@farokh@Tyler_Did_It@rektmando why did you stop uploading degenzlive to youtube? i love watching it there. can you bring it up there as well, please? π
Haven't posted much lately because honestly, last few months of crypto price action have been horrific.
That being said, I think there is a pretty decent chance that we are currently putting the local low in on ETH around $3900 this AM
Still long. Cycle not over IMO
Equity perps now live through the main front end
Expect single name stocks (NVDA, PLTR, HOOD, TSLA etc.) to get listed soon as well.
The home for all of finance.
@tsarrast uponly! looking forward to the next interview from you, brian. watching quite a lot old ones right now on youtube π have a good one, champ!
When ppl claim this I always wonder how they think it happens, or have unrealistic expectations on how much $1bn actually is.
I joined crypto with $200. If I held my initial bitcoin since then and never traded, I would have ~$300k.
If, instead, from that moment I sold the top and bought the bottom of every crypto cycle on Bitcoin, and never paid any taxes, I would have ~$6m USD.
If I put my entire net worth into the Ethereum ICO and never touched it, today I would have ~$150m pre-tax.
While it was definitely possible to have made >$1bn with the opportunities in the market, these versions of reality would also require me to make no mistakes, and have no need to spend $ in real life, or take excessive risk via leverage.
In reality, I grew up in a working class family. I didnβt have a trust fund and I had to pay off my student loan myself. I had a job at Tescos while at high school. After university, I needed to pay rent and fund cost of living and eventually buy a place to live.
I worked at startups for relatively little $ salary, and while a couple have done okay, they still are illiquid and worth nothing until some exit.
Perhaps if I erase a couple of dumb mistakes and drawdowns, or if I had a lil more grind, then my answer would be different today. But it is easy to say this with perfect hindsight vision. Itβs easy to see where you could have optimised better, and decisions you made look dumb when the past makes things so obvious.
The truth is I have always optimised for enjoying my life and not going to 0. I never felt like I had a safety net, so it was never possible for me to do anything in any other way. I would probably have less money if I had tried to add more risk or chased $ harder, because being all-in with your entire livelihood is a mental battle and I feel I only win that battle when the stakes are lower.
In writing this, maybe I do understand why CT folks believe this, because modern CT sees crypto as a late-stage lottery ticket farm, where the optimal strategy is to 5x leverage up your portfolio in a hope of catching a good 20% move and then leaving. Or, literally going all-in on the next coin they heard Ansem is buying. So perhaps to them, looking back at the charts, of course thatβs what successful folks did.
In reality, I use leverage close to never (and typically to reduce risk rather than add risk β have used it to add risk maybe 3 times in the last 5 years, and maybe 15 times ever). I never go all-in on anything, have only ever done that on BTC and ETH before in the last decade. When I buy other things, I limit risk to tiny amounts, because I treat it as a 0 until proven otherwise (so, always <1% liquid portfolio). Liquid portfolio is also a smaller % of overall portfolio to future-proof against my own fuckups.
Obviously I made a lot of money, I have been here 12 years! CT doesnβt want to hear about βgetting rich in a decadeβ though. I am happy with where I am and have never really cared or optimised for maximising $ earnings, but instead having a nice life that lets me enjoy the game we play together.
A small victory lap before we continue into what will be a truly wild Q4-
Easy to forget now with every asset looking like its about to pull a 2000 dot-com bubble chart but just 6 months ago the sky was falling under tariff tantrums.
Since then-- 50% return in 6months in a low vol asset with minimal drawdowns. First-principles driven and with little luck involved π₯
The key wisdom that will drive the discovery is same as it was in the one in April- "Water follows the path of least resistance".
Trump tried to do something other than print money but once the political blockades of that became apparent the water found a way to flow through. The uncertainty around currency status also increases the TAM for USD alternatives.
Now we are about to enter a high-volatility period- with rips up and inevitable liquidation cascades.
Still possible to PvE in this stage as there are overdue inflows coming from the tradfi world into crypto now. Gold:BTC ratio will fall, Wall St will keep finding ways to come in, and the most interesting part hasnt even started- when the geopolitical game theory of digital assets between US and China starts.
Strap in. We may witness more great risk/reward moments soon, in either direction. Clear eyes, full heart, controlled Fomo, cant lose.