Mostly Snacks

Snackable most days, a whole meal on some - perspectives and learnings on Markets, Life, and the Void.

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

10/10
Conclusion: the domestic rates picture is unambiguously dovish — a bull steepener pricing forward RBI cuts — but it is colliding with a hostile external tape, and the collision is itself the rupee problem: India yields falling (bull steepener) while US yields rise (bear steepener) and US 10Y real yields break higher mechanically compresses the India–US rate differential, eroding carry and pressuring USD/INR to its record ~95.6 even with DXY soft; so the base case stays large-cap/Nifty underperformance vs. mid- and small-caps, with the rupee and the India 2s10s as the signals to watch — a sharper INR break or a stalling of the India bull-steepener would be the tell that the external channel is overwhelming the domestic easing impulse.

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

Indian Markets & Macro - 10 Point Brief (9th June 2026) 🧵 1/10
It’s evidently clear there is a breath divergence for a while now, CNX Midcap (60,470) and CNX Smallcap (17,950) are trading near their all time highs and sit above their 50 and 200 day moving averages, while NIFTY (23,188) 12% down for its all time highs and below all the long and short term moving averages large caps are the laggards, not the broad market.

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

9/10
Two nuances refine that: the 2s5s is a Bull Flattener (+37bp) — the belly (5y) is rallying even harder than the 2y, the part of the curve most sensitive to imminent cuts — while the 3m-based spreads are all "Flattener Twist" (+78 to +217bp), meaning the 3-month policy/T-bill rate is still anchored high (tight banking-system liquidity, cut not yet delivered) even as 2y+ rallies; in plain terms, easing is being anticipated and discounted forward, not yet enacted, which is exactly the dovish-but-pre-emptive setup that supports duration and rate-sensitive domestic sectors (financials, autos, real estate, capex-midcaps) — consistent with the mid/small-cap strength.

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

@Globalflows gm! ✊

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

@rossiadam 💪 really cool

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

@Globalflows this is so cool!

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

@Globalflows such a blast learning from the best everyday on the livestreams @Globalflows

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

@Globalflows gm!

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

@degennQuant @Globalflows

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

@Globalflows 100k congrats ♥️

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

@Globalflows gm!

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

@Globalflows gm locked in with flows for 2026 ✊

[Mostly Snacks @mostlyasnack]

@Globalflows gm!