Morpho Advisory

Portfolio Mgmt * Macro-Quant Research * Unique insight into Market & Risk morphology * Uncorrelated alpha * Uncorrelated investment strategies * Not advice

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

WEIRDO CALLS FOR 68% FALL IN STOCKS!
S&P 500 targeting 1,540-ish (that's -65% from current levels)

Go on, you know you want to find out ... (click the link, I dare you)

#recession #stocks #finance #stockmarket $SPX #SP500 #economy #economics
https://t.co/z6KyTpAsLe

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

@IanRHarnett @johnauthers @asr_london *cashed

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

@IanRHarnett @johnauthers @asr_london The equity revaluation impact on household's net worth also alters corporate gearing, and historically doesn't bode well for future returns. No wonder Berkshire is all cased up.

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

@PeterBerezinBCA This is post-GFC banking capital adequecy regulation on display. Risk-weight capital demands a high cost of capital for unsecured consumer lending, so profitability needs to increase otherwise no bank would offer credit cards, they'd apply their capital elsewhere. #incentives

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

NEURODIVERGENT
Differing from neurotypical analysis by way of actually thinking

Where are all the long-serving pros & global investment strategists & Wall St analysts when the AI stock mkt rah-rah is being pumped out? Don't give us stories, give us data!

https://t.co/sIXd50zdet

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

QUANTIMENTAL
I dabble in both of the dark arts (fundamentals and quantitative)

In this issue:
• Algo efficacy and stochastic process as a lens for interpretation
• Who might be in for a 120% drawdown, a 60% drawdown, and who might fall less?

https://t.co/yxWH6ESR81

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

People saw #Bitcoin as a currency, but that didn't happen, so then it became a store of value via #hodling

I think #BTC is just another vehicle for speculation & really only serves in terms of usefulness as a barometer for risk appetite.

It's giving another early warning signal

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

*broader🤭🙄😄

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

Ladies & Gentlemen, I give you the Saylor Cupidity Index, a measure of market sentiment & willingness to speculate as revealed by schemer activity leveraging cupidity via their latest get-rich-quick idea that provides a thrilling ride but ultimately comes to nothing (if not less)

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

Here's an update on the Saylor Cupidity Index, which measures widespread speculative willingness by any & all means possible.
The recent sharp move lower does not bode well, historically speaking, for broarder market performance.

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

MAD WORLD
A Markov process of unusual events.

A bunch of modern day Cassandras are ignored by those who are fixated on market price.

How extreme is the current environment & the madness that has beset our world?

It is a world without consequences.

https://t.co/BRq2WLXg7I

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

INDIAN SUMMER
Repeating cycles but with some of that 'spicy life' variation

Markets are no different to planetary seasons. They are subject to cycles, but to paraphrase George Orwell, “some cycles are more equal than others”.

https://t.co/m6KTh4yyGN

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

REPS
Four sets of fifty .... and counting

It seems that there is a pretty clear pattern emerging across some significant sectors in the U.S. economy.

https://t.co/pKQsG6dkgX

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

This is fine

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

It's eclipse season, people.

You're curious, I know ....

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

ECLIPSED BY SOCIETY
Unifying theories and layers of contextualization

How might the subset of human engagement in the realm of economics be influenced by the celestial framework in which we find ourselves?

https://t.co/YoUbnCFjai

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

FOLLOW THE MONEY
Tariffs are the biggest protection racket

Politicians say they're acting to protect local industry. But truth & politics are unlikely bedfellows.

Tariffs are simply a tax grab. It's the government looking after itself.

https://t.co/O0ZIr6g3oe

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

Got this from X (artist formerly known as Twitter).

In early days, there was sharing & exchange of ideas. Now it's just a few large "channels" b/c ppl follow who ppl follow. Social media is dead

Do you remember when you joined X? I do, & I remember when it died #MyXAnniversary

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

@DiMartinoBooth This is because buyers are indifferent, they're gonna get hit with a 6.5% mortgage either way, but sellers are still hiding behind their 3% fixed rate and can't afford to give that up. They're trapped and can't sell without taking a big hit on their disposable income.

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

@MauiBoyMacro Yes, what they really mean by "cash on the sidelines" is "FOMO on the sidelines that is more desperate to get in on the action than those sellers they will buy stocks from"

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

If you haven't developed your own process of researching economic information & have just relied on federal institutions & financial media, it's probably too late for you.

The old data was flawed, but greater obfiscation has now arrived.

Narrative has officially displaced data.

[Morpho Advisory @morphoadvisory]

If you haven't developed your own process of researching economic information & have just relied on federal institutions & financial media, it's probably too late for you.

The old data was flawed, but greater obfiscation has now arrived.

Narrative has officially displaced data.