Terrytrade

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@JoshYoung It works when you time headlines like these with trades to provide cover for the suppressing action.

No trader in their right mind could believe that after the night we had an “Iran Pakistan” headline is more material than sunken ships and burning refineries.

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@BowTiedLobster How do we position for that trade?

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@BowTiedLobster For example, when there are inevitable shortages and oil+refined products spike to $300/bbl/$15/gl in US (honestly conservative, I’m in EU rn and diesel is $10/gal), Yen trade unwinds, and AI/debt bubble unwind simultaneously we will have Great Depression 2.0

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@BowTiedLobster I get it I’ve been watching your posts for months really appreciate the content

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@BowTiedLobster Iran knows this and that’s why it has only targeted tankers and military bases - they want to degrade the US presence in the region and slow traffic enough to force others to recognize their control of the flow. If they destroy infrastructure there’s no flow to control

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@BowTiedLobster Lobster - why would Iran want the strait closed indefinitely? Then they make no money. US wants Iran to blow up all gulf oil infrastructure so he can do the same to them and re orient global oil markets around the western hemisphere.

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@PolishQuant @GavMcCracken @HFI_Research If 60% of Hormuz tankers run dark, you can’t claim flows are “half baseline” with confidence unknown cuts bullish AND bearish. And the 255M “draw” was stranded barrels the “backlog flush” is those same barrels arriving. You’re booking both sides of one event.

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@calvinfroedge Friday is Juneteenth markets are closed in US, think deal falls apart before Trump signs away $24 billion cash and $300 billion investment commitment.

If not it falls apart prior to the 60 day period, no way Trump allows Iran to control the strait and Bibi can restrain himself

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@unusual_whales Link the article, not on their website or twitter

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@FirstSquawk Where was this posted it’s not on their website or Twitter

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@DarioCpx What is your $OXY price target? I did some calculations based on Q1 EPS, Q2 guidance, and spot/futures prices thus far in Q2 and arrived at 9.1 P/E ratio (up from 67 in 2025) to end 2026

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

Positions:
- 100x OXY $60c 6/18 (entry $1.14, now $1.78)
- 6x BNO $60c 1/15/27
- 4x BNO $70c 1/15/27

Need OXY at $63.80 by 6/18 for breakeven on Q2 calls (+8.5% in 27 days)

Doing my own barrel counting. What am I missing? Pushback welcome. (6/6) DYOR

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

$OXY thesis @ $58.xx

Forward P/E: 9.1x
Robinhood TTM: 67x

Same stock. Same disclosures. The gap = the trade.

Quick thread on what the model says vs what the screen says. (1/6)

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

The four paths:
1. Toll system deal: Iran ops Hormuz tolls + downblends uranium. Premium retained partially.
2. Status quo blockade: current pricing.
3. Kinetic, Hormuz only: +$25 to Brent
4. Kinetic + Bab al-Mandeb (Houthis): +$55

(5/6)

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

$OXY @ $58.xx
Forward P/E: 9.1x on H1 adj EPS ($1.06 Q1 actual + $2.14 Q2 est) Robinhood TTM: 67x = GAAP noise from Q1's $339M collar MTM

Market sees the 67. Cash earnings say 9.

What am I missing?

[Terrytrade @moontrading98]

@KobeissiLetter @grok what is the source on this? It is not on his X profile