Jason Moss

Hi I'm Jason Moss from Moss Intel and I run the Daily Moss Report, a pre-market morning global macro briefing. Ex GS, Macquarie (ags), Bank of America (fx).

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

US Gross Federal Debt per S&P500 point (GFDEBTN divided by SP500 index). This is how you inflate your way out of it. #federalreserve

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

* OIL SELLOFF DEEPENS. WTI fell 2.35% Monday, and crude futures are down another roughly 3.6% pre-market.
* NVIDIA EARNINGS RISK HITS NASDAQ. Nasdaq fell 0.76% as traders focused on Nvidia’s Rubin transition, AI data-center spending, and AI financing questions.
* TOMORROW’S MACRO PILE-UP CAN MOVE RATES. Core PCE, headline PCE, personal spending, durable goods, and the second Q2 GDP estimate all hit at 8:30.
* KOSPI staged a more than 3% open-to-close rally and finished up 0.69%, helped by domestic buying despite heavy foreign selling.
* S&P futures are up about 0.5% pre-market.
* Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.50% after a strong intraday recovery.
* The S&P 500 slipped 0.27% Monday.
* Chicago Fed National Activity Index cooled to -0.08 from a revised +0.06.
* Today’s U.S. calendar brings ADP weekly jobs at 8:15, then consumer confidence, new home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing at 10.
* Barkin speaks twice today.

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

@Dipper_pol @lloydblankfein legend

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

* KOSPI RIPPED 2.41%! Standout global equity move, though it faded intraday with a slightly negative open-to-close tape.
* CHINA CREDIT SHOCK: new yuan loans printed negative 340 billion yuan versus a small positive expected. Total social financing still beat.
* U.S. PPI cooled: July PPI was flat vs +0.2% expected. Core PPI rose 0.2% vs 0.3% expected. Initial claims ticked up to 209,000.
* WTI fell 2.43% Thursday, then bounced about 0.7% overnight.
* Hang Seng dropped 1.10% while Shanghai was basically flat. Nikkei gained 0.59%.
* S&P 500 rose 0.65% Thursday. Nasdaq added 0.81%.
* Silver Lake was reportedly in talks to buy Workday in a potential $43B software mega-deal.
* Applied Materials posted 25% revenue growth and stronger semiconductor-systems guidance tied to AI supply-chain demand.
* Today: U.S. retail sales at 8:30. Headline expected +0.1%, ex-autos +0.2%, control group +0.3%.
* Today: Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 10. $ES_F #nasdaq

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

The Morning Moss Report ! Pre-market Wednesday 12 August.
* KOSPI RIPS 3.69%! Samsung and SK Hynix both jumped around 7% after CoreWeave posted $2.58B in Q2 revenue, raised full-year guidance, and said backlog hit $104B.
* U.S. tech closed softer before the overnight AI reaction. Nasdaq fell 0.60%. S&P 500 slipped 0.32%.
* WTI rose 1.30% yesterday. Crude futures were nearly flat, up 0.14% at 7:22 New York time.
* Existing home sales fell 1.7% month-over-month in July, after June’s 2.4% drop.
* U.S. CPI hits at 8:30 New York time. Headline CPI is expected up 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Core CPI is expected at 0.32% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year.
* EIA crude inventories hit at 10:30 New York time.
* Tomorrow brings U.S. PPI and jobless claims at 8:30, plus UK GDP before dawn.

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

* WTI RIPS 5.05%! Crude is up another roughly 2.7% overnight.
* IRAN KEEPS HORMUZ PRESSURE ON. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait unless the U.S. ends port blockades, lifts sanctions, releases frozen assets, and pays compensation. The Strait handled about one-fifth of traded oil before the war.
* U.S. CPI TOMORROW. Prior headline CPI was 3.5% YoY. Prior core CPI was 2.6% YoY.
* Hang Seng fell 1.10%, with a heavier 1.33% open-to-close slide. Shanghai lost 0.81%. Kospi bucked the region with a 0.73% gain.
* Samsung jumped 4.1%, keeping Korea levered to the memory-chip trade.
* Today is energy-heavy: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook at noon Eastern, then API crude inventories at 4:30.
* Tomorrow also brings EIA crude stocks, plus IEA and OPEC oil reports.
* Japan Eco Watchers improved. Current conditions rose to 45.7 from 44.0. Outlook rose to 45.8. Both stayed below 50. #oott #wti

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

* WTI RIPS 2.75%! Futures added roughly 0.6% pre-market.
* THE TRADE DESK CRASHES ABOUT 22% AFTER HOURS! Missed and guided way below expectations.
* PAYROLLS DAY: July nonfarm payrolls due at 8:30 New York time. Expected 80K after 57K. Unemployment seen at 4.2%. Wages expected at 0.3% monthly and 3.5% yearly.
* Shanghai rose 1.03%, the standout in Asia.
* Kospi fell 0.60%, with a roughly 1.7% open-to-close intraday fade.
* China posted a larger-than-expected July trade surplus. Exports were near 24%.
* U.S. jobless claims came in at 199K, below expectations.
* Q2 productivity beat at 1.4% vs 0.6% expected. Unit labor costs undershot at 1.3% vs 2.1% expected.
* Airbnb beat and raised guidance.
* Atlassian delivered stronger cloud growth and better-than-expected guidance.

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

* KOSPI GOT SMOKED, DOWN 4.58%. AI-memory leverage was hit hard after Korea’s new curbs on single-stock leveraged ETFs and ETNs.
* SK HYNIX CRASHED 10.4%. Samsung lost 6.3%.
* SOFT U.S. LABOR SHOCK: ADP came in at 44,000 vs 70,000 expected.
* JULY PAYROLLS HIT TOMORROW. Consensus is 80,000. Unemployment is seen at 4.2%. Wages are expected at 0.3% month over month.
* Nasdaq faded 0.84%, including a 1.25% slide from open to close.
* S&P 500 slipped 0.17%.
* Hang Seng dropped 1.61%.
* Nikkei slipped 0.93%.
* Shanghai bucked the weakness, up 0.57%.
* DAX dipped 0.29% Wednesday.
* WTI fell 0.7% yesterday. Crude futures were basically flat premarket.
* ISM services stayed expansionary at 54.1, but came in slightly light.
* S&P Global services beat.
* Crude inventories built by 2.48 million barrels instead of drawing down.
* Today brings jobless claims, productivity, and unit labor costs at 8:30 New York time.
* Claims are expected to edge up to 202,000.
* Unit labor costs are the inflation-sensitive data point to watch.
#nasdaq #kospi $ES_F

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

SK Hynix dropped 30% ahead of the Seoul open** before ending down 10.4%

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

* NASDAQ RIPS 2.13%! AI and growth names led a strong open-to-close bid.
* S&P 500 JUMPS 1.47%! U.S. tape stays firmly higher into pre-market.
* ISM MANUFACTURING BEATS: 55.6 vs 54 expected. Employment returned to expansion at 52.8. Prices stayed hot at 71.1.
* Kospi rose 1.61% at the close, the standout in Asia.
* DAX gained 1.45% yesterday.
* Palantir beat Q2 estimates and raised 2026 revenue guidance.
* SpaceX earnings after today’s close are a major Nasdaq watch item.
* Today: 8:30 trade balance.
* Today at 10:00: JOLTS openings expected to slip to 7.45M. Factory orders expected to rebound 0.2%.
* Tomorrow: ADP payrolls, S&P services, and ISM services. ISM services expected at 54.5.
#spacex #palantir $es_f

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

* KOSPI EXPLODED 17.92%! Samsung jumped 28%. SK Hynix jumped 30%. AI-chip trade roared back.
* MEGACAP AI IGNITES RISK-ON MOVE. Microsoft’s 15.5% earnings move echoed through Asia. Amazon raised 2026 cash-capex plan to $220B. AWS growth accelerated to 37%.
* U.S. GROWTH MISSED AND INFLATION COOLED. Q2 GDP came in at 1.5% vs 2.1% expected. Core PCE cooled to 0.1% MoM vs 0.2% expected.
* CHINA PMIS SLIPPED BELOW 50. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs both moved into contraction.
* Nikkei jumped 4.03%.
* Nasdaq surged 2.78%.
* S&P 500 gained 1.67%.
* Employment Cost Index hits at 8:30 ET. Consensus is 0.8%, down from 0.9%.
* Chicago PMI hits at 9:45 ET.
* Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations land at 10 ET.
* Monday focus shifts to U.S. manufacturing. S&P Global PMI hits at 9:45 ET. ISM Manufacturing and ISM Prices hit at 10 ET. #kospi #korea $ES_F

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

* CRUDE RIPS 6.56%! WTI futures added roughly 0.3% this morning. Crude inventories plunged 7.167M barrels vs a 1.3M draw expected.
* U.S. TECH DE-RISKS HARD. Nasdaq dropped 1.74%. S&P 500 fell 1.52%, with futures bouncing about 0.3% this morning.
* FED HELD AS EXPECTED. Today brings core PCE, headline PCE, Q2 GDP, jobless claims, income, and spending at New York.
* Kospi fell 1.24%. Korea regulators are limiting access to leveraged ETFs after saying the products amplified volatility. Retail deposits and margin debt dropped after forced liquidations. Inverse SK Hynix ETF volume overtook the leveraged version.
* Core PCE is expected to cool to 0.2% monthly and 3.3% yearly. GDP is expected steady at 2.1%. Claims are expected to rise to 200,000. #crudeoil $es_f

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

* KOSPI CRASHES 5.98%. Intraday slide hit 7% and triggered a circuit breaker.
* FED DECISION TODAY. No rate change expected at 2 PM. Statement and press conference are the trade.
* WTI dropped 4.06% Tuesday, then crude futures bounced about 3.6% overnight. API crude showed a 3.296M barrel build vs a 2.5M draw expected.
* Chip panic hit Korea. Reports said China is developing domestic immersion DUV lithography. CXMT’s strong debut stoked memory-competition fears. SK Hynix missed estimates despite huge year-over-year growth.
* Nikkei closed down 1.60%.
* Consumer confidence slipped to 90.8 vs 92.3 expected.
* EIA crude is due at and has to confirm or clean up the API build.
* Tomorrow: Bank of England hold expected at 7 AM. U.S. gets advance Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, income, spending, and jobless claims at . Core PCE expected to cool to 3.3% YoY.

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

* KOSPI CRASHES 10.84%! KRX triggers sell-side sidecars and marketwide circuit breakers. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix reportedly hit double-digit intraday drops.
* WTI plunges 7.5% Monday, then falls another roughly 2.5% overnight. Nikkei drops 3.95%. Nasdaq slides 1.2% open-to-close before Asia breaks.
* U.S. durable goods miss hard at 0.3% vs 2.5% expected. Core capital-goods orders beat at 0.9%.
* China chip-equipment push back in focus with state-backed immersion DUV lithography production reportedly targeting major fabs.
* Watch consumer confidence, API crude inventories, EIA oil inventories, then the Fed hold expected at 3.75%.

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

> CRUDE CRATERS ROUGHLY 6% PRE-MARKET! WTI already fell 3.1% Friday. U.S.-Iran talk progress hits oil, even as Strait of Hormuz traffic sits at a 3-week low. Durable goods flop at 0.3% vs 2.5% expected.
> Core capex proxy beats at 0.9%. Services PMI jumps to 53.6 vs 51.5 expected. New-home sales beat at 628,000.
> Shanghai jumps 1.15% on CXMT’s massive semiconductor debut.
> Watch ADP jobs, goods trade, consumer confidence, and China Politburo signals. #oott $es_f

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

Samsung and SK Hynix together account for approximately half of KOSPI market capitalization. #kospi #semiconductors

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

Then the losses: min(Sunday low, Monday low) - prior Friday close /2

[Jason Moss @mossintel]

Big weekend for oil. Looking at data from start of May, here are the biggest weekend gains and losses. #oott

First the gains: max(Sunday high, Monday high) − prior Friday close /1