Imre Varga

Economist (Msc), escaped corporate (Retail, IT, Telco) manager. #Hodler. 21 stocks portfolio.
$NIO #BTC $HOOD #ETH bull.
Property believer.

[Bloomberg @business]

China’s largest fully electric SUV is racing up the nation’s sales charts, giving carmaker Nio Inc. a much-needed boost to its finances and bucking the broader downturn that’s gripped the sector. https://t.co/arfME91rjA

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@AfonsoEV_ Pls stop posting shit like this

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@DCDOWORK @AfonsoEV_ Right! This article is a piece of shit

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@gunsnrosesgirl3 Blood pressure pill for sure

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

These are the registration numbers for last week. To have 150k in the last quarter we need monthly 50k, weekly 11666 registrations (assuming flat months an no month by month development). 7050 for last week is not bad, but by far not enough $NIO #NIO

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@NIONenad Fucked up market.

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@WilliamLiNIO @grok what time is this event CET

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

ONVO L90 and also ES8 in some weeks finally getting $NIO where it belongs. To the top!

[William Li @WilliamLiNIO]

I'm thrilled to share that, less than one month since ONVO L90 deliveries began, today we delivered the 10,000th to our user, the well-known Chinese actor Mr. Guo Tao and his family at Chengdu Motor Show 2025!🎉 Plus, the 7-seater version also debuts here, and display cars are now available in ONVO stores across 60+ cities. Let's Jiadian!⚡
#NIO #ONVO #L90 #BlueSkyComing

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@MMCrypto Give max 5 years and gold will become the second behind #BTC

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@Ashcryptoreal Can not wait to see them bleed out

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@grok what do you expect the price of $NIO to be in 5 years? Triangulate a single price target through different approaches.

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@cagiago_ @grok @grok and me?

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

Welcome back at 5.00 $NIO

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@NIONenad Happy to join if you need support

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@valanz_m @grok can u pls summarize the video

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

https://t.co/M384MUjxZZ
The Hungarian AutoWallis Group has agreed to acquire the exclusive import rights of the $NIO brand in Hungary, Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania.

[jan dekkers @jan_dekkers]

100 is for pussies. To estimate what $Nio needs to become a $200 stock in 3 years, we’ll model based on market cap, P/S ratio, and revenue growth.

1. Target Market Cap

Nio has ~1.7 billion shares. At $200/share, its market cap would need to be:

1.7B × $200 = $340 billion

This would place Nio in the same league as Tesla's current valuation.

2. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio Context

Legacy automakers: ~0.3–1 P/S

BYD, Li Auto: ~2–4 P/S

Tesla (historically bullish): ~6–10 P/S

For Nio to justify tech-like multiples, it needs high growth, strong margins, and a global presence.

3. Required Revenue to Justify Valuation

To justify a $340B market cap, here’s the revenue needed at different P/S ratios:

At P/S 4: $85 billion revenue

At P/S 6: $56.7 billion

At P/S 8: $42.5 billion

At P/S 10: $34 billion

Nio’s 2023 revenue was ~$7.5B, so it would need 5x–11x growth in 3 years.

4. Required Growth Rate (CAGR)

To grow from $7.5B to:

$34B requires ~63% CAGR

$42.5B requires ~79% CAGR

$56.7B requires ~96% CAGR

$85B requires ~121% CAGR

These are aggressive rates, but not impossible if Nio scales like Tesla did between 2019–2022.

5. What Nio Must Do

Massively scale production
Global expansion, particularly in Europe and (possibly) North America. Needs diverse lineup of competitive EVs.

Improve gross margins
Move from ~10–13% margins to 20–30% to attract tech-like valuation.

Monetize tech
Grow high-margin services like battery-swapping, subscriptions (ADAS, infotainment), and BaaS.

Achieve profitability
Investors will demand a clear path to positive earnings and free cash flow.

Overcome geopolitical risk
Reduce reliance on China-only operations, improve transparency, and consider non-China listings to attract global capital.

To become a $200 stock by 2028, Nio must grow revenue to $34B–$85B, maintain a 6–10 P/S, and shift from a speculative EV play to a profitable, tech-driven platform.

It’s a high bar—but theoretically achievable if growth, sentiment, and execution align.

Target Price: $100

P/S 4 → $42.5B Revenue → 78.3%

P/S 6 → $28.33B Revenue → 55.7%

P/S 8 → $21.25B Revenue → 41.5%

P/S 10 → $17.0B Revenue → 31.4%

Target Price: $150

P/S 4 → $63.75B Revenue → 104.1%

P/S 6 → $42.5B Revenue → 78.3%

P/S 8 → $31.88B Revenue → 62.0%

P/S 10 → $25.5B Revenue → 50.4%

Target Price: $200

P/S 4 → $85B Revenue → 124.6%

P/S 6 → $56.67B Revenue → 96.2%

P/S 8 → $42.5B Revenue → 78.3%

P/S 10 → $34B Revenue → 65.5%

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

@NIONenad @realDonaldTrump True. #trump should agree with china that chinese ev manufacturers can come to US. US would win new factories (jobs, tax, etc..) Chinese ev-s would win new market. Last but not least my 8000 shares would skyrocket to da mooon! $NIO

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

Some things don't change even after 4 years. $NIO

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

Forget the short term $NIO speculation, it is killing your nerves. Focus on long term growth!

[Imre Varga @mrivarga]

Looking at sales numbers going up, I am happy I bought again 2 thousand shares at 3.07 and 3.40 in the last weeks. Blue sky is coming. $NIO