Ed Zitron states that OpenAI and Anthropic should not be permitted to pursue IPOs, labeling them
‘dangerous, lossy companies’ that lack a viable path to profitability and pose risks to retail investors.”
Someone put $15.3M on the line to make $59,603.
Polymarket trader bobe2.1 holds 15.4M shares of NO on "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?" bought at 99.6¢.
That's a 0.39% potential return. On fifteen million dollars!!.
The deadline already passed. Now there's a dispute.
If this resolves YES, he walks away with nothing. If it resolves NO, he clears less than $60K on a $15M position.
Biggest risk/reward mismatch on Polymarket right now.
🚨JUST IN: Ray Dalio says the AI bubble will burst eventually.
Bridgewater founder warns in a fresh Bloomberg interview at today's Forbes Iconoclast Summit:
"So I think it is. Yes."
He still believes the underlying tech will transform the world long-term, just not the current valuations.
Significant probability shifts are now visible across crypto, sports, and political markets.
The most notable development is the ongoing Polymarket dispute saga surrounding the MicroStrategy (MSTR) resolution market:
“Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?”
→ Current YES probability: 0.3%
This low reading, combined with the broader heatmap movements, highlights how quickly crowd-sourced probabilities adjust and how contentious resolution disputes can become when real capital and reputation are on the line.
Prediction markets remain one of the most efficient truth-seeking mechanisms available. The MSTR May 31 saga is a live case study in their strengths and limitations.
What’s your read on the dispute? Will Polymarket’s final resolution align with the current market pricing?
Heat Map of Markets Today
The overall market is drifting sideways. Most contracts sit below 2% probability with thin liquidity and no dominant directional thesis. Sharp money is only active in a handful of spots.
Where the conviction is:
The San Antonio Spurs contract (NBA Finals odds) is the single biggest trade on the board at 37.5% and falling 2.7 points, it's the clearest bear position anywhere on the map.
Bitcoin's "$150k by June 30" contract trades at just 1.4%, pulling $5.8M in 24-hour volume with the Yes side stuck around 1–1.35%. The crowd is pricing in near-zero chance of a near-doubling in six weeks even as Michael Saylor announced on May 18 that Strategy acquired another 24,869 BTC for ~$2B. His firm now holds 843,738 BTC (4% of total supply ever) at a $75,700 blended cost basis. He briefly floated the idea of selling a small amount for dividends on May 11, then walked it back immediately. There has been zero actual selling.
That's the central tension: the market's most active treasury buyer keeps accelerating, while prediction markets assign essentially no probability to a near-term price breakout.
Elsewhere: Geopolitical contracts "Will China invade…" (7.4%) and a Germany related contract (5.1%) are the only mid single digit non-sports tiles and show no sign of decaying. World Cup group stage and 2028 Republican primary contracts remain fragmented across hundreds of sub-1% positions with no standout conviction.
Follow the heatmap in real time https://t.co/M0nw3onHF4
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2019: First hop (Starhopper)
2021: First successful landing (SN15)
2023: First integrated Starship launch
2023: First successful stage separation
2024: First successful re-entry
2024: First booster catch with launch tower
2024: First in-space engine relight
2025: First reused Super Heavy booster
2026: First V3 payload deployment
This is what not giving up looks like.
Progress isn't always linear.
Sometimes it's failing forward, year after year, until the impossible becomes routine.