Mr. CheckPoint

Data first. Opinions second.
CHECK the facts. 📉📈

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

$SPCX — why I see 2027 as the bullish year for SpaceX

The June IPO barely scratched the surface of this story. First quarter as a public company, and the numbers speak for themselves: revenue +92% YoY to $7.8B, adjusted EBITDA +191%. That's not hype, that's execution.

The real driver is diversification. Starlink keeps adding subscribers (+1.7M net adds in Q2 alone), but the segment I'm watching closest is the AI/orbital data center business, up 247% YoY. This isn't "just" a rocket company anymore — it's critical infrastructure across multiple fronts: global connectivity, defense, and now compute in orbit.

Deutsche Bank called the company's target of $100B in annualized recurring revenue by year-end "likely very achievable." If that holds, 2027 becomes the year the market has to fully re-rate the multiple — from "growth bet" to "strategic global infrastructure."

The stock has already shown post-IPO volatility (trading range between $108 and $161), but that's normal price discovery for a listing this size, not a signal about the fundamentals.

Risks to watch: Starship launch cadence, execution on the lunar base/Mars roadmap, and rising competition in the satellite sector.

— Mr. Checkpoint

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

$AVGO — the one I'm watching most closely next week

Broadcom reports earnings Wednesday, September 2, right on the heels of Nvidia's blowout guide (70% revenue growth projected for next fiscal year). That sets up a real read-through test for AVGO.

Why I like the setup: Broadcom's custom AI chip business (XPUs) has been quietly becoming one of the most credible non-Nvidia plays on AI compute. Recent reporting flagged its custom silicon work with OpenAI as a validation point — hyperscalers and AI labs diversifying away from pure Nvidia dependency is a structural tailwind, not a one-quarter story.

The market wants to know if Broadcom can offer the same forward visibility Nvidia just gave. If management leans into similar multi-quarter guidance on AI revenue, that's the kind of confirmation that re-rates the stock rather than just beating a single print.

Context: this is happening in a week where Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, Salesforce, Snowflake, and Dell also report — so the whole "is AI infrastructure spend still accelerating" narrative gets stress-tested across software and semis simultaneously. AVGO sits right at the center of that thesis given its custom chip + networking exposure.

Risk to flag: expectations are elevated after NVDA's print, so anything short of strong AI-specific commentary could trigger a "sell the news" reaction even on an otherwise solid quarter.

— Mr. Checkpoint

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

$CPRT — my pick for a stock under $50 to hold for the next 5 years

Copart trades around $32-33, down significantly from its 2025 high of ~$64. Here's why I'd hold through the noise:

The moat: Copart runs the dominant online salvage vehicle auction platform globally — 4M+ transactions a year, 750K+ registered buyers, operations across 11 countries. Analysts consistently flag this moat as intact even during the recent stock weakness. It's a network-effect business: more buyers attract more sellers, and vice versa.

Why the price dropped: A CEO transition (Jeff Liaw stepping down, founder Jay Adair returning) triggered an 8%+ selloff and a shareholder-rights investigation overhang. That's a governance/sentiment issue, not a broken business model — revenue and international expansion (+14% YoY) are still growing.

Balance sheet: $5.5B in liquidity, aggressive buybacks ($1.6B+ in the last 9 months), and strong free cash flow generation even after heavy repurchases.

The setup: You're getting a wide-moat, high-ROE compounder at a meaningfully lower multiple than it traded at a year ago, with a founder-CEO back at the helm. Five years is enough time for a leadership transition to prove out or not — and the core auction business keeps producing cash either way.

Risk to flag: Competition from RB Global/IAA is real, and buyback timing hasn't been perfect recently, so this isn't a "priced for zero mistakes" stock.

— Mr. Checkpoint

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

$MELI — best stock outside the S&P 500 to hold for the next decade?

MercadoLibre is the dominant e-commerce + fintech platform across Latin America, a region still under-penetrated on both fronts compared to the US, Europe, and Asia. That's a long growth runway most large caps don't have left.

Mercado Pago (the fintech arm) is now growing faster than the core e-commerce business, giving the company two growth engines instead of one and reducing reliance on marketplace take-rates alone.

The interesting part: MELI isn't excluded from the S&P 500 for lack of quality. It's incorporated in Uruguay, which makes it ineligible under the index's domicile rules. That's a structural quirk, not a red flag — meaning most index investors don't own it even though it trades like a large-cap winner.

Track record matters too. The company has executed through multiple currency crises, inflation spikes, and political instability across Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico. That's a management team that's been stress-tested.

Risks worth flagging: FX exposure to EM currencies, a valuation that already reflects a lot of optimism, and rising competition from Amazon, Shopee, and local players.

An alt in the same "quality compounder outside the index" bucket: $CSU (Constellation Software) — Canadian, same domicile exclusion, exceptional long-term compounding track record via vertical software M&A.

Not financial advice, just my read.

CHECK

— Mr. Checkpoint

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

$AAOI — the sector comparison bulls should be watching

Optical/photonics is the picks-and-shovels trade of the AI buildout, and the three names to watch are AAOI, LITE (Lumentum), and COHR (Coherent). Here's why AAOI's setup stands out to me:

Growth rate: AAOI's datacenter revenue is up 140%+ YoY, outpacing peer growth rates. Fifth straight quarter of record revenue, Q3 guided up to $290M.

Manufacturing edge: 1.6M+ sq ft of Texas capacity, expanding toward 900K units/month by Q4 2027, with the bulk US-based. If the FCC does move on Chinese transceiver imports, AAOI is one of the cleanest beneficiaries — domestic supply chain, ready to scale.

Valuation gap: LITE and COHR trade north of 100x trailing earnings on the back of this same AI-optics wave. AAOI, despite the run, still trades at a relative discount on a price/sales basis versus the group.

Market tailwind: LightCounting sees the AI cluster optics market growing 60% to $26B in 2026 alone — a rising tide for the whole group, with AAOI leveraged more directly to the module ramp.

The recent dilution (ATM raises) reads more like fuel for the ramp than a red flag, given the demand backdrop.

CHECK — numbers above pulled from Q2 2026 earnings + latest guidance.

— Mr. Checkpoint

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

$SIVE had a brutal sell-off yesterday after the Q2 report. At first glance, it looked ugly. But this is exactly where I like to take a step back and do a #CHECK.

Fundamentally, the story hasn’t suddenly changed. We’re looking at a $1.2B opportunity pipeline, up 268% since December, product revenue +18% YoY and several programs moving toward volume production. 2027 could be a major year for Sivers.

Then there’s the chart. After yesterday’s collapse, $SIVE had room to keep falling and potentially break below the July low. It didn’t. Today, despite weakness across the broader market, the stock found support and held that level.

That’s the part I’m watching now. A huge sell-off followed by stabilization at an important technical level can create an interesting setup.

If the July low holds, I wouldn’t be surprised to see $SIVE rebound strongly on Monday. A 3–4% move would be very reasonable, and if momentum comes back, the move could be much bigger. 👀🚀

I’m not investing in Sivers for what happens over one or two days. I’m watching the transition toward volume production, customer ramps and what the business could look like in 2027 and beyond.

Yesterday was ugly. But ugly price action doesn’t automatically mean a broken thesis.

— Mr. Checkpoint

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@cherryPayment I am with you mark

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@Million_Sancet From today’s chart, $SIVE could have continued lower and broken below the July low. It didn’t. After yesterday’s news, it dropped hard but then found support. Today the whole market was weak, not just $SIVE. If the July low holds, I wouldn’t be surprised by a 3–4% rebound Monday.

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@PepInvestStocks @SiversSemicond So are you still bullish?

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@babyfolio I like your point of view

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@Million_Sancet we are the resistance

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@twofourseven___ bullish?

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@LassilaJonathan Why so much hate? You can criticize the numbers without celebrating other people’s losses. Have you never taken a risk yourself? $SIVE is a risky bet, we all know that. Time will tell who was right.

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@SvenNordenstam @EFNTV Bullish?

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@Brownmoose what do you think?

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

$SIVE has almost become a tool for certain profiles to wage their own little war. They seem to enjoy it when others lose, just to say “I told you so.” Then, when the stock goes up, they’ll probably wish they had bought it themselves. 😂

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@h79sharesunder Thanks for the kindness 😂 Then you know the game: one day up, one day down. Otherwise, I’d be at the casino. 🎰

[Mr. CheckPoint @Mrcheckpoint1]

@JonkooTrades The only way to get noticed.