flowframe

Real time Prediction Market Analytics and Research for Polymarket & Kalshi traders. Join 2000+ newsletter subscribers.

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Just getting started 🚀

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Ed Zitron states that OpenAI and Anthropic should not be permitted to pursue IPOs, labeling them

‘dangerous, lossy companies’ that lack a viable path to profitability and pose risks to retail investors.”

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@mulashini5875 True

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Someone put $15.3M on the line to make $59,603.

Polymarket trader bobe2.1 holds 15.4M shares of NO on "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?" bought at 99.6¢.

That's a 0.39% potential return. On fifteen million dollars!!.

The deadline already passed. Now there's a dispute.
If this resolves YES, he walks away with nothing. If it resolves NO, he clears less than $60K on a $15M position.

Biggest risk/reward mismatch on Polymarket right now.

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JUST IN: Bitcoin drops below $62,000 as $1.5 billion in crypto longs get wiped out

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@sixers0321 @unusual_whales No

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JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇱 US President Trump says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is a "great partner."

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🚨JUST IN: Ray Dalio says the AI bubble will burst eventually.

Bridgewater founder warns in a fresh Bloomberg interview at today's Forbes Iconoclast Summit:

"So I think it is. Yes."

He still believes the underlying tech will transform the world long-term, just not the current valuations.

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Significant probability shifts are now visible across crypto, sports, and political markets.

The most notable development is the ongoing Polymarket dispute saga surrounding the MicroStrategy (MSTR) resolution market:

“Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?”

→ Current YES probability: 0.3%
This low reading, combined with the broader heatmap movements, highlights how quickly crowd-sourced probabilities adjust and how contentious resolution disputes can become when real capital and reputation are on the line.

Prediction markets remain one of the most efficient truth-seeking mechanisms available. The MSTR May 31 saga is a live case study in their strengths and limitations.

What’s your read on the dispute? Will Polymarket’s final resolution align with the current market pricing?

[flowframe @flowframe_]

Heat Map of Markets Today

The overall market is drifting sideways. Most contracts sit below 2% probability with thin liquidity and no dominant directional thesis. Sharp money is only active in a handful of spots.

Where the conviction is:

The San Antonio Spurs contract (NBA Finals odds) is the single biggest trade on the board at 37.5% and falling 2.7 points, it's the clearest bear position anywhere on the map.

Bitcoin's "$150k by June 30" contract trades at just 1.4%, pulling $5.8M in 24-hour volume with the Yes side stuck around 1–1.35%. The crowd is pricing in near-zero chance of a near-doubling in six weeks even as Michael Saylor announced on May 18 that Strategy acquired another 24,869 BTC for ~$2B. His firm now holds 843,738 BTC (4% of total supply ever) at a $75,700 blended cost basis. He briefly floated the idea of selling a small amount for dividends on May 11, then walked it back immediately. There has been zero actual selling.

That's the central tension: the market's most active treasury buyer keeps accelerating, while prediction markets assign essentially no probability to a near-term price breakout.

Elsewhere: Geopolitical contracts "Will China invade…" (7.4%) and a Germany related contract (5.1%) are the only mid single digit non-sports tiles and show no sign of decaying. World Cup group stage and 2028 Republican primary contracts remain fragmented across hundreds of sub-1% positions with no standout conviction.

Follow the heatmap in real time https://t.co/M0nw3onHF4

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@MaxCrypto buy the DIP!!!!

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@0xd1namit when flowframe ?

[flowframe @flowframe_]

A prediction market intelligence terminal aggregating Polymarket and Kalshi in one place.

Whale tracking, smart money signals, political transcript search, AI-powered market research, and portfolio tools all in one dashboard.

Plus FlowFrame Edge, which brings all of that directly into Discord servers.

The idea is simple: serious traders shouldn't have to watch two platforms and react late. FlowFrame gives them the full picture, ahead of the move.

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@PolymarketMoney its been a long ride

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@willo2_Poly willo against Polymarket, i cant wait for the resolution

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@PredMTrader and use flowframe its not that hard

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2019: First hop (Starhopper)

2021: First successful landing (SN15)

2023: First integrated Starship launch

2023: First successful stage separation

2024: First successful re-entry

2024: First booster catch with launch tower

2024: First in-space engine relight

2025: First reused Super Heavy booster

2026: First V3 payload deployment

This is what not giving up looks like.

Progress isn't always linear.
Sometimes it's failing forward, year after year, until the impossible becomes routine.

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@Jeremybtc Would you hold

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@Kalshi

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JUST IN: $BTC June Outlook Turns Bearish: Kalshi Traders See Monthly Low Sliding to $66,000

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JUST IN: 🇷🇺 Russia claims to have stopped a massive spy software operation on high-ranking officials' mobile phones