PredictionMarketTrader

Prediction Market Trader | $500k+ Profit | Kalshi Partner | Ref Link →

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

Mention Markets, NFL, Midterms with @Foster https://t.co/IqGqxJcO29

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

New all time high for Talarico

Time to get the freak on

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

Looks like a new Kalshi homepage just debuted, with a heavy focus on the midterms.

[Gabby Birenbaum @birenbomb]

New poll from Cook Political Report/New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group

#TXSEN
🔵Talarico: 49%
🔴Paxton: 44%
⚪️Brown: 3%

#TXGOV
🔴Abbott: 48%
🔵Hinojosa: 46%
⚪️Dixon: 3%

Fielded 10/9-13, n=934 LV, MOE=+-3/2%

https://t.co/ig0FJjxBG8

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

Eagerly awaiting the first Kalshi leaderboard refresh

Need to see how my friends and enemies are doing

Always compare yourself to others, not to who you were yesterday

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

Amazing things happening

[Cooper Burton @cooperrburton]

This is incredibly misleading. @50plus1news was planning to publish an investigation into Wedgewood's polls tomorrow morning, and reached out to them this morning for comment. This is just an attempt to save face after they realized we caught them.

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

Lesson in that

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

It's interesting how little the early voting data seems to move the prediction markets. I've seen people on here say that the Texas voting has either been terrible or excellent for Talarico, yet the people with money on the line don't seem to ascribe any signal to it.

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

It's interesting how little the early voting data seems to move the prediction markets. I've seen people on here say that the Texas voting has either been terrible or excellent for Talarico, yet the people with money on the line don't seem to ascribe any signal to it.

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

@RetardedGambler Wow

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

Easily the craziest ad I’ve seen this cycle.

I wonder if it’s even a net positive for Vivek. Have to imagine a decent number of people will be completely turned off by this.

[Ryan Fournier @RyanAFournier]

BOMBSHELL: Amy Acton’s own MOTHER just dropped a devastating ad warning Ohio NOT to elect her daughter.
She calls Amy a habitual liar who “needs help” and is totally unfit for governor.
When your own mother begs voters to stay away, it’s OVER.
Must watch! 👇

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

@AndrewMarotta8 https://t.co/gYioWSd0gr

[Kalshi Research @KalshiResearch]

Read the full study: https://t.co/6dGGxg02fq

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

Looks like mentions have the highest density of sharp takers

[Kalshi Research @KalshiResearch]

We analyzed over 1 billion trades to find out why Kalshi markets are so accurate. A group of 15,000 superforecasters is largely responsible.

What stands out:

-There are 14,694 people on Kalshi who have significantly better predictive ability than other traders. This is measured by Brier skill score, which tracks trader calibration.

-They provide their forecasts to the whole platform, not just the top few markets. Skilled traders are active in 97.3% of markets.

-Timing and category change behavior: for example, superforecasters enter economic markets earlier, and sports markets later.

-These traders aren’t concentrated in the coasts or major cities. They come from all around the country, with Wyoming having the most per capita.

Prediction markets provide an incentive for smart people to do research, think rationally, and share their views with the world.

This incentive has brought almost 15,000 superforecasters to Kalshi, who create a public good by providing accurate forecasts to nearly every market on the platform.

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

Runs study analyzing skilled traders

Their first step is to remove market makers

Unbelievably based and Chad taker-pilled

[Kalshi Research @KalshiResearch]

We analyzed over 1 billion trades to find out why Kalshi markets are so accurate. A group of 15,000 superforecasters is largely responsible.

What stands out:

-There are 14,694 people on Kalshi who have significantly better predictive ability than other traders. This is measured by Brier skill score, which tracks trader calibration.

-They provide their forecasts to the whole platform, not just the top few markets. Skilled traders are active in 97.3% of markets.

-Timing and category change behavior: for example, superforecasters enter economic markets earlier, and sports markets later.

-These traders aren’t concentrated in the coasts or major cities. They come from all around the country, with Wyoming having the most per capita.

Prediction markets provide an incentive for smart people to do research, think rationally, and share their views with the world.

This incentive has brought almost 15,000 superforecasters to Kalshi, who create a public good by providing accurate forecasts to nearly every market on the platform.

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

@NathanMeininger Hochul out here tryna ban PMs not realizing having 10% of my net worth on her winning highly incentivizes me to vote for her

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

@TheGrandeTop10 I would prefer Iowa but would be ok with this.

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

Big Tomato doesn’t want you to see this

[For Our Futures @foronionfutures]

HAPPENING NOW in downtown Chicago, outside the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the historic center of onion futures trading

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

@GaetenD Turek needs to step up 🙏

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

@archaicmf Based

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

These 9 am games need to go - 15hrs of straight football on back to back days is too much

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

@thebeaglebets That’s when REAL football is played

[PredictionMarketTrader @PredMTrader]

@DataBasedBets