Mr.Froxter

independent research on prediction markets | writing stuff @flowframe_ | NFA

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

Shared work = signal’s landing.

Grateful on @Kalshi ‘s CoFounder @mansourtarek_ + HeadOfCrypto @j0hnwang reposting/validating mkt analysis.

Goal: produce high quality work that’s actually useful for serious traders/participants.

More coming.

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

NEW TRADE: Measles Cases Market @Kalshi

Pulled CDC week-by-week data and ran a fwd model to check how realistic is for total US measles cases to be above 2,000 this yr

1) outbreak has already collapsed
– Classic wave → plateau → collapse structure; weekly cases falling 40 → 18 → 3
– No evidence of new transmission chains forming; a yr-end spike would need to reverse a the contraction

2) fwd scenarios using weekly additions
– Low case: +5/week
– Base case: +20/week
– Outbreak case: +50/week

3) results across all paths
– Low ends ~1,828
– Base ends ~1,918
– Even the 50/week stress scenario peaks ~2,098

To justify >2000 with confidence, you’d need 70–100 cases/week, don't think happening this late in the curve

our read
Market pricing for “Above 2000” looks optimistic. With six reporting weeks left and the outbreak curve collapsing, the >2000 outcome seems overestimated.

buying some NOs here. mkt in comments.

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

A new Internet Money Era is informe of us

Claude is breaking bricks every single day

lfg

[The Claude Portfolio @theaiportfolios]

The Claude Autonomous Agents have officially arrived

So we're setting them up with a brand new $50,000 portfolio to see how well they do at investing in stocks

Can they outperform Buffett?

Here’s how the portfolio works

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

https://t.co/yVrNp2nrvg

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

TRADE UPDATE: US strikes Iran by...? @Polymarket

Shorted this given fear + rumors were overpricing YES

Mkt structure + rules > geopolitcall call trade

> Entered on Jan 13 & pocketed several NOs all the way to Jan 18

>On Jan 14 rumors hit (airspace closure, evecuations) & YES shares skyrocketed to 80%

>Decided to ride the NOs cuz IMO traders were achoring recent Nicolas Maduro events + several escalation paths would lead to NO - interceptions, land invasion, etc

>> 6 Polymarkets won +37% return <<

full @flowframe_ trade analysis/article + mkt in comments

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

https://t.co/NCNdUJIF8v

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

@ZeroSelf_ @Spotify @Kalshi could be. more interesting is how morgan is undervalued imo

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

1/3 NEW TRADE: Reverse-engineering @Spotify 's Top U.S Artist methodology @Kalshi

ppl treat this mkt as culture / vibes

>tried to decompose it into data → math → probabilities

>>here's what numbers are singing rn

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

https://t.co/ID4Esl7Dm4

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

https://t.co/PyEbJILpxE

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

@fronkfeeds @GaetenD It’s def @fronkfeeds

SCAM = BlOCKED

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

@GaetenD I can confirm this account is a SCAM

beware of @fronkfeeds DMs. DO NOT TRUST THEM!

they’ll try to get you on a call &amp; break into your computer.

@CoinMarketCap should take it out from it’s affiliated socials.

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

great breakdown on mispriced Venezuela / Maduro mkts

&gt;&gt; alpha by @flowframe_

don't sleep on it.

[flowframe @flowframe_]

Odds are moving fast so getting this out tonight-

1/10🚨 MADURO CAPTURED. It is January 4, 2026. Delta Force has executed "Operation Absolute Resolve," extracting Nicolas Maduro and his wife from Caracas to face charges in NY. The geopolitical map just broke. But the real story is in the prediction markets. Here is the alpha on the Venezuela Strike & what is mispriced right now. 🧵👇

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

@flowframe_ @Polymarket Yessir!

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

starting the year strong

&gt; 13 mkts won (ending Dec 31) @Polymarket
&gt;categories ranging Geo, Politics, War, Crypto, ++

&gt;&gt; blended IRR of 23.3%

looking fwd to what this year will bring. happy new year fam!

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

@mert @reiaposting soul nids nyc

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

@Samueldaodu22 thx!

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

aged well.

+33% ROI by looking at Comps

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

NEW TRADE: Jordan 8 Bugs Bunny 7-day-Av. price @Kalshi

>IMO they'll prob hit the ~$220 / $240 range<

>grabbed some @stockx comps + built tiered pricing to bench where BBs should land

>left side=compset + rationale
>right side=retail vs Av.-7day sell $ for Tier1 & Tier2

Approach
>bucketed relevant Jordan 8s releases into Tier1 & 2 based on demand profile & Av.-7day sell $ / Retail ratio
>benched BBs early data: $210 retail price, last sale ~$250 (+19%), Av. sell $ / Retail ~1.18x

View
>>BBs trending closer to Tier1, not Tier2
>> Av. sell $ appears to be above @Kalshi 's strikes

Trade
<>someone fill my sits pls<>
YES on >$200 & >$220
potentially >$240 as data prints

will update thesis/position as release date hits
mkt in comments

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

@BunchuBets lfg!

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

@Tahit1bob @jagajagajagaida awesome - always down to colab!

[Mr.Froxter @MrFroxter]

https://t.co/KAuyVklPLR