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Arise Unicorn $UNI
> V4 imminent
> Unichain mainnet imminent
> Atkins acceptance of SEC chair likely imminent (defi responds favourably to positive SEC changes)
> Within 10% of rolling 12 month highs
> Defi renaissance narrative
> Strong US affiliations (a current hot narrative)
> Retail crypto speculators picking up bigly
> Fee switch odds significantly up since Trump win
> Just achieved record monthly trading volumes across Ethereum Layer 2 networks
$DYDX
> Sitting at just over $1, HTF support
> DEX bluechip, DEFI - one of the best performing sectors since the Trump election win
> 100% of protocol fees distributed to $DYDX stakers
> DYDX Unlimited launch (catalyst) appears imminent. This is the biggest upgrade to the DYDX chain since inception:
1. Instant permissionless market listings, no listing fees, no gov vote needed (currently just c140 markets available on DYDX which requires governance approval + c4 days wait)
2. Under the current DYDX chain software, based on trading volumes, last 6 months of fees paid out to $DYDX stakers is ~$40m. With the newly proposed listing framework + bullish direction of the crypto markets, fees paid to $DYDX stakers should rapidly accelerate to $100m+ annually (enhancing token utility) going forward
3. Introduction of prediction markets = pertinent timing given current market interest in $DRIFT + Polymarket
> Return of founder (Antonio Juliano) last month + recent aggressive team changes = v clear intent to push the project forward
End.
$STX - added to position
1. Nakamoto activation (the most important part of this long awaited upgrade) finally confirmed to be going live in just 12 days - it appears some shorter sighted market participants thought this had already happened
2. $BTC is on the verge of a multi month range breakout coinciding w rising $BTC dominance - a reminder that $STX remains the number 1 $BTC beta and performs better than most alts in a $BTC led environment (the last 24hrs as an example)
3. Trump currently has a commanding lead over Harris heading into the Nov 5 elections. There is now the real possibility of $BTC being a US national asset held as treasury reserve if Trump wins. $STX is one of the best positioned alts to benefit from this narrative
4. Stacks ecosystem metrics / KPIs are outperforming - latest attached
5. Constructive HTF chart. Uptrending again on daily + > 100dma
$PEOPLE - swing long thesis
> The only election / US politics themed memecoin listed on tier 1 CEXs
> US centric crypto project. US founders, US capital seed funded
> Numero 1 CEX coin than can be directly correlated with the incoming US elections
> Has consistently demonstrated strong relative strength to market going into the recent election debates. Example - $PEOPLE did 50%+ in <2 wks ahead of the VP debates
> Fair distribution, 100% circ supply = zero unlocks over swing period
> Sitting just above its 25wma, going into what could be argued as its largest ever catalyst event in 30 days
Diamondback Energy Revises Q3 Production And Capital Guidance Following Endeavor Merger; Expects Oil Production Of 319-321 MBO/D And Cash CAPEX Of $675M-$700M $FANG
Bullas > Bearas. Why?
> Global monetary easing has just started w a bang (including the US + now China), paired w resilient US GDP figs and no clear evidence of US recession risk
> Global liquidity is already surging, at an all time high since the end of Aug, exceeding the 2021 COVID peak
> $DXY now showing signs of losing monthly support
> Key crypto market supply overhangs (Gox, German Gov, Gemini) have ultimately gone
> FTX stables payout (estimated at c$15bn) is progressing well to land over Q4. Sure - there’s challenge over what actual number comes back into crypto but it will still be 10 figs + you know this market will over speculate on it anyway
> US election outcome currently 50/50 - Trump saying he will have $BTC as a strategic national reserve asset. Harris now for the first time saying she will support the growth of the space. Whatever happens - it will be better than current Biden/Gensler setup, where we saw: 1. BlackRock scoop up $21bn of $BTC in 9 months + 2. $BTC put an ATH in before the recent Bitcoin cycle halving event when the FED rate was standing at 5.5%
> Stablecoin market cap just hit an ATH. Total stablecoin supply is up ~$40bn (+35%) since Jan + set to continue
> Bitcoin exchange depositing addresses at its lowest level since 2016
> $BTC options just got approved, goes live v soon (bulla note on this one attached)
> August saw $1.3 trn asset manager, Morgan Stanley become the first US Advisor to offer Bitcoin ETFs to its clients; rumour of other mainstream US advisors joining the ETF party are imminent
> We now enter a seasonal bullish period for crypto markets. $BTC average historical performance in Q4 is c+90%
End.
Bears, you better hope for a v high % of Gox sellers to soon join you in force otherwise your days look numbered rn
> German gov only started selling ~$3bn of $BTC < 3 wks ago, > 50% already sold + likely concludes in a wk or so at current pace
> x3 consecutive days of 9 fig $BTC ETF inflows straight after ‘$BTC lost a 4 month range’
>Recent evidence shows the largest $BTC whale addresses are in heavy accumulation. Behaviour resembling the last 2 cycle bottoms
> Crypto Trump now at 63% odds to win US election in Nov
> FTX paying out ~$16bn in cash back to previous users in Q4
> Odds now 70% Fed start rate cutting in September
> Global liquidity cycle on the up and looks like this
> Morgan Stanley w c2tr aum + other major wealth platforms set to approve $BTC ETFs within 6 wks
+ don’t forget markets forward look 🫡
FOMC has passed, Breakpoint finishes today
Pretty obvious to me what tier 1 market catalyst sits in the middle of the fairway this coming wk - coinciding w associated coins already challenging their current wkly highs this morning + above key HTF DMAs
$BNB - tailwinds into rest of the month
> Clear recent relative strength on BTC pair vs other majors
> CZ (retaining his full rights as majority shareholder) is being released in 16 days
> Binance launchpool for $CATI launching in 3 days
> Binance launchpool for $HMSTR launching in 6 days. Expecting potential significant interest in staking $BNB on this one given $HMSTR has 250m+ players
> $BNB restaking launch imminent
$ENS
Taken on spot - a v strong candidate for Q3
> We now have confirmation that the $ETH ETF should launch this summer. $ENS was best performing beta upon the recent ETF approval
> Vitalik endorsement continues, only 3 wks ago saying $ENS is ETHs most successful non financial app. Beta profile only getting stronger
> Enhanced project level fundas w recent news of extending the protocol to a Layer 2 network
> Down ~30% in 12 days, sitting around 100dma. Has tested late $20s multiple times - sellers bend over on next attempt imo, fresh air above
$CFX
> The go to China / Hong Kong narrative coin
> A BTC beta narrative coin w the imminent launch of their layer 2 solution
Bought a SPOT bag here in market weakness for a swing. Despite harsh alt conditions, I think this one outperforms over the coming wks:
> Hong Kong now set to approve and launch $BTC ETFs this month
> Expect a lot of hype on these HK ETFs given (1) success of US launch, (2) China mainland equity funds are involved, (3) notably the Chinese gov have a double digit stake in China Asset Management (whos sub yday submitted a spot $BTC ETF application)
> Announced last month, $CFX is also facilitating the beta-testing of the Hong Kong Dollar-backed stablecoin, AxHKD, on its platform
> $CFX is down c40% in 3wks, early 0.30s is historic HTF support
> Set to launch their new EVM compatible $BTC layer 2 solution end April / early May