@EmperorBTC Does it matter? As you once said this is a bubble, lets make money out of this bubble. I admire your honesty. Thats a reminder of your words, I appreciate all your knowledge i learned from you, and i’m sure you’ll manage to win big money again, you deserve it!
@EmperorBTC How you use CVD in confluence with other indicators? Your PDF about this subject is good but for me its still hard to see the differences between absorption and exhaustion. Thanks for all your help.
Great traders have normal Accuracy.
What sets them apart is
1. Taking losses early.
2. Cutting trades.
3. Not holding onto Bias.
Take a loss and move on to the next trade.
Getting stuck is poisoning your growth!
Learn to accept being wrong. Accept a loss like a winner.
Open Interest & Liquidations
Open Interest
Open interest (OI) refers to the sum total of all open positions in a contract.
Important: For every buyer there is a seller/for every seller there is a buyer, so OI is always comprised of 50% longs and 50% shorts.
OI increases/decreases based on net open positioning.
When you see price up + OI up you might infer that "there are more longs than shorts", but technically the ratio is always 50/50 (a buyer for every seller/vice versa).
The more appropriate inference is that buyers are more aggressive than sellers and market participants are increasing their net positioning - and even that comes with caveats and nuances.
When OI increases, we can infer that on net balance, market participants are increasing their positioning.
When OI decreases, we can infer that on net balance, market participants are decreasing their net positioning.
From a trading perspective, it's usually best to view OI in the context of some of the other tools we'll discuss in order to have a better idea of what type of participation is responsible for the OI increase/decrease.
Some general, back of napkin places to look for ideas:
i) Large OI increases through a breakout level
ii) Large OI increases X days/weeks ahead of [news/event]
iii) Large OI increases into key S/R
iv) Large OI decreases on dumps into support/pumps into resistance
v) Divergences: Large increases in OI after impulsive price move without any follow through in price
vi) Daily outlier increases/decreases in OI (more for trading watchlists)
Liquidations
Liquidations occur when the trading venue forcibly closes your position when you fall below the required maintenance margin for your position(s).
With the preceding OI context, we can infer that liquidations typically - but not always - reduce OI as closing trades decreases net positioning in a contract.
There are obvious exceptions to this, in particular instances where a lot of OI is added on a breakout/breakdown which pushes the other side of the market offside - e.g. OI increase in breakout candle + additional OI increase from breakout traders chasing > OI decrease from shorts getting liquidated.
Liquidations are typically mean-reverting, but they can also be trend-forming.
Liquidations are messy, especially if they happen en masse or in a cascading fashion.
Specifically, they form dislocations in the market by creating a flurry of market orders (and/or aggressive top of book limit orders) around the same price, and by extension, around the same time.
This one-sided demand for liquidity will push price however high/low it needs to go through the order book until those orders are filled - priority is in execution, not pricing.
This creates inefficiencies - the liquidated participants didn't voluntarily buy/sell at those prices, but they have no choice - the orders are executed at whatever prices can fill them, even if it means 'skipping' large chunks of the book.
As a result, savvier traders sensing this can voluntarily provide liquidity at prices where they wouldn't ordinarily get filled, simply because their counterparties don't have the luxury of choice.
This results in good prices for those providing the liquidity to forced traders, and bad prices for the forced traders (they don't have a say in the matter per se).
In essence, this is where the milquetoast version of 'scalping liqs' comes from as a setup: liquidations = forced traders, forced traders = price insensitive/trade at bad prices, bad prices for them = good prices for you as their counterparty.
It is worth noting that liquidations can, however, be trend-forming.
Same logic, but without the mean-reverting properties.
For example, in a rangebound market you'll have participants running [assortment of mean-reverting/buy high, sell low meme strategies] operating on the assumption that the market will remain within some general boundaries.
As the market starts to break out, those sellers will quite frequently have overlapping invalidations (via stop market orders or instructions to rebalance more broadly).
If the break is fast and forceful enough, those mean-reverting systems generate 'GTFO' signals around the same price and time.
Shorts that close aggressively become (market/top of book limit) orders to buy + breakout traders piling in = significant price dislocation.
In crypto you also get some weird nuances where post-breakout stubborn sellers will step in and get run over continuously/post-breakdown stubborn buyers will step in and get run over continuously, but perhaps that's a post for another day.
From a trading perspective, combining OI + liquidations can highlight inefficiencies and areas of present or future dislocation:
i) Large OI decreases + long liquidations on dumps into support
ii) Large OI decreases + short liquidations on rallies into resistance
iii) Large OI increases + short liquidations on breakouts
iv) Large OI increases + long liquidations on breakdowns
There are also nuanced cases of 'stubborn OI' where chunks of freshly-added OI (presumed to be more directional than not) are offsides and are insensitive to that in the short-term but end up puking at the same time once the first chunk of OI is lifted - kind of like a game of chicken.
Again, perhaps for another post on another day.
I appreciate this isn't my usual format and is less structured & detailed than my other stuff, but hope it's a decent introduction.
Let me know if you want a part 2 on CVD + funding.
Thanks.
I’ve traded $1000 to $600,000 in less than 2 years without an investor approach, one question I get asked often is; where should a beginner start?
In this thread I’ll list some major references from start to finish which I’ve mastered functional for the current market standards🧵
If your Stop Loss keeps getting hit ❌
You MUST read this.
I know you’ll understand what I’m about to say:
We have all been in this situation where,
You don't want to FOMO in on a coin that's up 40%.
So you wait for your entry level.
After patiently waiting for a pullback,
Price retraces into your buy zone and your buy orders get filled.
You are glad you managed to get in on this action.
You start calculating take profits,
And as a good trader you also set your stop loss in case you could be wrong.
You then leave the charts.
You come back to see what happened,
And you see Price has moved EXACTLY the way you expected,
Only to realise,
That your stop loss has been triggered and you missed the entire move.
- How do I know the feeling so well?
Because trading is simple, not easy.
Everyone goes through the same emotions and journey,
But in the end only the tough survive and win.
People believe this happens because banks intentionally drive price higher/lower to tap retail stop losses,
Before pushing price in the opposite direction.
I don't.
Why?
Because this can easily be overcome.
- So how do i overcome this?
It’s simple.
If your SL keeps getting hit then price reverses,
Then that's usually an indication that your Stop Loss is too tight.
What you can do to give yourself that free leeway is reduce your position size and increase your stop loss,
This will take into consideration any fake outs or quick wicks.
- What else?
It’s also very possible you are entering a little too early.
You want to enter where other peoples place their stop loss.
You can also utilise market structure breaks on a smaller time frame,
to help you have a more precise idea of when it's making it's real move.
- Try this next time,
When you place a trade, trade half your usual size,
Then add on the remaining half at your usual stop loss.
Put a wider stop and set your target as per usual.
That should do the trick.
If you learned anything from this just like this tweet.
I want to help as many people this #Bitcoin bull run.
And stop them from making stupid mistakes.
PRICE ACTION EXERCISE 🔥
1. Look for New range formations.
2. Identify the range.
3. Identify Sweep of levels for Long/Short.
4. Identify Rejection from Daily levels.
5. Establish MSB in confluence with Fib or Other Levels.
6. Practice this all day and Observe the PA.
Thread of 9 Worst Mistakes I made before 2018.
As someone who lost 90% of Networth in 2018, Stuck around to make it all back, These are my Tips.
P. S. Don't trust anything you read on the internet. Experience and Verify.