Brian Rast

Poker Saiyan Hall of Famer by day,
Kwisatz Haderach trying to glimpse futures by night.
Devotee of strategy. Certainly curious. Inevitably improving.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

From 2/4k mix w 80k cap on Fri/Sat, to a 10k O8 bag & day 2 bust, to a $600 nlhe tournament today…
I’m here for all of it.

I have achieved the highest level of poker gambling mastery:
I have no side bets.
I own 0% of Stake Kings 25k team.

There is only love for the game.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

@JRTaylo41502615 Thank you sir - will be trying

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

Thanks bud. Sure, here it goes...

The Knicks have looked great in playoffs so far, but they are playing inferior competition. That said, they have aced the test: 12-2 w/ a great differential. They are a bit harder to gauge this way. SAS barreled through a good MIN team (MIN better than anyone the Knicks beat in the playoffs) & beat a great OKC team.

Over the last week+, the line for betting on them has moved substantially. Knicks were going to be closer to +300 vs the winner, and now they are less than +200. I realize some of that was pricing them different vs OKC & SAS. Not sure if that should apply w/ OKC having injury issues & SAS having none though.

At current prices (I got 64c which is about -178) I like the Spurs.

Brunson is great, but SGA is kind of a better version of him (great hesi mid-range game), and the Spurs did an amazing job defending him starting w/ Castle & having Wemby patrolling the paint. I expect them to do a good job w/ Brunson. That's a pretty big problem for New York if true.

I also think that if the experience thing (Spurs should not win their first playoff run for 6/8 best players) was going to stop them, it would of happened in the WCF, especially game 7 in OKC vs the defending champs. They played great, and lots of guys on their team stepped up in the 4Q and made shots. What nerves? What inexperience?

Wemby is going to make it very hard for NYK to play non-shooters like MRob or potentially JHart, which will potentially attack their lineups & depth.

After going through OKC's great & physical defense... and let's be real, the pace and ferocity of the WCF was just a league above and beyond the ECF, I just don't think the Spurs will find NYK's defense to be a more difficult nut to crack.

With 3 full days of rest, I like the Spurs being fully rested yet staying in rhythm - unlike Knicks who are out almost 2 weeks... probably too long rest. Also it appears the Spurs are fully healthy w/ Harper having 2 good games in a row & Fox finally looking better g7, while MRob & JHart appear to be battling lingering injuries. So while health is very high overall, the advantage might lean Spurs there.

So in summation, I would have bet the Knicks at +300. They can absolutely win this series. I thought the best bet of the playoffs was Knicks series vs Cavs. But I think the exuberance has gone too far.
178 or so for this series? I had some Knicks title futures, that I've now sold. I like the Spurs quite a bit at these prices. I would price the series around 250.

[Kar Yung Tom @kytmagic]

@tsarrast @elo_ned I enjoyed your OKC vs. SAS breakdown, Brian. Will you give us something for the finals too?

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

I think people rn are kinda forgetting how good OKC is. They are probably the better team this year by a sliver if everyone is full strength.
Yes Spurs didn't really have Fox (out 2 games, compromised for 4) & Harper was compromised for the middle of the series.
But OKC didn't have JDub at all & Ajay was out 3 games as well.
Net I would say that is slightly more costly for OKC. It is probably enough to swing the series more often than not. But we will never know.

Spurs going through that, then getting some rest - I actually think people are getting too hyped up on what NYK accomplished (yes 12-2 & great pd - but objectively one of the all-time easiest paths to a finals ever) & not enough on the Spurs. Spurs beat a good MIN team 4-2 but w/ a 16+ point differential & then beat OKC which is a truly great team w/ a top 3 player in the league.

I agree that I like that my post got basically no Spurs love & some Knicks vitriol. If this is who I'm betting against I feel pretty good about it.

I actually like Spurs g1 bc I think they will be rested, in rythym, and are already dialed all the way up as they had to give 100% to beat OKC. WCF was on a different level vs the ECF. Knicks haven't gone Super Saiyan yet, and will have to in order to have a chance.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

"moron"
The only moron in this discussion is you.
My Bitcoin investment advice has been good.
I never said Spurs in 5. I said I like the series bet at -178 & price it around 250. So you just straw-manned that (if you even know what that means)

Some acknowledgement of what? Markets go up and down - I even had a post acknowledging being wrong about Q4 being bullish - and discussing it in depth.
If you believe in an asset you buy it when it is down.
Additionally I've always been very clear that Bitcoin is a long-term 10yr+ play. The best thing is to buy when it is way down (like today), and just forget about it for a decade. It is a risky play that IMO is high EV - and I've always been straight up about that as well as the risks involved. I've been posting about Quantum for years & that & the security budget issue are both in my blog post.

I don't post much about sports exactly bc of jack-asses like you. Everyone is a winning sharp on twitter. I've never purported to be a professional sports bettor, and in fact if I was I wouldn't be giving away free takes on twitter.
That said I have probably won more than you these playoffs or how about over the last 3 playoffs. So there is that.

Piss off.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

maybe you feel this way, but it isn't the way basically the entire basketball world feels.
for starters, it's objectively much bigger than last year:
NYK is a much bigger draw than Indy
SAS & Wemby are both more significantly more popular now than OKC & Shai
In fact I would bet a lot at evens this is more watched than last year's finals.

Beyond the New York storyline, how big a market they are, how long their drought has been...
we have Wemby. I think you're also underestimating how big a deal & draw he is. He is being reasonably projected on MJ GOAT levels, esp if he wins this finals at 22 y/o on his first playoff run.

This is probably the biggest finals this decade, the only competition is 2022 BOS:GSW. And the only clear favorite over this is GSW:CLE matchups last decade w/ Curry vs LBJ. And the last couple of those weren't actually that interesting bc those Warriors teams were too good.

This finals has a series price now of around 175-180 middle, which means it is predicted to be competitive.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

@da_kyky Pretty big DB fan, and not really from childhood. I watched DB, DBZ, DB Super as well as played through DBZ:Kakarot on PS5 all during Covid.
We also have a gray Sphynx named Lord Beerus.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

From 2/4k mix w 80k cap on Fri/Sat, to a 10k O8 bag & day 2 bust, to a $600 nlhe tournament today…
I’m here for all of it.

I have achieved the highest level of poker gambling mastery:
I have no side bets.
I own 0% of Stake Kings 25k team.

There is only love for the game.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

I wrote this article in Sept 2019 that I shared on twitter:
https://t.co/rhInj44Fii
Bitcoin was about 9k then. If you followed my advice and bought some BTC, yes you'd be down from peak... but your investment would be up 7.5x today. The S&P is up about 2.6x since then for comparison.
So you'd have done alright.

As far as this series, it is yet to happen so pretty hard to count it against me atm... but I'd be happy to bet Spurs in 5 vs Knicks in 5 with ya buddy.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

I don't use DK - but if this is true it is beyond shameful (and I am sure this or something just like it is if Bob is posting it)
DK can just accumulate Spurs -4 and lay it off elsewhere on Knicks obviously: farming their clients. It's like playing a poker game where you don't just kick winners, but kick anyone who is not an outright fish (ie not taking market worst lines).

All these predatory books deserve to be put out of business by prediction markets that offer 1c spreads (or less!) and don't ban anyone. Gee, I wonder which is better for people that want to bet sports.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

@AndrewLipo Kat is very important this series for sure. He is tough for Spurs to deal with as well.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

@RH_SINYC By the way, I will add that I love Knicks fans videos. I appreciate the passion. I will be happy for you guys if you win and can't wait to watch the videos of y'all tearing the place up and berating Spurs fans, even if I'm a little sad I lose some money.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

you have "Knicks over everything" in your bio - of course you are biased and a homer. But you're a fan and that's alright.
I don't have a dog in this race. I am just betting my opinion. I like both teams, but am not from either place nor "a fan" of either.

But I'll bite...

Knicks beat a 4 seed, 6 seed, & a 7 seed. Probably one of the all-time easiest walks to the finals, ever. Knicks looked great against the JV squad. Maybe they are really good... or maybe not. We will see. The Cavs are one of the weaker teams to make an ECF, and in general the East sucked this year. Detroit & Boston were both overrated teams that overperformed in the regular season and didn't have an extra gear in the playoffs, because they were already in it for the 82.

MIN series went 6, but they lost the two games by 7 points total & won the 4 games by 104. So a +16 point differential over 6 games. Isn't point differential what Knicks fans are pointing to as to why they are so dominant? Again, MIN was much better than any team NYK faced.

OKC is a monster, and even with JDub out the series & Ajay out for some, they are better than MIN & the Knicks & any team the Knicks played.

But whatever, this is why we have markets. Bet your money how you want. They should be all-time value at +money if you're right and they are the better team.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

@jackson_br67676 Knicks fans are the best - I love the videos.
I’ll be happy for you guys if you win, even if I’m sad I lose some money.

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

@champlahoma @MrEnlightened9 I would bet you a million straight up Wemby vs Luka.
Wemby is about to play for a title as a favorite.
You’re retarded and bad at math. But people like you keep the gambling world afloat.
Gg

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

Late Reg and chillax with @PhilLaak myself and Jason Sommerville!

https://t.co/szWBW7rBZF

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

@jeremyausmus 🤝
So at the top, I’d actually read it. (Shade being thrown at my reading list)

[Brian Rast @tsarrast]

Whether he wins or not (3 left), we should be so lucky as to get an “Every Hand Revealed” book for the $1500 Badugi written by one Scott Seiver.
#iykyk