Lee Huebner @mouseout69 - Twitter Profile

Two of the worst home run days in the last decade happened recently, and teams are averaging fewer than 1 HR per game so far in 2026. Here is some insight on the current state of home runs, using the various Ballpark Pal models (long post below, tldr at the bottom): Sim Results: Before getting into the analysis, it's worth noting that the Ballpark Pal sims have been pretty close to actuals when it comes to homers this year. Before yesterday's abysmal HR day, BP had projected 327 HRs so far this year vs 326 actual (now 4.8% higher after yesterday). This is without adjusting for any changes to the baseball and simply accounting for the normal important things like weather, stadiums, matchups, etc. I point this out because if a huge external factor had been introduced this season, the sims would probably be consistently overestimating the number of homers. Changes to the Baseball: MLB has appeared to introduce different performing baseballs nearly every year since 2016 (see the chart). The ball in most recent years hasn't flown as far, with the 2025 ball showing more drag than any year previously. So is there more drag this year than in 2025? Maybe - but it isn't dramatically different. This year's ball is producing 17% fewer homers than "expected" after accounting for weather and stadium factors. That's 3 percentage points lower than last season - enough to keep an eye on but not a big enough difference to make any conclusions this early in the year. Changes in Pitcher Approach: This is the most interesting difference. Pitchers appear to be less risky in aggregate in 2026. The various BP pitch models assign labels to every pitch, based on location and physics of the pitch itself (ignoring the batter outcome). Here are some changes this year: "Non-Competitive" pitches ⬆️ 12% to 16% "Likely Balls" ⬆️ 19% to 21.5% "Squarely in the zone" ⬇️ 33% to 29% HR chance per Pitch ⬇️ 0.77% to 0.67% Hit chance per Pitch ⬇️ 5.7% to 4.9% Home Run Candidate Fly Balls A ball can't be a home run if it isn't hit well in the air. For example, yesterday had only 11 home runs, but there were *only* 16 fly balls hit with > 50% chance of clearing the fence. Home Run Candidate fly balls as a % have been going up consistently since 2016. But...this year they're down 13% vs 2025 (independent of the weather). This supports the idea that it's less a "baseball drag" issue and more a result of pitchers being less risky with their offerings. tldr - The lack of home runs this season has been mostly predictable just from how bad the weather has been (BP sims are close to actuals). This year's baseball might have a bit more drag on it (too early to say for sure). The clearest difference is that pitchers are taking a less risky approach - which is leading to fewer fly balls that have a chance of being a home run.

BallparkPal's tweet photo. Two of the worst home run days in the last decade happened recently, and teams are averaging fewer than 1 HR per game so far in 2026.

Here is some insight on the current state of home runs, using the various Ballpark Pal models (long post below, tldr at the bottom):

Sim Results:

Before getting into the analysis, it's worth noting that the Ballpark Pal sims have been pretty close to actuals when it comes to homers this year. Before yesterday's abysmal HR day, BP had projected 327 HRs so far this year vs 326 actual (now 4.8% higher after yesterday).

This is without adjusting for any changes to the baseball and simply accounting for the normal important things like weather, stadiums, matchups, etc. I point this out because if a huge external factor had been introduced this season, the sims would probably be consistently overestimating the number of homers.

Changes to the Baseball:

MLB has appeared to introduce different performing baseballs nearly every year since 2016 (see the chart). The ball in most recent years hasn't flown as far, with the 2025 ball showing more drag than any year previously.

So is there more drag this year than in 2025? Maybe - but it isn't dramatically different. This year's ball is producing 17% fewer homers than "expected" after accounting for weather and stadium factors. That's 3 percentage points lower than last season - enough to keep an eye on but not a big enough difference to make any conclusions this early in the year.

Changes in Pitcher Approach:

This is the most interesting difference. Pitchers appear to be less risky in aggregate in 2026. The various BP pitch models assign labels to every pitch, based on location and physics of the pitch itself (ignoring the batter outcome). Here are some changes this year:

"Non-Competitive" pitches ⬆️ 12% to 16%
"Likely Balls" ⬆️ 19% to 21.5%
"Squarely in the zone" ⬇️ 33% to 29%
HR chance per Pitch ⬇️ 0.77% to 0.67%
Hit chance per Pitch ⬇️ 5.7% to 4.9%

Home Run Candidate Fly Balls

A ball can't be a home run if it isn't hit well in the air. For example, yesterday had only 11 home runs, but there were *only* 16 fly balls hit with > 50% chance of clearing the fence.

Home Run Candidate fly balls as a % have been going up consistently since 2016. But...this year they're down 13% vs 2025 (independent of the weather). This supports the idea that it's less a "baseball drag" issue and more a result of pitchers being less risky with their offerings.

tldr - The lack of home runs this season has been mostly predictable just from how bad the weather has been (BP sims are close to actuals). This year's baseball might have a bit more drag on it (too early to say for sure). The clearest difference is that pitchers are taking a less risky approach - which is leading to fewer fly balls that have a chance of being a home run.

16

449

53

133

197K

mouseout69 retweeted

Y2Casey

@Y2CASEY

5 months ago

Just emailed: PGA MASTERS TOURNAMENT RUNDOWN https://t.co/2yhWvzZIBp

0

3

2

0

138

Lee Huebner @mouseout69

5 months ago

@Y2CASEY Ol’ man power

0

1

0

25

Lee Huebner @mouseout69

5 months ago

@Y2CASEY Love it !!! 62 year old Walt dealing

1

0

27

mouseout69 retweeted

Y2Casey

@Y2CASEY

5 months ago

Just emailed: TUESDAY HOOPS RUNDOWN https://t.co/7Kw0flUE6F Good time to come through. Bout to drop March Madness, Fantasy Baseball Top 100, UFC, PGA, Nascar, and the usual daily stuff. 🚀

Y2CASEY's tweet photo. Just emailed: TUESDAY HOOPS RUNDOWN https://t.co/7Kw0flUE6F

Good time to come through. Bout to drop March Madness, Fantasy Baseball Top 100, UFC, PGA, Nascar, and the usual daily stuff. 🚀 https://t.co/fLtXS5v9Tn

1

4

0

223

Lee Huebner @mouseout69

6 months ago

@MoodyMacTV great day for a Rangers game

0

2

0

22

Lee Huebner

@mouseout69

Who to follow

Last Seen Users on Sotwe

Trends for you

Most Popular Users