Mr. Doppy

Loophole detector and fine print reader extraordinaire.

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

My gambling life is so glamorous… I’m sitting alone at a state border, sweating a $30k TXAM hoops bet, tailgating solo with cold, day old pizza in my trunk.

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

The worst part of advantage play is that your best edges always lives right at the intersection of maximum bankroll weaponization and emotional suffering.

The best part is the freedom to think creatively while building amazing friendships.

It’s a solid trade, imo.

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

@PlusEVAnalytics Not as popular as you might expect. Powerball players know they won’t win, but they’re paying to sweat it for a few days. More frequent drawings would slash mental and social +EV, while making the -EV more obvious, imo.

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

@TVatWork @FOX4 I remember when this pudding arb happened. I was amazed and inspired.

https://t.co/hwiRMSO8wB

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

I have always learned a lot from the @LVA_Tweet’s books, blogs and content. I had a great time being in the studio audience for Beer Friday. Thanks for the hospitality!

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

Since this tweet, the S&P 500 has crushed DraftKings on a risk-adjusted basis.

What’s next, $DKNG?

1. Watch prediction markets take market share and squeeze your margins.

2. Turn on the promo firehose, buy handle, and accelerate your own demise.

Both?

I love this parlay!

[Jason Robins @JasonDRobins]

If you sold #DKNG today, just be aware that my team and I are on a mission to make you regret that decision more than any other decision you’ve ever made in your life

[Thomas Viola 🦥 @TVatWork]

The question on every gambler's mind right now: Will Congress fix the gambling loss deduction rate?

I sat down with Nevada Congresswoman Dina Titus @repdinatitus to talk about her push to do just that with the FAIR BET Act, what's holding Congress up, when bettors can expect more news, and more!

Tune in now in the links below 👇

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

I fundamentally believe that most people do not want crypto, gold, or silver.

They want volatility, convexity, and dopamine, so they gladly rent whatever asset provides those things.

The assets become the casino.

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

@capjack2000 Adverse selection isn’t worth the risk. Keeping sharp minds more interested in your ecosystem inevitably ends poorly.

However, the strongest countermeasures tend to create the most operator overconfidence.

So, I’ll gladly let them do whatever they think is the safest.

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

Update:

@CaesarsSports reached out directly, escalated the issue, and the funds have now been credited. They also shared they are working with vendors to improve visibility and resolution on issues like this going forward.

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

I made a two withdrawals from @CaesarsSports for just over $46k. They tell me the withdrawals approved, but funds never hit my bank. They advise me to send pdf statement in January.

Ho, ho, ho… off to gaming I go!

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

@CaesarsHelp Ok, let’s work this out, thanks!

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

I made a two withdrawals from @CaesarsSports for just over $46k. They tell me the withdrawals approved, but funds never hit my bank. They advise me to send pdf statement in January.

Ho, ho, ho… off to gaming I go!

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

@jacksonwoodHQ Historically, this statement has most often uttered with a twinge of sadness and mild resignation. 😉

[Risk of Ruin Podcast @halfkelly]

Was very nice of @jeffma and @RufusPeabody to have me on. I could probably amend my answer related to the AP that I would invest in thus: I said @t_stephens97 for reasons covered in our episode and also the way that other APs are pretty much in awe... however...

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

@capjack2000 As someone who had hip surgery Monday, please allow me to formally welcome you to the Island of Misfit Toys!

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

@capjack2000 Wishing you positive variance! I’ll take Elite Full Recovery at any number for the limit, please.

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

Exactly this! I’ve often argued that advantage play saved my life. My preparation for heart surgery was fueled by support from friends and optimized relentlessly through an advantage play framework that tracked every metric to reduce marginal risks.

[Captain Jack Andrews @capjack2000]

Enjoyed this story from @jeffedelstein. I told him meeting Ed Thorp is like an electrician meeting Thomas Edison.💡

His analogy using Einstein and physicists is pretty apropos as well.

Always an honor to attend the Blackjack Ball
https://t.co/FYPk8IaIo8

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

@halfkelly You’re too kind! Your writing and editing made the difference.

[David Hill @davehill77]

This week I talk to @rxgamble about the book "Dangerous Odds," a memoir of one woman's life in an illegal bookmaking operation in the 1980s and 90s. Link to the full episode in my bio.

[Mr. Doppy @MrDoppy]

It is amazing how many human interactions are dominated by the false and lazy assumption that confidence and conformity are the same thing as intelligence and potential.

[Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics]

It's funny that people like prediction markets because they think they're trading against Joe Shmoe on his laptop in Palookaville rather than sophisticated powerhouse Draftkings, when they're secretly trading against someone way smarter and more sophisticated than Draftkings