediately after this, President Trump posted "egg prices are down, oil is down, interest rates are down," effectively applauding his policy moves

5. As we have seen, the market has had a very MUTED reaction to inflation data that would've previously sent the S&P 500 SHARPLY higher

6. Why is this the case? This data provides President Trump a reason to keep doing what he is currently doing

7. Had inflation rebounded, Trump would face backlash as attention would have shifted to the inflationary nature of tariffs

8. Now, the trade war can carry on while President Trump will claim that he is reducing inflation, rates, and the trade deficit

9. This is exactly why markets are not recovering losses following some of the best inflation data in months

10. Lastly, it's clear that President Trump knows economic weakness, or even a recession, is the fastest "solution" to inflation

It has become increasingly clear that President Trump's trade war is not going to be solved overnight.

Buckle up for more volatility in BOTH directions.

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

Dados do CPI de hoje abaixo do esperado e também um dos menores núcleos anuais pós pandemia, e o mercado entregando queda.

Minha análise é de que podemos cair hoje para pegar os pontos de liquidação/stops dos longs abertos, surgiu em torno de 1.8bi de liquidez na região de 80-82k logo na hora que o dado saiu.

Esse fato ocorreu em 11 de julho de 2024, onde a inflação também veio bem abaixo do esperado e o btc entregou uma queda de 4.6% entre máxima e mínima, provavelmente deve ter surgido muita liquidez na divulgação do dado e o preço foi buscar a região, logo após nos 18 dias subsequentes o btc entregou 22% de alta.

Ponto fraco da tese: preocupação do mercado não ser com estagflação e sim com recessão, ai nem a queda da inflação poderia salvar as quedas no curto prazo, mas de qualquer forma no longo prazo acredito que a economia conseguiria reacelerar sem crashar com os cortes de juros do FED.

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

@DrK1NGG Dropou um md e foi analisar o gráfico 😂

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

$GFM

[DoctorDeFi @DoctorDeFi]

$GFM

pumpfun on sol makes 5M daily with no competition and has 100% share in launchpad on Solana.

@GoFundMemes: pays back 100% of fees to GFM holders/stakers.

it's gonna eat its market dominance slowly but surely.

Overall sentiment is against pumpfun as it is net extractive - all fees is in SOL which is sold daily and goes to one person's bank account. While GFM gives it back to trenches.

Also, memes are like gambling, will stay even in bear market. We wont get big runners but devs will launch and people will ape. won't go to 100m/1B but will go to 10M/25M.

GFM has started getting traction, more than 37% supply staked and 150K in revenue paid back in less than 30 days of its launch.

here is the dashboard for the sake of metrics
https://t.co/2VuPXYchQ8

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

Trump tariffs?

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff, officially known as the Tariff Act of 1930, is a legislative landmark in the United States that had a significant impact on the global economy, especially in relation to the Great Depression, which began in 1929. Here is a detailed analysis:

What was the Smoot-Hawley Tariff?

Initial Goal: The tariff was initially proposed as a protectionist measure to shield American farmers from foreign competition, particularly after agricultural prices fell in the 1920s.
Proposal and Approval: Introduced by Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley, it was passed by the U.S. Congress in 1930, despite criticisms from economists and even President Herbert Hoover himself.

Relation to the 1929 Crisis:

Worsening the Crisis: The tariff significantly raised duties on a wide range of imports, reaching nearly 60% in some cases. This move was seen as one of the factors that exacerbated the Great Depression.
International Retaliation: Other countries responded with their own retaliatory tariffs, leading to a sharp decline in international trade. This cycle of protectionism worsened the global economic crisis.
Trade Reduction: Global trade plummeted, meaning fewer markets for American goods, thereby worsening unemployment and the recession in the U.S.

Economic Impact:
Unemployment: The protection of local industries was not enough to prevent rising unemployment, which reached 25% in the U.S. at the peak of the Depression.
Debt and Bankruptcies: Companies that depended on international trade faced additional difficulties, leading to more bankruptcies and a downward economic spiral.

Historical Conclusion:
Lessons Learned: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff is often cited as a classic example of the dangers of extreme protectionism. The experience laid the groundwork for multilateral trade agreements after World War II, like the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), which later evolved into the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Legacy: The act is remembered as an economic mistake that helped prolong the Great Depression, teaching harsh lessons about the impact of isolationist trade policies in an interconnected global market.

Therefore, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff was not just a response to the 1929 crisis but also a catalyst that worsened the global economic situation, teaching harsh lessons about the impact of protectionism.

👀

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

🧐

[Daniele 🟧 ( Meme Quant ) @danielesesta]

If you're selling AI coins due to @deepseek_ai models being cheap and open source, they are actually very helpful to scale AI Apps to Millions of users with low-entry barrier pricing. Is the best thing that could have happened to the industry.

[Gustavo Viebrantz @MoonLink869]

@franciscozanato Bem demais!