Mosoj ESG

Economic and business intelligence platform. Bridging the information gap for ESG investors in South America.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Brazil is haunted by the growth collapse after 2014. Most of that was due to the sharp fall in oil prices due to US shale (blue). Oil prices are much higher now, which means Brazil will boom. All that's needed is a peaceful, orderly transition of power and Brazil will boom...

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Global recession is coming. New export orders for Germany (blue) - a key export engine of the global economy - have fallen off a cliff. This isn't about Germany, but about weak global demand across Europe and China, which is weighing on German exports. Others aren't far behind...

[Juan Carlos Zuleta @jczuleta]

The Chinese Dialogue, a website related to #China, published a few weeks ago the following report, now republished by the Opinion, in which I'm quoted clarifying some technical points in relation to the recent #DLE international call in #Bolivia: https://t.co/2A4gfYQ2xx.
#lithium

[Mosoj ESG @MosojESG]

@jczuleta @DialogoChinoEN is not related to China. It is a London headquartered platform dedicated to understanding China - Latin America’s relationship.

[Milko Schvartzman @milkorockmar]

La flota de pesca de calamar de China en el pacífico Sur se encuentra a 35 nm del borde de la ZEE de las Islas Galápagos (Ecuador).
Aproximadamente 300 embarcaciones, incluyendo Reefers en su mayoría de bandera panameña.
#pesca #INDNR #China #Galápagos

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

Great chart from Deutsche Bank earlier this week showing that, for the first time in at least 70 years, the Fed's tightening cycle is not expected to lift real US interest rates into positive territory.

[María Luisa Paúl @marialuisapaulr]

In #Venezuela the specter of espionage has loomed so large that for years it has felt like a 3rd person had eyes & ears on every conversations.

Those long-held suspicions were substantiated in a report by telecommunications giant Telefónica. Here’s a 🧵: https://t.co/V509wsvY5D

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Not so long ago, Latin America’s future looked bright. No longer. Its vicious circle is a warning to the West https://t.co/na7L36ocAI

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

The U.S. bond market delivers a Fed rate hike in a single day - the 2-year yield jumps 25 bps, the biggest one-day rise since June 2009.

[Ana Ionova @ana_ionova]

Dom Phillips and Bruno Pereira vanished in Brazil's Amazon while investigating invasions of Indigenous lands. Just before, they were threatened by people illegally exploiting the reserve. Story in @nytimes with @jacknicas @andrespigariol @leocoelho_jor https://t.co/Q5R7aa7ePn

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Small businesses crushed

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Welcome to global recession. China data are nose-diving, in manufacturing (lhs, blue) & services (rhs, blue). The Euro zone is still in denial, but German data are rolling over hard & recession is coming. We forecast only 1% Euro zone growth in 2022, which is a recession call...

[Boston University Global Development Policy Center @GDP_Center]

📍 For the 2nd year in a row, the China-Latin America Finance Database, jointly managed with @The_Dialogue, found no new loans from Chinese policy banks to LAC governments in 2021.

Explore the data: https://t.co/diBkZH3m3z

[Lithium Triangle Initiative (LTI) @LiTriangle]

Argosy Minerals has reported operational progress at its Rincon lithium project in Argentina, with 67% of work now finished. The firm is on track to start the first production of >99.5% battery quality lithium carbonate product in mid-2022. Via @kalkineau
https://t.co/Iyj0zvXtoP

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

The US 2s/10s spread is now <2 bps from inversion, which has preceded all 6 recessions since the mid-70s.
But a recent Fed paper downplays the link. It says "... the perceived omniscience of the 2-10 spread that pervades market commentary is probably spurious."

[Simon Moores @sdmoores]

$500bn investment has been outlined just to build lithium ion battery capacity for #ElectricVehicles to date

This capital is at various stages of commitment but it shows you scale of challenge

I expect $1T will be needed for new capacity for the #EnergyTransition @benchmarkmin

[Steph Smith @stephsmithio]

💡 Get this: the fastest growing 10-yo company isn't in software. It's a lithium-ion battery company: CATL.

Like semiconductors, batteries are a fundamental layer to many other technologies.

And yep, you guessed it: prices have decreased exponentially.

https://t.co/H9dtaIT2jC

[Martin Castellano @mcastellano44]

Brazil’s exports are highly dependent on three commodities: iron ore, soybean, and oil. These accounted for almost half of total exports last year. The broad-based commodity price surge due to the war widely improves the current account, which should further support the BRL.

[Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie]

Good graphic of global GDP downgrades and inflation upgrades from Barclays.

Euro zone most exposed to Russia-Ukraine:
2022 growth forecast cut to 2.4% vs 4.1%, and 2023 outlook cut to 2.1% vs 2.9%.

2022 inflation outlook raised 1.9pp to 5.6%, and 0.5pp to 2.0% next year.

[Martin Castellano @mcastellano44]

What is the impact of rising energy prices on external accounts in major LatAm countries?

(+) Colombia→ biggest winner.

(+) Brazil→ moderate gains.

(-) Peru→ mild losses.

(-) Mexico & Argentina→ net energy importers since long ago.

(-) Chile → largest adverse effect.