cr4

RT not endorsement

[cr4 @morecrk]

@newsguyusa I have a very nice bridge to sell, you seem to be the perfect guy to buy it. Let’s talk

[Shin @hey_itsmyturn]

AA activity over Khorzuq Borkhar, Isfahan Province, #Iran

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

MORE: Iranian reports say explosions and air defense activity are being heard in the cities of Kermanshah and Isfahan.

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

A local source in Bandar Abbas, Iran tells Faytuks Network that there have been 2 rounds of distant explosions in the last hours.

[Zlatti71 @Zlatti_71]

💥 A strike has been delivered to the outskirts of Sum

[Shin @hey_itsmyturn]

State-owned Mehr:

"Explosion was from Eastern Bandar Abbas."
"Citizens reported AA activity in the city"
"Everything is under control, no need to panic"
"No statements by officials as of now"

Hormozgan Province, #Iran

[Mohamad Ahwaze @MohamadAhwaze]

عاجل: مصادر إيرانية تتحدث عن قصف زوارق سريعة تابعة للحرس الثوري جنوبي إيران

[ILRedAlert @ILRedAlert]

Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency said the situation in Bandar Abbas is “completely normal” following reports of multiple explosions heard in the city, stating that the source was in the eastern outskirts.

[ایران اینترنشنال - خبر فوری @IranIntlbrk]

سایت تابناک نوشت باند پروازی فرودگاه بندرعباس مورد اصابت موشک قرار گرفت

[cr4 @morecrk]

@GavMcCracken

[Mohamad Ahwaze @MohamadAhwaze]

عاجل / مؤكد: استهداف مطار بندر عباس بقصف صاروخي

[Don Johnson @DonMiami3]

Airstrikes as soon as oil markets close, isn’t it magical ?

The ‘theater’ of war is taking a new meaning

[Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @AdamKinzinger]

The deal is 95 percent there, only thing remaining is the nuclear material, Irans control of the strait, the regime, missiles, drones, and proxy forces.

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Trump: No one knows contents of potential Iran agreement, critics talking 'about something they know nothing about'

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/rl9Xo8lSUO

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

Alright let’s say things as they are objectively shall we?

Trump currently only has 2 choices:

- Diplomatic defeat (a deal worse than JCPOA)

- Roll the military dices a 2nd time aiming for a more favourable outcome that rebalances the weights at the negotiating table with Iran

Iran has the benefit of time:

- the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, the higher the gasoline prices are set to rise in the US hence undermining the strong domestic support Trump still has

- the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, the greater the oil supply shock will be felt by US allies that will then increase the pressure on him to agree on a deal

So far the oil supply shock worldwide has been buffered thanks to the US doubling its exports of oil significantly reducing commercial and strategic inventories. However tank bottoms will take this buffer away sooner than what most of the people are realising.

Trump cannot shut exports and keep the oil production of the US only for its domestic market because the US doesn’t produce heavy crude, shutting exports of light crude will surely trigger allies retaliatory measures ultimately creating a massive chaos for all refinery across the globe that need a blend of light and heavy crude to produce all oil products ultimately distributed.

Bottom line: while traders continue overestimating the odds of a peace deal, the exact opposite is happening the longer the standoff between the US and Iran.

[בני גנץ - Benny Gantz @gantzbe]

אסור בשום פנים ואופן לקבל את הפסקת הלחימה בלבנון כחלק מהסכם עם איראן. אי אפשר לקבל מצב שבו דווקא כשהציבור הלבנוני מתחיל להפנים שחיזבאללה פוגע בו - מדינת ישראל תאפשר להפוך אותו למגן לבנון.
הכפרים בדרום לבנון שוכנים מאות מטרים ממטולה, משלומי וממשגב עם - ולישראל יש חובה להגן על תושביה ללא תלות באף גורם חיצוני.
השלמה עם הפסקת הלחימה בלבנון כחלק מהסכם עם איראן תהיה טעות אסטרטגית שנשלם עליה שנים קדימה.
זה בדיוק המקרה שבו ישראל צריכה להגיד לארה״ב - לא.

[خبرگزاری فارس @FarsNews_Agency]

🔴احتمال دبۀ آمریکا در یکی از بندهای توافق اولیه؛ ایران بر مواضع خود ایستاده است
۱/۵

[ایران اینترنشنال - خبر فوری @IranIntlbrk]

وزیر خارجه آمریکا گفت که در مذاکرات با جمهوری اسلامی پیشرفت قابل توجهی حاصل شده اما پیشرفت نهایی حاصل نشده است

[الجزيرة - عاجل @AJABreaking]

عاجل | وكالة فارس عن مصدر مقرب من فريق #إيران المفاوض: 3 نقاط خلافية رئيسية قائمة وإذا لم تحل فلن تجرى المفاوضات