MorpheusX

Finance, Trading, Fitness, Intersexual dynamics, Orange and Red Pilled

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

Just completed 3 month muscle gain / diet break phase and starting 12 week cutting phase. 6'3", 224 pounds, 48 years old

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@dampedspring If I buy deep ITM IBIT calls, there is some time value to pay plus the roll cost every 12 months or so. I'm just not sure it's so easy to replicate their leverage to BTC. How exactly would you structure this?

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@dampedspring FWIW, my Charles Schwab margin interest rate is almost identical to STRC dividend rate. And I still have the tail risk of getting liquidated if BTC happens to have a vicious wick down from here if my "amplification" is too high

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@realroseceline One simply has to realize it's an opportunity to sell into strength and ephemeral gains and reallocate that capital elsewhere.

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@gregoryblotnick Stop losses and where exactly to place them is something I've deliberated extensively especially when I emphatically believe in the fundamental thesis and valuation. This part resonates deeply.

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@gregoryblotnick The great dichotomy is that both of these are true depending on the situation

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@TihoBrkan The two biggest are underreactions when a business actually undergoes a massive inflection point that takes a long time to actually get priced in, and overreactions to temporary items that don't really change the LT business trajectory and value. The skill is in discernment.

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@MercurialDad @KobeissiLetter I'll take you at your word. Your 11/28 post read like you were selling so I'm surprised you sold a tranche at 100. Sounded like you thought that was impossible. In any case Jordi Visser just mentioned silver is a 10x from here. Deflationary hibernation is highly unlikely.

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@MercurialDad @KobeissiLetter We aren't going to see sub 50. You sold the last run way too early based on your 11/28 post. We actually ran to 120 so even exceeded my target of 100. Current no brainer buy is 55-60 although I think we may not even see sub 60

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

the SAC 1992-1999 run, I don't think anyone's ever beating these #'s...all pre-charge yrs (1999-2010)

launched in '92 with $25M, then a 45% net CAGR for 7 years...WITH a 50% perf fee.

a 90% gross CAGR over 7 years, turns $1M into $89M

...with only 3 down months + 2% max draw 🐐

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

PTJ intvw in Market Wizards -- the density of wisdom in these old interviews is astonishing

Like, every single sentence is a banger

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@gregoryblotnick IME, many stocks experience these temporary "dislocations" where the stock price diverges from reasonable value estimates to either the upside or downside based on ultimately prove to be ephemeral factors.

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@gregoryblotnick One price reflected peak euphoria and exuberance over near term results while the other price reflected peak fear and panic over a lawsuit that was dropped only a few weeks later. The savvy analyst would have recognized the lawsuit was unlikely to amount to anything material.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

I think optics would be to the upside.

-If they maintain an average 30 month dividend USD reserve (at the midpoint of their previously-guided 24-36 year range), then spending 3-6 months of the reserve to buy STRC during a 10%+ liquidation event would be accretive. Maintaining a USD reserve is dilutive as a baseline, but it builds confidence and resilience, and it can be accretive if it is built during good times and (partially) deployed during rough times. And how good would MSTR and STRC investors feel on days like today if there was a 24-36 month USD reserve as previously guided vs a 7 month one? It gives more optionality for these days.

-Monitoring the space for leverage and products built on top of STRC (which is not easy since part of it is opaque) may help management determine certain variables like how big of a reserve to have, how likely the risk of some sort of liquidation event seems to be, what their intended response would be, etc. And understanding how much leverage does exist or could exist on STRC can also help when it comes to management communicating about STRC's expected volatility. If you've got a big reserve and assess there to be minimal leverage on STRC, then there's a lot of firepower relative to the risk surface to keep it semi-stable. If you've got a small reserve at a time when leverage is building up on STRC, then the risk of a confidence-harming volatility event rises.

It's why I paired both questions together:
https://t.co/Q8iW1xouI6

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@TaviCosta 🎯🎯🎯💯💯💯

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️You need to be okay with rejection and failure to the point that your desire for the life you want is stronger than your desire to protect your self-image.

That is the threshold.

Most people never cross it. They choose dignity theater over conquest. They would rather feel unexposed than become powerful.

The ones who get the most out of life are willing to bleed socially, emotionally, financially, and reputationally in controlled ways until reality gives them the opening.

That is the price.

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@gregoryblotnick 🫡👊

[MorpheusX @morpheus7447x]

@Z06Z07 @saylor 🎯💯... Hopefully someone is listening.